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Friday, March 19, 2021
The Patriots have re-made their offense, the Washington Football Team added a lot of excitement to its attack, and now the Dolphins have found a key piece to help build around Tua Tagovailoa.
There are still some big names left to sign, and there are still some teams with big holes to fill heading into the weekend, but Thursday saw a few signings with some pretty serious ramifications for Fantasy, with Kenyan Drake joining the Raiders and Will Fuller signing a one-year make-good deal with the Dolphins. You should check out Thursday's emergency episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast to hear the reactions of Jamey Eisenberg and Heath Cummings to both big signings from Thursday, but spoiler alert: They don't love them
I'm a little more optimistic about Fuller heading to Miami, joining an offense that I think is ready to take a step forward this season. You can read my thoughts below, but first, here's what I think about the Raiders puzzling decision to sign Drake. 
"What are the Raiders doing?"
That's how Dave Richard's breakdown of this signing begins, and it's a fair question. The Raiders picked Josh Jacobs with the 24th pick in the 2019 draft and have given him 18.4 carries and 2.6 targets per game in his two seasons as a pro, so they hardly seemed like a team in desperate need of an upgrade at running back. Devontae Booker was a cheap signing for them last offseason and got the job done as a backup, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and though he moved on to the Giants in free agency, nobody really had the Raiders pegged as a team likely to make a significant investment in a running back.
But, on a two-year deal worth potentially $14.5 million, this counts as a significant investment. This isn't just backup money, but it's for a backup, right? Drake was pretty underwhelming as Arizona's lead back in 2020, but he does have a pretty good history as a pass-catcher, with two 50-catch seasons in his past, and that's likely the role the Raiders have in mind for him. But is that all? Couldn't they have gone with Jalen Richard for that? No, this amount of money -- including more guaranteed money than Joe Mixon got on his extension last year -- suggests a more significant role than just that of a true backup or pass-catching specialist. 
How significant that role will end up being remains to be seen, but it goes without saying this is bad news for Jacobs. Before this signing, I had Jacobs projected for the third-most carries in the NFL, and he was just RB11 in my rankings in that role. I shaved off about 10% of his carries and a third of his targets, and that was enough to drop Jacobs to RB21 in my PPR rankings; Drake comes in at RB38. It's not what you want to see. 
In Arizona, Chase Edmonds obviously comes away looking better now that Drake is officially out of the picture. They'll probably still bring someone in, either in free agency or via the draft, but I've got Edmonds projected as RB18 as the starter, in large part thanks to a healthy role in the passing game. If the Cardinals don't make any big additions, he could be a solid third-rounder. He might even go ahead of Jacobs.  
The Dolphins were at the top of the list of teams looking for wide receiver help this offseason, and they landed one of the best out there Thursday as they agreed to a one-year deal with former Texan Will Fuller. And this seems like a match made in heaven for Miami. 
Fuller is coming off both a career-best season and a suspension for performance enhancing drugs, and he will miss the first game of the 2021 season as a result. Fuller set career-best marks across the board in just 11 games, and for the first time in his NFL career, he was able to avoid missing a game due to injury -- he left Week 2's catch-less game early with a hamstring injury, but missed no further time. He finished with 53 catches on 75 targets for 879 yards and eight touchdowns, and he certainly profiles as the Dolphins best receiver -- and a big help for second-year starter Tua Tagovailoa.
Fuller has benefited from playing with Deshaun Watson over the past four seasons, obviously, so I wouldn't expect him to be north of 11 yards per target, as he was in two of the past three seasons. However, his big-play ability should translate well, and should give the Dolphins their most dangerous downfield target. Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker are both solid downfield options as well, so there's no shortage of players for Tagovailoa to take shots with. Now he just has to hit those shots. 
Tagovailoa actually had a higher share of his passes travel at least 15 yards down the field than did Ryan Fitzpatrick, but there was a big difference in their effectiveness on those attempts. Fitzpatrick connected on 30 of 50 such passes, while Tagovailoa hit on just 38.2%. Fuller's track record suggests he should help quite a bit in that regard, but he also proved in 2020 he's not just a deep threat, as his average depth of target dropped to a career-low 12.5 yards and he consistently won in the intermediate range, as well. 
That all makes me think he's likely to step in as Miami's No. 1a receiver, with Parker and Gesicki slotting in behind him in a fairly concentrated pecking order. The Dolphins had hoped Preston Williams could emerge as the 1b to Parker's 1a, but now Parker will face less pressure thanks to Fuller's presence. I've got the two wide receivers projected for a roughly equal number of targets -- Fuller slightly higher on a per-game basis due to his one-game suspension -- with pretty similar production: 70 catches, 911 yards  and 6.5 touchdowns for Parker, and 75 catches, 1,018 yards and 7.5 touchdowns for Fuller. That puts Parker at WR37 and Fuller at WR25. 
That does assume some improvement from Tagovailoa, but that should be expected as he enters his second season with more help around him. And that's where the upside comes in for this team. Tagovailoa was a historically productive passer in college and, while he wasn't amazing as a rookie, he wasn't Jared Goff or Mitchell Trubisky-level bad. We've seen a lot of quarterbacks make a leap in their second season with a better situation around them, and Tagovailoa has that here. Another year removed from that hip injury, and who knows how much better he could get?
Miami's offense has a lot of potential, and Fuller only increased that potential. This could be one of those teams that takes a big leap forward in 2021, and Fuller will be a big part of that. If you can get him as a No. 2 WR, he's got upside to finish much higher. He showed us he's no one-trick pony in 2020, and now he's in a spot where he could build on that. 
News and Notes
  • Phillip Lindsay will not re-sign with the Broncos -- We'll see what this means for Lindsay when he eventually finds a place to play for 2021, but I think it's worth highlighting this because Melvin Gordon might currently be one of the most underrated players in Fantasy. He nearly rushed for 1,000 yards last season while missing a game and splitting work with Lindsay, and now he's probably in line for a 240-carry, 50-target workload. I'm pessimistic about the Broncos offense as a whole with Drew Lock at QB, but I still expect them to be better in 2021, and I've got Gordon projected as RB19 in PPR scoring right now. Jamey Eisenberg drafted Gordon as his No. 4 RB at No. 63 overall in our PPR mock draft from back in January, and he's being drafted 45th overall as RB23 in very early NFC drafts. Gordon might deserve to be a third-round pick, but he's the kind of veteran back nobody is excited to draft at this point. I expect I'll draft him quite often. 
  • Andy Dalton was told he will start for the Bears -- Well, Trubisky signed with the Bills and the Seahawks turned down their offer for Russell Wilson, so it was either this or Nick Foles again. Neither is exciting in any way, but Dalton probably provides a steadier hand than Foles. And reports that they met with Kenny Golladay on Thursday are pretty interesting. Maybe this won't be a train wreck? 
  • The Jets signed Keelan Cole -- Cole apparently had a pretty hot market for his services, but he's never had more than 748 yards in a season despite playing all 16 games every year. He gives the Jets some depth, but he's unlikely to be much more than a No. 3 WR in a bad pass offense. 
  • The Lions signed Breshad Perriman -- No joke, Perriman might actually be the Lions No. 1 receiver now. I still wouldn't rank him inside of the top 40 at the position, however. He's a big-play receiver playing with a QB who doesn't excel pushing the ball down the field, and he's likely overmatched facing the kind of defensive attention he would likely see as a primary option. This passing game is incredibly hard to get excited about right now. 
  • The Panthers signed David Moore -- Moore is a decent downfield receiver, but he's kind of redundant in an offense with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. He'll be the No. 3 WR in Carolina, but is unlikely to have much Fantasy appeal. The most interesting thing about this signing might be that D.J. Moore will likely have his full name on the back of his jersey. 
  • The Chargers signed Jared Cook -- There's your Hunter Henry replacement. Cook could be a Fantasy starter in this offseason, but he's unlikely to be much of a difference maker at this point. 
  • The Giants signed Kyle Rudolph -- Rudolph isn't nearly the same kind of athlete Evan Engram is, but he might be a more dependable option for Daniel Jones to target. That won't move the needle much for the Giants, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rudolph ends up playing more than Engram in 2021. 
  • The Bills signed Mitchell Trubisky -- Trubisky was a bust as the Bears hoped-for franchise QB, but as a backup in Buffalo, he's a pretty awesome fit. He's not the runner Josh Allen is, obviously, but he's pretty athletic, and should be able to run much of the same offense the Bills do with Allen. It's a nice insurance policy for a team with a lot of firepower and Super Bowl hopes. 
 
 
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