| | | | Friday, July 12, 2024 | | This is our last newsletter before the All-Star break, so here's what I'm going to need from you, my loyal readers: Your questions! | | I'm going to have my standard weekend recap on Monday morning, but after that, we've got four straight days with no real baseball action, so it's a good time to hit the reset button. I've already got my second-half sleepers, breakouts, and bust picks for you here, but that's only 30 players – I'm sure you've got questions about plenty of others, and this is your chance to get them answered. | | So send your biggest, toughest second-half questions my way at FantasyBaseball@CBSi.com with the subject line "Ask FFT" to be featured in a mailbag newsletter next week. We'll also have some All-Star break content for you next week, plus Scott White's mid-season top prospects update, and more to help you get ready for the second half of the season. | | For now, send those questions in, and let's get to what you need to know from Thursday's action around MLB: | | | | Friday's waiver targets | | | | Michael Busch, 1B, Cubs (62%) – Boy, when Busch gets hot, watch out. Busch's season-long OPS dipped as low as .766 in early June, and was still down below .800 11 games ago, which makes it awfully impressive that he's back up to .853 after this recent run. In the past 10 games, Busch has homered three times, and while he didn't go deep Thursday, he did hammer a couple of doubles during a 2-for-4 day that also included a walk, three runs, and two RBI. Busch has struck out just five times in the past 10 games and is hitting .400 in that span with eight extra-base hits, and while we've seen how quiet the bat can go when he gets cold, the overall stills looks pretty good for Fantasy. | | Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds (46%) – It feels like catcher is in a decent spot right now overall and Stephenson's hot play of late is part of that. He really struggled in June but was still making plenty of contact, and he's really turned it on in July, with four homers in his past three games. That has his season-long OPS up to .770 after Thursday's two-homer showing, and the underlying numbers suggest he should remain a pretty productive hitter for a catcher. It's not the most exciting profile in the world, but a catcher who can hit 18 or so homers without killing your batting average is worth using in two-catcher leagues, and even some one-catcher formats. | | Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Diamondbacks (72%) – I don't think Pfaadt is especially underrostered at this point, but if you wanted to add him where available, I don't think that's a terrible idea, especially in points leagues. He still seems prone to the occasional blowup that has kept his ratios inflated, but Pfaadt's ability to consistently pitch deep into games – 14 of 19 starts with at least six innings – is pretty notable for points leagues especially. He had the sweeper and fastball both working in this one and his velocity was up significantly, which is worth noting moving forward. | | Aaron Civale, SP, Brewers (47%) – We don't often expect pitchers to improve after leaving the Rays , but the Brewers clearly saw something in Civale they felt they could mold in trading for him last week. Through two starts, he has 14 strikeouts in 11.1 innings of work, and Thursday's was one of his best of the season, as he limited the Pirates to just one run over 6.1 innings in a tough-luck loss. Civale went with a more balanced approach Thursday, throwing his cutter, sinker, sweeper, and curveball between 16% and 32% of the time, and it worked out for him. I'm not sure there's much more than fringe starter upside here – but if he can pound the zone and avoid hard contact like he did Thursday, there's some appeal here. | | Jesus Sanchez, OF, Marlins (14%) – Sanchez has had pretty tremendous underlying numbers all season, but it was hard to get excited about it because it still just wasn't showing up consistently in games. That's starting to change lately, as Sanchez is now hitting .357 since the start of July after a two-double performance against the Astros Thursday. He had three homers in his previous seven games, too, so this wasn't just a one-game thing, either. Sanchez still really can't hit lefties, which limits his overall appeal, but he also has an elite 93.6 mph average exit velocity and 52.1% hard-hit rate and should at least be very useful in daily-lineup leagues where you can get him out of the lineup when the Marlins have lefties on the schedule. | | Masataka Yoshida, OF, Red Sox (49%) – We tend to think of free-swinging types as being especially streaky, but Yoshida's contact-forward approach has led to plenty of inconsistency in his brief MLB career so far. He struggled mightily in June, hitting .200 despite just seven strikeouts in 55 trips to the plate, and he actually fared much better in July despite nine strikeouts in 39 plate appearances. Maybe he's just swinging harder? Yoshida went 3 for 4 with a homer and four RBI Thursday, and his only out came on a 108-mph line drive that had a .630 expected batting average. Yoshida's whole profile would be a lot more appealing if he ran a bit more, but he should be a solid source of batting average, with some run and RBI upside in a Red Sox lineup that looks pretty formidable these days. | | | | News and Notes | | Yordan Alvarez was not in the lineup Thursday due to right hip tightness. This still seems like a day-to-day situation, but with the break coming up, maybe they opt to get him a full week of rest? Something to watch Friday for daily lineup leagues. | | Kyle Tucker played catch on the field before Thursday's game, the first time he's done any sort of work on field since going on the IL in early June. | | Zack Wheeler will not start Sunday against the A's. His MRI came back clean but the Phillies have opted to play it safe, which makes sense with the break coming up. He should be back in the rotation after the break. | | Bryce Harper was back in the lineup after missing Wednesday with a bruised left hand. | | Cody Bellinger was placed on the IL with a fracture in his left middle finger, which really complicates things for the Cubs, as Bellinger seemed like a trade candidate. I'd be surprised if he was back before the end of the month. Alexander Canario was recalled. Here's his minor-league line this season: .238 with 16 HR, 3 SB, .832 OPS, 31% K rate, 89.4 AVG EV in 59 games at Triple-A. Let's see if he can get in the lineup and get hot because he's a somewhat interesting power-hitting prospect. | | Devin Williams will begin a rehab assignment with High-A on Saturday. He's 67% rostered and should be universally rostered for his impending return. | | Jose Altuve announced that he will not participate in the All-Star Game in order to rest a sore left hand. | | Bo Bichette was diagnosed with a fascia strain in his right calf and was out of the lineup Thursday. This is the same calf that forced him on the IL last month, though it's not clear if he'll require another stint this time. It's just been a lost season for Bichette, and you have to wonder if he just hasn't been healthy at all. | | Oneil Cruz was back in the lineup after sitting out two games with hamstring soreness. | | Tommy Edman was scratched from Thursday's rehab start with "general soreness." Given how tough his recovery from wrist surgery has gone, hopefully, this doesn't represent a serious setback. | | Tyler Soderstrom was placed on the IL with a left wrist bone bruise. | | Jordan Montgomery could be ready to return from the IL immediately following the All-Star break. | | Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo confirmed that prospect Yilber Diaz will make another turn in their rotation Saturday following his quality start earlier in the week. | | | | Thursday's standouts | | Paul Skenes, Pirates @MIL: 7 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K – I mean, what more can you even say about this guy? Some may grumble that he was pulled with a no-hitter intact at 99 pitches, but for our purposes, it's hard to find any fault with what the Pirates are doing with Skenes right now. His splitter – his 94-mph splitter – is already one of the best pitches in baseball, and it's made his margin for error so much wider than it would have otherwise been. This is incredible because he was already the most hyped pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg before he even developed that pitch. Is he the best pitcher in baseball already? I think you can certainly make the case for it. After 11 starts. My goodness. | | Luis Castillo, Mariners @LAA: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Now that's more like it. Castillo has been surprisingly hittable this season, but he found his fastball Thursday, generating nine whiffs with it, while also allowing just an 85.3 mph average exit velocity. He's also continuing to tweak his slider, which was down 3.4 mph in this one with significantly more vertical break, a trend we saw last week. We know Castillo is an ace when he's right, but that tweak suggests he's aware that he hasn't been himself this season. I still more or less expect ace-level production from Castillo moving forward, and the fastball effectiveness last night was a good sign. | | Aaron Nola, Phillies vs. LAD: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – Admit it, you were feeling at least a little wary of starting Nola against the Dodgers . He's turned up the strikeouts lately, with 26 in his past three starts, and he did it by riding the curveball to 10 whiffs Thursday. Strikeouts were an issue for Nola earlier in the season, but his season-long rate is now nearly where it was last season, only with much better quality of contact allowed, hence the significantly improved results. Nola is probably always going to be a bit more inconsistent than you'd like from an ace, but an ace is what he is. | | Hunter Greene , Reds vs. COL: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – Is Greene an ace now too? It depends on how much you buy into his significantly improved quality of contact. Greene's strikeout rate is down from 30.5% to 27.6% even after this start, but he's been a much better pitcher because he isn't getting crushed when he does allow contact. In fact, it's gone from being the biggest liability in his game to arguably a strength, with his xwOBA on contact down from .384 to .317, one of the best marks of any starting pitcher. The problem is, that's an inherently noisy stat that takes a long time to stabilize, and it's harder to buy into it when Greene doesn't look like a drastically different pitcher otherwise – he's swapped out a changeup he used about 5.3% of the time last season for a splitter and a curveball he combines to throw 10.7% of the time this season, and neither was really a factor Thursday – he threw just three of them total. It's perfectly reasonable to be skeptical, but if this is real, Greene suddenly looks like the high-end Fantasy pitcher we've been hoping he would become. For what it's worth, I buy it. | | Jack Flaherty, Tigers vs. CLE: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – It wasn't as dominant as you'd like to see, but given the matchup, it's hard to be too concerned. Flaherty came back from his back issue and generated 11 whiffs on 83 pitches, with his velocity right at where it's been for the season as a whole. If Flaherty is past the back injury, he could be in line for a big second half after his breakout was derailed over the past month or so. If you're skeptical, well, this isn't a bad time to try to get some sell-high offers out there. I'm | | Tanner Houck , Red Sox vs. OAK: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – It wasn't the sharpest Houck has been during his breakout first half, but this was a nice way to head into the break. After walking four and striking out just one in his previous start, Houck was still a bit shaky with the control here, which perhaps isn't terribly surprising as he leaned more heavily on the slider and splitter – he threw his sinker just 22% of the time. All three pitches have been terrific for Houck, I do wonder if there might not be a point of diminishing returns with fading the sinker – would more walks be the price to pay? His pitch mix has been excellent this season, so I don't know if any big adjustments are necessary. Now it's more about sustaining this success as he has already reached a career-high in innings in the majors. | | Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays @SF: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – Gausman finding ways to put together a decent outing with his splitter doing little to help is promising – he had just three whiffs with the pitch today – I suppose, but it doesn't do much to make me believe the old version of Gausman is coming back. I still think he can be a useful Fantasy pitcher, with occasional moments where he looks like his old self. But unless that pitch gets back to dominating for Gausman, I'm going to keep viewing him as more like an SP4 for Fantasy, someone you can absolutely sit against the wrong matchups. That's not something we've said about Gausman in a long time before this season. | | Shane Baz, Rays vs. NYY: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – I had Baz on my second-half breakouts list, so I do have to note here that he doesn't quite have the look of an ace yet. The fastball generated six whiffs in this one but also allowed six balls in play with an average exit velocity of 100.2 mph, which obviously isn't tenable, and he didn't have a ton else going right to fall back on, with the slider only generating two whiffs. Baz has seemingly been searching for his curveball since his minor-league rehab stint, and it isn't there yet, with just one whiff on eight pitches Thursday. I still have high hopes for Baz, and his upside makes him a must-roster player even if he isn't quite there yet. But we'd like to see more from him coming out of the break, certainly. | | Mackenzie Gore, Nationals @NYM: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – I'm gonna be honest, Gore's regression over the past month and a half has been one of the more disappointing trends of the entire season. His stuff still looks awesome, but the command just isn't what it was early on in the season, and the new sweeper Gore has introduced over his past few starts hasn't really changed the calculus. I don't want to drop Gore, but with a 5.63 ERA over his final 40 innings entering the break, I can't tell you not to, either. | | David Peterson, Mets vs. WAS: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – For the most part, I think this was just a decent pitcher taking advantage of a good matchup, and Peterson's dropoff in strikeout rate this season especially makes it tough to really see him emerging as much more than a streamer. But he's been effective enough lately, and he has a pretty good supporting cast around him, and can be useful against the right matchups like this one. | | Jordan Hicks, Giants vs. TOR: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – I do think Hicks is a pretty easy drop at this point, even in H2H points leagues. He hasn't won a game since May 19, and he hasn't had a quality start since April 27, so even that RP eligibility in points leagues isn't mattering much right now. He just doesn't miss bats consistently enough for how iffy his command is, and now he's getting hit hard, consistently, with a 91.2 mph average exit velocity on 19 batted balls Thursday. Hicks has already thrown more innings than any season since 2017, too, so I don't think the second half is really going to provide better results. | | Josh Kochanowicz, Angels vs. SEA: 3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 1 K – Kochanowicz got the call from Double-A and landed in a pretty soft matchup against the whiff-happy Mariners, so the fact that he struggled this badly is a pretty bad sign. Of course, given Kochanowicz's minor-league track record, I'm not sure we should have expected much different – he has a 5.44 ERA in 326 innings in his career. Even in AL-only leagues, he can be safely ignored even if he sticks around for the second half. | | Jeff Hoffman, RP, Phillies – I wrote Hoffman up as a waiver-wire target in yesterday's newsletter, but I did note that, "I don't expect Hoffman to get just all of the saves for the Phillies the rest of the way." And, after Jose Alvarado worked the eighth to set Hoffman up Wednesday night, it was Hoffman who faced the heart of the Dodgers lineup in the eighth with a three-run lead. Alvarado worked the ninth in a non-save situation after the Phillies tacked on an insurance run, so I think it's safe to say this is still clearly a committee. Both Hoffman and Alvarado deserve to be rostered, but don't expect Hoffman to just run away with all of the save opportunities here. | | | | | | | | Golazo Matchday | | PGA Tour | Catch exciting coverage leading up to a historic European final this Sunday with Golazo Matchday at 1 PM ET, then more international final coverage with Scoreline at 5 PM ET on The Golazo Network, our free, 24/7 channel dedicated exclusively to global soccer coverage.
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