Gavin Stone is one of the toughest players in baseball to figure out right now. That might seem like a weird thing to say about a guy who just tossed a complete game shutout to lower his ERA to 2.73, but that's where we're at.

Stone was, obviously, excellent Wednesday, though the matchup against the White Sox certainly helped. His command was impeccable, but he also allowed 23 balls in play with an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph and probably had at least a little bit of good luck on his side – White Sox hitters went just 2 for 6 on batted balls with an xBA of at least .500. And, despite the dominant line, Stone had a merely decent 10 swinging strikes on 103 pitches, with a pretty mediocre 26% CSW (called-plus-swinging-strike) rate.

And that's kind of the story of Stone's season right now. The results are, obviously, terrific, especially since the start of May – he has a 1.97 ERA over his past 10 starts. In those 10 starts, he has 52 strikeouts in 64 innings of work, with just 13 walks and five homers allowed. Add it all up, and Stone has a strikeout rate below 20%, a walk rate around 7%, and very good quality of contact metrics  – his .347 xwOBA on contact entering Wednesday's night was quite a bit better than the .369 league average.

And with that Dodgers team backing him up, maybe that's all that matters. Okay, maybe he isn't quite sub-3.00 ERA good, but if his 3.75 xERA is more like what we should expect, isn't that enough to make him a must-start pitcher on the Dodgers? Probably so, but the margin for error might be thin, given his lack of strikeouts. He'll continue to be dependent on having plus control and excellent results on balls in play, and the number of pitchers you can consistently rely on to thrive in that manner is pretty small. There's nothing wrong with being Chris Bassitt, but there's a reason there's only one Chris Bassitt. 

Does that make Gavin Stone a sell-high candidate? Yeah, sure. Anyone with a sub-2.00 ERA over a multi-month span is probably a sell-high candidate. But that doesn't mean I expect the bottom to fall out. Stone has been a much-improved pitcher, and he deserves credit for that, even if I don't quite buy what he's done so far. 

Here's what else you need to know about from Wednesday's action, beginning with the top waiver-wire targets: 

Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds (61%) – The excitement around Noelvi Marte's expected return started to dissolve when he went on his minor-league rehab assignment, which saw him go just 8 for 53 with 15 strikeouts in 12 innings. However, despite those struggles, Marte is with the Reds and it sounds like he's going to be in the lineup Thursday after all. Given his struggles, it seems like there's a decent chance Marte struggles too much to matter for Fantasy, but he's a consensus top-25 prospect in baseball who hit .316/.366/.456 with a 14-homer, 28-steal pace in 35 games last season. There's risk, to be sure, but the upside here is pretty obvious, and is worth chasing at a time when offense remains frustratingly hard to find. 

Jhonkensy Noel, OF, Guardians (6%) – Have you been pining for the days of Franmil Reyes in Cleveland? Well, I've got great news for you. That might be an overly simplistic way of describing Noel as a player, but it probably isn't wrong – he's got truly massive power potential, and he wasted no time in showing that off with a 413-foot, 107-mph homer in his first major-league plate appearance. And, of course, there's a ton of swing and miss in his game, too, which he also showed off by striking out twice in his debut. Noel's production has really jumped around in the minors, and he is a career .243/.319/.467 hitter in 207 games at Triple-A, where he has struck out 24% of the time. He's cut that to 21% so far this season and is extremely young for the amount of experience he has at the highest level of the minors, not turning 23 for another three weeks. Maybe he's made the necessary adjustments to tap into his power a bit more consistently … or maybe he's just starting to figure out Triple-A after spending all of last year. Scouts aren't necessarily optimistic about Noel's chances of making this all work, but he does have a standout skill, and is worth a look in deeper leagues just in case his apparent leap at Triple-A this season is real. 

Brandon Marsh, OF, Phillies (46%) – I'm not sure Marsh will ever be consistent enough to truly matter in all Fantasy leagues, but he's pretty useful when he gets hot, and hopefully Wednesday was the start of him getting hot. He went 4 for 4 with a homer and three other batted balls over 90 mph. Marsh hasn't been doing much else prior to that, with no homers since April 26, so again, the hope is this is the start of Marsh getting hot. Let's see. 

Spencer Arrighetti, SP, Astros (19%) – 58 pitchers have had at least 10 strikeouts in a start this season prior to Wednesday night, and it goes without saying that not all of them are Fantasy-relevant names. Even if you limit it to 10 strikeouts and zero walks like Arrighetti had, you'll still get some names like Dan Dunning, DJ Herz, Casey Mize, and Chris Paddack who are on the fringes of Fantasy relevance, at best. The likeliest outcome with Arrighetti is that he's part of that latter group, especially having done it against the Rockies away from Coors Field, one of the most exploitable matchups in the game these days. Still, Arrighetti has flashed upside before, and has a couple of secondary pitches that look like they should be real weapons – he had 10 of his 13 whiffs Wednesday with his curveball and sweeper, a sign of what those pitches can be capable of. Expectations moving forward should be tempered, but with matchups against the Blue Jays and Twins in his next two scheduled starts, Arrighetti might just be able to close out the first half strong. 

Hayden Birdsong, SP, Giants (7%) – The results weren't overwhelming for Birdsong's debut, but I saw plenty to get excited about here, led by his fastball, which was actually even more impressive than I expected. He averaged 96.2 mph with the pitch and generated five of his nine whiffs against the Cubs. It wasn't a dominant showing overall, but it's a legitimate four-pitch mix with what could be a very good four-seamer, and Birdsong will call one of the best parks in baseball for a pitcher home if he sticks around. If he stays on schedule, Birdsong's next two starts would be in Atlanta and Cleveland, which is probably asking too much to expect him to be useful for Fantasy there. But in a deeper league, he's worth a speculative add just to see where he goes from here. 

David Festa, SP, Twins (12%) – Festa's profile is pretty similar to Birdsong's, as neither has overwhelming numbers in the minors nor huge prospect pedigree. But he has a very good fastball and pretty massive strikeout numbers to his name in Triple-A, and looks like he can be a pretty useful Fantasy option if he can keep the walks under control – he has a 10.9% walk rate in 72 career Triple-A innings. I'm not sprinting out to add Festa right now, but I'm interested to see how he looks in his debut Thursday against the Diamondbacks.

Zac Gallen threw 67 pitches in a simulated game Monday and will next have a bullpen session Thursday. Given that, it sure sounds like Gallen could be back relatively soon, possibly by next week if he avoids any issues with his hamstring. 

Max Scherzer said Monday that he was removed after five innings in his season debut due to thumb soreness. Despite this, he's still expected to make his next start Friday in Baltimore, but I think I'd rather not start him until we see him get through a start without issue. 

Xander Bogaerts took batting practice on the field Wednesday. He's on the IL with a broken left shoulder and could return at some point in late July.

Justin Verlander hasn't resumed playing catch and won't accompany the team to New York this weekend. I'd be surprised if he was back by next week. 

Josh Jung said Wednesday that he expects to resume swinging a bat in a few days. He's now dealing with inflammation in that surgically-repaired wrist, but may not be too far away if the inflammation goes down in the coming days.

Brewers GM Matt Arnold said Devin Williams could return from the 60-day IL sooner than his initial mid-to-late July timeline. He has top-five upside among closers and should get his job back when he proves up to it, so make sure he's not on waivers in your league. 

Nolan Arenado returned to the lineup after missing two games with a left forearm injury.

Joey Ortiz was removed Wednesday due to a neck injury. 

Jeimer Candelario was out of the lineup due to hamstring tendinitis. Apparently he's been nursing the issue for more than a week and is considered day-to-day.

Lars Nootbaar could begin a rehab assignment as soon as this weekend. He's been out since late May with a strained left oblique.

Spencer Turnbull was removed from his start after just three innings due to a sore right shoulder. Apparently he felt a little grab in his right shoulder but isn't especially concerned about the injury. It's bad timing as Turnbull just returned to the rotation Wednesday, so hopefully, it ends up being a minor issue. 

Gary Sanchez was placed on the IL with a left calf strain.

Dylan Cease, Padres vs. WAS: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – Cease entered this start in a rut, putting up a 6.43 ERA over his previous eight starts, and given how much he struggled last season, I'm sure plenty of you were worried he was losing the rope. I wasn't, and it's because his control never abandoned him, and that's always been the biggest issue for Cease. He took advantage of a good matchup to get back on track in this one, and he remains a top-10 pitcher for me the rest of the way. 

Luis Gil, Yankees @NYM: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 2 K – So, was May just a fluke? For basically the first time in his career, Gil was consistently throwing strikes in May, and he looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, he had a 4.01 ERA in five April starts with an 18% walk rate, and now he has a 6.45 ERA and a 13.5% walk rate in five June starts. Gil is obviously an incredibly talented pitcher, but we have a very small sample size of him pitching at a high level, and I think there's a very good chance that ends up being the high point of his season. And, given concerns about his ability to hold up to a 100-plus inning workload and the likelihood of the Yankees limiting his innings moving forward, I think there's a good chance Gil's value has already peaked, unfortunately. 

Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers @MIL: 7 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Eovaldi will have these stretches where he pitches like an ace, but he almost always ends up settling in as a high-3.00s ERA pitcher, and would you look at that, his ERA has risen from 2.70 to 3.45 over his past five starts. Eovaldi is a fine pitcher, but he's rarely the difference maker he looks like when things are going well. 

Ryan Pepiot, Rays vs. SEA: 5.1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Pepiot's fastball has been an elite pitch, but he has struggled with consistency when the rest of his arsenal isn't working, so it was interesting to see how his slider played up Wednesday. He threw it 19% of the time had a slightly different movement profile than usual, generating a bit more vertical break and a bit less horizontal break. Is that why he generated five swinging strikes on eight swings? It's too small a sample size to say, but given how much Pepiot needs the rest of his arsenal to start carrying more weight, it's an interesting thing to keep an eye on. 

Brady Singer, Royals vs. MIA: 7.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Singer has bounced back nicely from a rough stretch at the beginning of June, and yet I remain unmoved. He had a 4.64 xERA coming into this start, because he just still gives up too much hard contact and doesn't get enough strikeouts. That can work for stretches, especially against teams like the Marlins, but I'm also totally willing to drop Singer at any point for any pitcher I think has more upside, or at least a more sustainable path to utility. There are probably 80 pitchers who qualify. 

DJ Herz, Nationals @SD: 3.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K – After his 13-strikeout, 0-walk outing a few starts ago, it was worth adding Herz just to see if he could build on that. Well, he made one mediocre start in Coors Field, and then did this against a pretty middling Padres lineup, so I think you can go ahead and drop him. Herz has solid stuff, but generated just three whiffs on 27 swings today, so it just isn't working for him. Keep an eye out for improvement in the future, but watch from a distance. 

Bryce Elder, Braves @STL: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – Obviously, Elder found a lot of success early on last season, and was pitching well in Triple-A, so I don't want to write him off entirely here. Especially since he came out throwing 1.8 mph harder than his earlier stint in the majors, while also leaning a lot more on his slider, throwing it 41% of the time. That's always been his best pitch, so maybe leaning on it more can make Elder find a bit more sustainable success. On the other hand, well, there's a reason I didn't put Elder in the waiver-wire section of the newsletter. 

Joey Estes, Athletics @LAA: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – This is really the first time we've seen much strikeout upside from Estes, who had maxed out at six strikeouts just once before this. He generated 15 swinging strikes in this one, though I'm not sure there's much reason to buy into it – his velocity and movement profiles were pretty similar to where they had been before, and only his changeup even had a whiff rate higher than 20% entering this start. Keep an eye on it, given his youth, but I'm not ready to buy in just yet. 

Luis Ortiz, Pirates @CIN: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – Ortiz had a whopping 19 swinging strikes on 85 pitches in this one, which is even more impressive when you realize he had just a 17.8% strikeout rate entering this start despite pitching exclusively in relief prior to this. We've seen very little strikeout upside from Ortiz in his MLB career, and his new pitch this season, the cutter, had just a 16.4% whiff rate before today, so I'm inclined to write this one off as a one-time thing. But, again, it's something to keep an eye on moving forward if he gets another start. 

Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets – Alvarez just might be figuring things out. Since coming back from his thumb injury, Alvarez is hitting .415/.500/.732 after he went 3 for 3 with a homer and a walk Wednesday. He has struck out just eight times in 48 trips to the plate in that time, and is increasingly drawing rave reviews for his growth as a catcher in addition to what he's done as a hitter. We might just be witnessing the blossoming of a superstar here, and I'm ranking Alvarez as a top-five catcher at this point. 

Jackson Chourio , OF, Brewers – Chourio is hitting better lately, sporting a .302/.348/.492 line in June, though there's still plenty of reason to be skeptical, even before you realize that the "home run" he hit Wednesday was an inside-the-parker that probably should have been a single. Even with better results in June, Chourio's approach remains an issue, as his average launch angle is down to two degrees, and his expected wOBA in June is just .287. I can see the case for Chourio being better served keeping the ball down and trying to let his athleticism play up, and I think it's generally fine to continue to hang on to him in the hopes that he figures it out and becomes a difference maker in the second half. I just wish there was more reason to believe he was already figuring it out.