| | | | Wednesday, July 2, 2025 | | We spent so many years saying, "If only Edward Cabrera figures out how to throw strikes consistently," that I had pretty much given up on the possibility that it might actually happen. | | Cabrera's always had high-end stuff. That hasn't been the issue. His fastball has always sat comfortably in the high-90s, with a changeup that comes in harder than a lot of Hall of Famers' fastballs, plus a curveball and slider with significant movement and velocity. The pieces to be an impact arm were always there. | | But his command has never been anywhere close to MLB-quality, especially on his four-seam fastball. And that's the pitch that is supposed to be the easiest to command – there's a reason most pitchers throw their four-seamers most often when they are behind in the count. But that hasn't really been Cabrera's approach, because he's never had the ability to throw the fastball where he wants to consistently. | | But that all appears to be changing, and the best stretch of Cabrera's career culminated in the best start of his career Tuesday against the Twins. And, it shouldn't come as a surprise, given the previous paragraph, that this has all come with Cabrera basically ditching that four-seamer. | | On Wednesday, Cabrera threw that pitch just five times on 93 pitches. He led the way with his changeup (which has long been typical for him), with his slider coming in second with a 24% usage rate. And then? The sinker, which has become the go-to heater for Cabrera this season. | | | | Cabrera is losing some swing-and-miss potential by switching from the four-seamer to the sinker, but at least when the sinker gets hit, and it's not like the sinker is the kind of elite groundball pitch you see from other pitchers – his average launch angle allowed on the pitch is 12 degrees, significantly higher than the league average of 5 degrees on sinkers. In fact, Cabrera's sinker hardly looks like a good pitch on its own, with a .396 expected wOBA allowed on the pitch entering this start. But that's a lot better than the .497 mark allowed on the four-seamer (it was .426 last season), and if he commands the pitch better and tunnels it better with the rest of his arsenal, it's very obviously a change worth making. | | That's not the only chance Cabrera has made. As Eno Sarris noted a few weeks ago, Cabrera lowered his arm angle and has had significantly better command since the start of May. Add it all up, and he's down to a 2.05 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in that time, with a 26.2% strikeout rate and 9.0% walk rate. That walk is still higher than you'd like, but it's a lot better than Cabrera's career 12.8% rate – and his 17.2% K-BB% rate would be the 25th-best in baseball among qualifiers for the season. That's good enough. | | Cabrera isn't an ace all of a sudden, of course. Even in this great stretch, he has as many starts of four or fewer innings as quality starts (two each), and he's still backed by a mediocre team, albeit one currently riding an eight-game winning streak! But this is clearly the best we've ever seen from Cabrera, and it's the first time we've ever really seen something that looks like sustainable success from him before. Maybe he'll lose the feel for his improved command and turn back into a pumpkin, but this is the kind of stretch we've been literally waiting years for from Cabrera. He's only 52% rostered right now, so I suggest you go ahead and add him just in case these past two months represent him finally living up to his potential. | | Here's what else you need to know about from Tuesday's action around MLB: | | | | Wednesday's top waiver-wire targets | | Brandon Woodruff, SP, Brewers (86%) – Woodruff isn't actually widely available at this point, so I'm kind of shoe-horning him in here in the waiver-wire segment because he's going to make his season debut this weekend against the Marlins, and I don't want that news to get buried. Mostly because … I don't think Woodruff actually needs to be rostered in nearly as many leagues as he is at this point. Woodruff hasn't pitched at the MLB level since September of 2023 due to serious shoulder surgery, and while his results have been solid on his rehab assignment, I just don't think that's going to translate against major-league hitters. Woodruff has a 2.79 ERA across 10 starts, seven of them at Triple-A, and despite the solid run prevention mark, everything else looks like a shell of himself. Most specifically, the fastball velocity is down from 95.8 mph in 2023 to just 91.9 so far, which is a big concern for a pitcher who was as fastball dependent as Woodruff before the injury. Of the 74 strikeouts he generated in 2023, for example, 52 came on either the four-seamer or sinker. His four-seamer was one of the truly elite pitches in baseball, consistently generating whiff rates in the 30% range while limiting damage on contact. It's not impossible that Woodruff could do the same with a 92 mph fastball, but that doesn't seem like a bet you should be making. If you already have him on your roster, it's fine to keep him around, but unless he really impresses this weekend – I'm talking more than a strikeout per inning, preferably with impressive swing-and-miss numbers – I don't think he looks like someone who needs to be held on to once you can't just slide him into an IL spot. | | Kyle Stowers, OF, Marlins (65%) – Given Stowers' limited track record, it seemed reasonable enough to respond to a 31-game homerless streak by writing his hot start off as just that. But Stowers doesn't want to be cast aside with the likes of early-season flashes in the pan like Zach McKinstry or Kristian Campbell, and he's made himself Fantasy relevant again with four homers in his past eight games, including one Tuesday as part of a two-hit game against the Twins. Stowers is back up to a .283/.359/.509 line for the season, and while the batting average especially feels pretty unsustainable, the underlying numbers actually suggest he might have underperformed his power metrics to date. I don't know if I buy Stowers as a high-.800s OPS bat in perpetuity, but if he's just a flash in the pan, that pan's been hot for a pretty long time. Might as well stick with him until the wheels fall off, if I can mix my metaphors. | | Andre Pallante, SP, Cardinals (34%) – I think this one was mostly about the matchup, as Pallante silenced the Pirates over seven innings with just one run allowed but also just three strikeouts to two walks. Pallante gets a ton of groundballs, but that's about all he does at an above-average level, with average-ish walk rates and very weak strikeout rates. That's not to say he can't be useful, of course, but Pallante is probably only as good as his matchups. The good news is that he's currently projected to be a two-start pitcher next week with matchups against the Nationals and Braves on the way. Those are pretty good matchups, which makes Pallante a pretty good streaming target. | | Shay Whitcomb, 3B, Astros (2%) – I hope the Astros give Whitcomb a chance to play some after he was recalled with Jeremy Peña placed on the IL Tuesday. Whitcomb hasn't done much at the MLB level, but he also hasn't really gotten many chances – just 55 plate appearances spread across a few different promotions over the past year or so. He has remained a very productive hitter at Triple-A, hitting .280/.360/.582 this season with 19 homers, and he even added 26 steals to go along with 25 homers in 108 games last season. He's worth a look in AL-only leagues, especially with his demonstrated ability to play second base, third base, and even a little bit of shortstop, along with the outfield corners. | | | | Tuesday's standouts | | Max Fried, Yankees @TOR: 6 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – Fried just didn't have it in this one, and he still managed to get through six innings. That's the nice thing about aces – even when things don't quite go right for them, it usually isn't a disaster. Fried is unlikely to sustain his current 2.13 ERA, but even if he pitches closer to his 3.02 FIP, you're still talking about a must-start, top-12 pitcher. Which makes calling him a "sell-high candidate" kind of hard to justify. | | Joe Ryan , Twins @MIA: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – This was a tough-luck loss for Ryan, but I remain very impressed by how he's pitching this season. Despite his velocity still being a bit down from last season, it isn't impacting him – his fastball was actually his best pitch in this one, generating six of his 10 whiffs. Ryan had some strikeout issues early in the season, but he's up to a near-career-best 29.1% strikeout rate now, with peripherals that mostly match up to his 2.75 ERA. If he's not an ace at this point, it's mostly due to lingering concerns about the shoulder injury that ended his 2024 season prematurely. | | Shane Baz, Rays vs. ATH: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 11 K – Baz remade himself in recent weeks with a cutter-heavy approach , but he pulled back on that new pitch Tuesday, and it certainly didn't hold him back. Baz led with his fastball in this one, and why not, as he generated a truly bonkers 14 whiffs on just 22 swings by expertly filling up the top of the zone with the pitch. He also had the curveball working well, and while the cutter didn't generate a whiff in this one, maybe its presence is enough to help the other two primary pitches play up. Baz introduced the cutter four starts ago and has a 2.67 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 27 innings of work in that stretch. We've been fooled before, but I do think we have to move Baz up in the rankings after the past two starts. I don't think I'm ready to declare him an ace, or anything, but I can't see myself sitting him at this point. | | Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks vs. SF: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – It's these flashes that make Gallen most frustrating, somehow. He's been awful for most of the season, but he's also had just enough truly great starts to make it feel like you're really risking something if you give up on him. Gallen buried the curveball down below the zone consistently – he threw just four of 26 in the strike zone – and the Giants couldn't lay off of it, swinging at 60% of curveballs out of the zone. His fastball sat mostly in the middle of the zone, but with the curveball working that well, he was able to steal a bunch of strikes, leading to a 38 called-plus-swinging strike rate with the pitch. Gallen's stuff is mostly still there, so it just comes down to consistently executing, something he hasn't done much of. But these flashes of upside show he's still capable of. I'm trying to hold on to him if I can, and the schedule sets up really well for him to close out the first half well, with matchups against the Royals and Angels coming up. Let's hope he can carry this over. | | Grant Holmes, Braves vs. LAA: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 K – 27 whiffs, including 16 with that slider that looks like it legitimately might be one of the best pitches in baseball. Holmes' fastball is still pretty iffy, and his control has been downright bad lately (18 walks in 31.2 innings over his past six starts), so I'm not sure he'll ever be much more than a high-3.00s ERA guy. But with the strikeout upside, that's good enough to make him must-start. | | Matthew Boyd, Cubs vs. CLE: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – I want to call Boyd a "sell-high candidate," I'm just not sure anyone is really buying him. He does have a sub-3.00 ERA since the start of last season, so maybe that's enough to get the job done. But my hunch is that there just isn't much excitement around Boyd despite the results, and I don't think he's so bad that this is a "get out while you can" situation – I just think he's probably more like a 3.65 ERA guy than his current 2.65 mark. | | Gavin Williams, Guardians @CHC: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K – Williams is kind of the new Edward Cabrera. The upside is clearly there, but the command just isn't anywhere near where it needs to be. He'll keep tinkering with the pitch mix, but until he figures out how to throw strikes consistently, I'm not sure it matters – and the fact that he's getting worse as the season goes on makes it hard to have faith. I want to keep Williams stashed, but if it comes down to cutting him for Cabrera, I think I'd do it. | | Tyler Anderson, Angels @ATL: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – There's basically no margin for error here. When Anderson is executing well, he can have good starts, even good months. But he's been awful lately before this one (6.93 ERA in June), so I don't see much reason to chase this one. I think this one is more about the Braves offense continuing to scuffle than anything else. | | Chase Dollander, Rockies vs. HOU: 2.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – Dollander doesn't matter for Fantasy at this point. But he could. I just wanted to include a link here to a very good piece from Mario Delgado Genzor at BaseballProspectus.com about what is holding Dollander back and how he might be able to tap into his obvious upside. | | George Springer, OF, Blue Jays – Like I wrote about Stowers, it's good to see Springer bouncing back after it looked like he was turning back into a pumpkin. He homered twice Tuesday en route to a seven-RBI game, and he's now hitting .462 with three homers and 15 RBI over his past seven games. Springer made some adjustments to begin the season, and it looks like he's found an answer for the counterpunch pitchers have thrown at him since. That's what you want to see. | | News and notes | | Yordan Alvarez has been shut down from all activities after reporting renewed soreness in his hand while taking swings Monday. He'll visit a specialist within the next couple of days. Hopefully, it's no big deal, but this feels ominous. | | Tyler Glasnow is expected to ramp up to 75 pitches in his next rehab start with Triple-A on Thursday, and will probably be cleared to return from his shoulder injury after one more start after that. | | Blake Snell is expected to face live hitters on Wednesday as he works his way back from his own shoulder issue. | | Michael Kopech was placed on the IL with right knee inflammation. | | Kerry Carpenter was placed on the IL with a right hamstring strain. | | Max Scherzer said he experienced some forearm tightness after his thumb began to fatigue during his start against the Yankees on Monday. That's worrisome, as Scherzer has talked about how the numerous injuries he has dealt with over the past few years have largely stemmed from lingering issues with the thumb and trying to manage that. | | In a surprising turn of events, Hunter Goodman was not placed on the IL and instead started for the Rockies on Tuesday. And he hit two homers. That's a tough pill for anyone who benched him to swallow. | | Willson Contreras left after being hit on his left hand by a fastball from Paul Skenes. X-rays came back negative, and he's being viewed as day-to-day for now. | | Josh Naylor was originally supposed to be back in the lineup but was scratched as he continued to deal with lingering neck issues. | | Jordan Westburg has missed four straight with that injury to his left index finger. | | Jacob Wilson was scratched from the lineup due to right hamstring soreness. | | Bo Bichette was out of the lineup for the second straight day after tweaking his right knee. | | Nolan Arenado was out of the lineup with that right index finger injury he suffered on Sunday. | | Sean Manaea was supposed to resume a rehab assignment at Double-A on Tuesday, but rain got in the way. He'll likely pitch Wednesday instead and could be on the verge of coming back from his oblique and elbow injuries. My expectations are muted after he required a cortisone shot in his elbow, but I'm interested to see if he can carry over last year's second-half breakout. | | Trent Grisham is likely headed for the IL with a left hamstring injury. | | The Rockies have recalled outfield prospect Yanquiel Fernandez from Triple-A. The 22-year-old is hitting .284 with an .849 OPS at Triple-A this season -- I'm just not sure where he's going to play. A name to watch in deeper leagues if and when he gets in the lineup. | | Gabriel Arias was placed on the IL with a left ankle sprain. | | Christian Koss was placed on the IL with a left hamstring strain, Luis Matos was recalled for the Giants. | | Had some rough weather on Tuesday, with three rainouts as well as a suspended game between the Reds and Red Sox. We're projected to have 19 games Wednesday. | | | | | | | | CBS Sports Golazo Network | | 24/7 Sports News | Watch LIVE global soccer coverage on the CBS Sports Golazo Network, available FOR FREE on the CBS Sports App, Pluto TV and streaming on Paramount+.
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