If Tuesday was the last start of Spencer Schwellenbach's season, he gave us yet another reason to be extremely excited about what the future holds. 

In the first of what are effectively six win-or-go-home games for the Braves, Schwellenbach limited the Mets to just one run over seven innings of work, allowing just three hits and a walk in the 5-1 win. Schwellenbach may still make one more start this weekend in the season finale in what could be another must-win game for the Braves in Game 162, and at this point, there might not be another pitcher they'd rather have on the mound for it.

It's been an almost unbelievable breakout season for Schwellenbach, who has gone from not even being a top-100 prospect before the season to being someone I might be ranking as a top-30 starting pitcher for 2025. How did he get here, and was there something the prospect hounds missed with Schwellenbach? 

To answer the second question first, I really don't think this one should count as a miss. In fact, Schwellenbach arguably counts as a win for the prospect folks, who had to do an awful lot of projecting just to get him into the top five of the Braves system. He was very good in 2023, to be clear, but was also a converted collegiate reliever who threw just 65 innings that season, his first back from Tommy John surgery. A 2.49 ERA across 65 innings as a 23-year-old in A-ball isn't nothing, but it didn't necessarily suggest an imminent, impact major-leaguer lurked in the profile – especially when he struck out just 55 batters.

But Schwellenbach is a tremendous developmental success story for the Braves organization, in much the same way Spencer Strider was before him. And, while I don't think Schwellenbach necessarily has that kind of upside, I do think the ceiling is sky-high here. 

How high? Well, let's start with some superlatives. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched this season, his 4.9% walk rate entering Tuesday's start was the 13th-best mark in baseball, while his 26.3% strikeout rate was good for 27th; only Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan, and Tarik Skubal were better in both regards. So, he gets a lot of strikeouts and doesn't walk many batters; good start! And his 13.8% swinging strike rate was also the 12th-best in baseball, a sign that there might be even more strikeout upside than his already quite good overall mark. 

Add in average results on balls in play, and you have a 3.45 xERA that is actually slightly better than his 3.61 ERA entering Tuesday's start – unfortunately, xERA doesn't update until the day after, so we don't know how much it improved with this outing. But, considering Schwellenbach only allowed three batted balls with an expected batting average over .500 Tuesday, it seems safe to assume that would have dipped even lower, too. That 3.45 xERA was good for 24th in the majors, just between Michael King and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which is pretty good company to keep. 

And the thing is, Schwellenbach might even have some room to grow. He has uncommonly good command of a full six-pitch arsenal for someone with as little experience as he has, and he might not even be maximizing that arsenal yet. His curveball and splitter have both been borderline elite pitches, sporting whiff rates of 39.7% and 46.9%, and it's not unreasonable to think he could see a spike in his (already good!) strikeout rate by leaning on those two pitches even more after throwing both less than 15% of the time this season.

Of course, that lack of experience is the other edge to this sword. Schwellenbach threw just 31.2 innings in his lone healthy season in college, and then tossed just 65 in 2023. That means that his 160.2 innings this season are by far the most he has ever thrown in a season, and that number will only climb if he makes another start this season – he could throw 100 more innings than last season by the time we're done, especially if the Braves make the playoffs.

There's no simple answer for how many innings a pitcher should increase from one season to the next – the so-called "Verducci Effect" has been, if not discredited, certainly overstated – but it stands to reason that a 100-plus inning jump from a young pitcher is a red flag, especially when that pitcher has never come close to that level before. Now, the fact that Schwellenbach has more or less continued to pitch at a high level this deep into the season does offer some evidence that the workload isn't catching up to him. But is it a reason to downgrade Schwellenbach in 2025 drafts? I think, combined with his history of injuries and overall lack of track record, that's probably justifiable. 

But here's the thing: If you were just taking what Schwellenbach has done this season at face value and the upward trajectory he seems to be on, you could make a pretty compelling case that he deserves to be drafted as a top-20 starting pitcher for 2025. He had been a top-28 SP since his debut before Tuesday's gem, after all, and that was with a 5.68 ERA in his first six starts; he's been top-15 since July 1. 

So, what's a good spot to rank Schwellenbach for 2025, taking into account both the obvious upside and the risk inherent in his profile? I haven't gotten through my SP rankings, but I plan on having them finalized by next week, and I think Schwellenbach will come in around the top 30. Maybe 24th. Maybe 34th. It's a distinction without a difference in that range, ultimately, and I might just opt to be more aggressive so I can plant a flag. 

Because I do think there are some outcomes in 2025 where Schwellenbach outperforms the likes of George Kirby and Logan Gilbert and pitches his way into the top 12 backed by what should be a resurgent Braves lineup. In fact, I think the chances of that happening are relatively strong enough that even a top-24 ranking might not feel aggressive enough. Especially since, while he certainly has more risk than your typical pitcher ranked that high, the baseline level of risk is always so high that there's only so much you can actually do about guarding against injury risk. 

I'll let you know where he ends up when I release my first way-too-early rankings next week, but suffice it to say I want Schwellenbach on my rosters for 2025. 

Francisco Lindor remained out of the lineup Tuesday due to that lingering back injury. He's now missed eight straight. Luisangel Acuña started in his place and had another solid game, with a 106.2 mph single and a lineout that had a .950 xBA. 

Yordan Alvarez was out again Tuesday due to that right knee sprain. Alvarez hopes to get at-bats this weekend against the Guardians, but it doesn't sound like a guarantee that he'll start more than a game or two the rest of the way. 

Austin Riley will not return this season. He underwent a CT scan Monday, which showed that his hand fracture is healing slower than expected. From June 1 through his injury in mid-August, Riley hit .275/.339/.531 with a 38-homer pace and should be a top-five third baseman for 2025 despite a down season overall. 

Josh Jung was officially placed on the IL with right wrist tendinitis. Jung got hurt four games into the season and never seemed right after a pretty tough recovery from wrist surgery, so hopefully, he can enter next season healthy. 

Max Muncy was back in the lineup after missing Sunday with side soreness.

Reynaldo Lopez threw a bullpen Tuesday and could potentially return before the end of the regular season. He's on the IL with right shoulder inflammation.

Gabriel Moreno returned to the lineup after missing Monday with left adductor tightness.

Seiya Suzuki was removed due to a sprained right ankle. 

Michael Busch left Tuesday's game after getting hit by a pitch on his right arm.

Matt Wallner was removed due to left oblique tightness.

Gavin Stone was transferred to the 60-day IL and will not return this season. He's out with right shoulder inflammation.

Ryan Mountcastle was reinstated from the IL. Eloy Jimenez accepted his option to Triple-A. Jimenez seems likely to have his option for 2025 turned down and will likely take a one-year, prove-it deal this offseason to try to rebuild his value. 

The Dodgers promoted one of their pitching prospects, Edgardo Henriquez. He's the No. 15 prospect in the organization on the  MLB pipeline and will pitch out of the bullpen, where he has largely worked this season in the minors. 

The Orioles officially released Craig Kimbrel on Tuesday.

Esteury Ruiz underwent right knee arthroscopic surgery Tuesday. He only got 29 games in this season.

Red Sox prospect Kristian Campbell was named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year. The 22-year-old hit .330 with 20 homers, 24 steals, and a .997 OPS across three levels and could be ready for the majors early in 2025. 

Tarik Skubal, Tigers vs. TB: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – It's been clear for a pretty long time that Skubal will be both the AL Cy Young winner and the No. 1 pitcher selected in 2025 across all Fantasy formats. Depending on what happens in Chris Sale 's next start – and potentially one final one for Skubal Sunday if the Tigers haven't locked up a playoff spot – he could end up leading the majors in wins, ERA, and strikeouts, and he has an outside chance to pass Logan Gilbert for the WHIP with another dominant start. That's a pretty bonkers season. 

Cole Ragans, Royals @WAS: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Ragans' walk rate ended up ballooning a bit in the second half, from 7.9% to 9.9%, but it didn't really impact his effectiveness much. Given his big jump in innings from 2023 to 2024, that's a minor red flag, especially since it has come with some velocity drops – his average fastball velocity in Tuesday's start was 93.6 mph, his lowest of the season. But I'm just not sure this should really scare you off drafting him in 2025. It might be an excuse to bump him out of the top 12 if you're really scared, but I think it's going to be awfully hard to find 12 starting pitchers who don't have red flags and who have comparable upside to Ragans. 

Framber Valdez, Astros vs. SEA: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – Valdez is one pitcher who definitely has fewer red flags than Ragans, but I don't think I'll end up ranking him higher because he's not quite there in upside. There was a stretch from July 10 to the end of August where he was showing that kind of upside, as he prioritized his curveball and sported a 30% strikeout rate over a two-month stretch, but that kind of petered out with 23 strikeouts in 26 innings in September. He's remained a very good pitcher in that stretch, of course, because Valdez is a very good pitcher. But with the strikeout upside proving unsustainable, I think the prudent move is to continue ranking Valdez as an excellent No. 2 SP for Fantasy and not an ace. 

Logan Webb, Giants @ARI: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – I wasn't originally planning to write about Webb today, and then I noticed something: A new pitch! Okay, well, not entirely new, as Webb had thrown about 40 cutters all season prior to his past two starts when he threw about 40 of them across those two starts. In a small sample, it doesn't look like a huge game changer for Webb, as he generated a merely decent three whiffs on 12 pitches in this one. But it has been a good source of weak contact so far and could give him another pitch he can rely on when his changeup isn't working, which has been the case just a bit more often than you'd like this season. Webb's mid-3.00s ERA seems pretty representative of what to expect from him, and that makes him a pretty solid SP3 in an ideal world for 2025. 

Justin Steele, Cubs @PHI: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – Steele ended up making two starts after coming back from elbow inflammation, and he allowed just two runs over 6.2 innings while striking out four and walking three, which is less than ideal. But given the circumstances, including limited opportunities for rehabbing, I think it's hard to hold it too much against him. Steele ends his season with very similar numbers to 2023, with a 3.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and just more than a strikeout per inning. There will likely be those who are still skeptical of Steele, but at this point, I think he's just a rock-solid SP3 for Fantasy, especially if this elbow issue doesn't crop up again this offseason. 

Tanner Bibee , Guardians vs. CIN: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – Bibee hasn't quite had the breakout season many hoped for, but he's been pretty solid, with some really high points. That includes a September where he has a 2.64 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 30.2 innings across five starts. It still feels like he should be a better strikeout pitcher than he is, and the regression of his changeup and curveball as swing-and-miss pitches certainly hasn't helped. Bibee is one of the more extreme flyball pitchers in baseball, so he probably does need to take a step forward as a strikeout pitcher in order to make a leap to ace-level production, but even if he doesn't, he's a solid SP3 with 200-strikeout potential for 2025. 

Bailey Ober, Twins vs. MIA: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – He just can't quite avoid these blow-up starts, can he? In many ways, Ober looks like an ace – he's in the top 10 in the majors in K-BB%, and has a per-start ceiling as high as anyone, as he showed with his 12-strikeout outing literally one start ago. But he just has so many of these baffling outings like Tuesday, where he gave up all four earned runs in the first inning against the Marlins before settling in. It might just be a fact of life with a pitcher who gives up as many balls in the air as Ober does, except for one thing: His .352 expected wOBA on contact is actually quite a bit better than the MLB average of .369, indicating that it shouldn't be as big of an issue as it is. If you want to buy Ober, you'll point to the high points and the 3.18 xERA, but I think he belongs more in the SP30 range in drafts in 2025. 

Bowden Francis, Blue Jays vs. BOS: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Francis' midseason turnaround was initially fueled by the emergence of a splitter he was consistently throwing around 30% of the time, but he has thrown it less than 20% of the time in three straight starts now, including just 11% of the time Tuesday. And his success hasn't slowed down at all, as he has allowed just three runs on nine hits in 19 innings over his past three starts. So now I really don't know what to make of him, especially since his velocity has also been down during that stretch, and he has just 11 strikeouts. I think he's probably just on a hot streak, similar to the one Ranger Suarez was on earlier in the season. But he's been so good in the second half – 1.53 ERA, 0.53 WHIP over his past nine starts – that I think we at least have to draft him next season just in case there's something real here. But I don't think he needs to be a top-150 pick or anything. 

Jack Kochanowicz, Angels @CHW: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – Look, if you want to start Kochanowicz against the Rangers this weekend, go for it. It's not a bad matchup, and he does have a 2.63 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over his past eight starts. But you're not going to get me to sign off on it. He has 19 strikeouts in 51.1 innings of work in that stretch, and he has a 5.53 xERA for the season. It just isn't a sustainable way to succeed in the majors in 2025, and I simply won't recommend him.