The global impact of UK supreme court’s ruling on Rwanda deportation plan

Good morning. Five supreme court judges are this week deciding whether the UK government plan to deport tens of thousands of asylum seekers to Rwanda should go ahead.

The decision of the UK’s highest court will be life-changing for more than 24,000 asylum seekers issued with letters warning them that they are being considered for forcible removal. It will also either make home secretary Suella Braverman’s “dream” come true or poleaxe a key part of Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats”.

Whichever way the ruling goes, it will cause a fundamental shift in how asylum seekers are treated, not just in the UK but in dozens of countries around the world, who are watching with interest. If the UK can shift part of its migration crisis 6,000 miles away, why can’t they?

After the headlines, we will get you up to speed on what’s happened so far, and what could happen next, with Guardian contributor and migration expert Daniel Trilling, who has written a long read about the plan.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘If the government loses, it’s hard to see how the Rwanda plan can go ahead’

To understand how we got here, Daniel says, we need to rewind a couple of prime ministers back to 2020. “The number of small boat crossings was starting to rise fast, and Boris Johnson was under a lot of pressure from the right of the Conservative party to do something about it. They were desperately casting around to find a new set of policies to act as deterrents for people considering crossing in the future.”

From the start, a key idea for the UK was to move asylum seekers somewhere else. Since 2012 Australia had been sending those attempting to reach its shores in small boats to offshore detention centres on Manus Island and Nauru, in a policy that has been described as cruel, costly and ineffective.

Regardless, the UK hoped to copy Australia, but also go further. While the Australian asylum seekers were sent offshore only for processing, the UK plan is that they will be considered for asylum in the “safe third country” according to its laws – not the UK’s.

“It took some months for the UK to find a partner country that thought this was a good idea,” says Daniel. “In November 2020 the foreign office produced a shortlist of 30 countries, but many of those on the list immediately ruled themselves out saying they would never do such a thing.”

The criteria was then loosened, and Rwanda made a longlist of 47 countries. However, it was subsequently removed after the British high commission in Kigali said it would not recommend pursuing Rwanda as an option.

By now it was 2021 and Johnson and the cabinet were becoming impatient. Dominic Raab, who was then-foreign secretary, wrote to his civil servants saying the “exam question” was not whether a country’s current human rights standards were fit for refugees, but whether they could be in future, “with financial support” from the UK.

The ‘cash for refugees’ deal

On 14 April 2022, the UK and Rwanda announced a “migration and economic development partnership” that would see “tens of thousands of people” resettled in Rwanda. In return, the UK agreed to give Rwanda £120m and £20,000-£30,000 per migrant to cover the cost of relocation and temporary accommodation.

Johnson told the public to expect deportation flights to take off immediately, and said the threat of being flown to Rwanda would deter a fresh wave of migrants from attempting to cross the channel. “We believe it will become a new international standard in addressing the challenges of global migration and people smuggling,” he said.

No flights have taken off – and they may never do so

It’s now 18 months later, and no UK asylum seekers have been sent to Rwanda. The £120m of taxpayers money has been sent, though.

The first flight was due to depart from Boscombe Down, a small military airfield in Wiltshire, at 10:30pm on 14 June 2022. Just hours before takeoff the European court of human rights intervened saying one of the seven passengers booked on to the flight faced “irreversible harm” if he were moved. The flight was cancelled.

What is article 3 of the European convention on human rights?

The legal battle over the Rwanda asylum plan is complicated, but Daniel says it effectively boils down to whether removing someone to Rwanda could breach article 3 of the European convention on human rights, which prohibits torture and inhumane or degrading treatment.

The UN’s refugee agency (UNHCR) says Rwanda’s asylum system is under-resourced and discriminatory and there is a risk that some asylum seekers could wrongly be sent back to their country of origin – referred to as refoulement - where they could face serious harm.

Not one, but three court cases

Last December, the high court found the Rwanda policy lawful but in June this year the court of appeal found it to be unlawful by a majority of two to one.

Now the Home Office is appealing against that ruling to the supreme court, arguing that the court of appeal was wrong to conclude that removal to Rwanda breached article 3.

Sir James Eadie KC, for the home secretary, told the supreme court on Monday that there was “every reason to conclude” that Rwanda would want the arrangements to work and asylum seekers would be treated properly. “There is no challenge at all to the good faith or the intent of Rwanda to comply with the commitments that they have given to the United Kingdom.”

What happens next?

A supreme court decision could take months, although this case has been expedited so a ruling could be made more quickly.

“If the government loses,” Daniel says. “It’s very hard to see how the Rwanda plan can go ahead.”

However, Robert Jenrick, the minister for immigration, has said the government could still go ahead with the plan – if the UK leaves the European convention on human rights.

Ministers are also considering exempting immigration issues from the jurisdiction of the Human Rights Act, which makes the ECHR enforceable in UK law. “If they did this it would make a mockery of universal human rights, as the whole point is that they’re universal,” Daniel says.

If the government wins, Sunak has said he wants flights to Rwanda to start as soon as possible and according to media briefings at the weekend the government aims to send an estimated 4,000 people to Rwanda before the next election. “I’m confident that once flights start going regularly to Rwanda, the boats will stop coming,” he told the Conservative party conference last week.

What happened to the people who were due to be deported?

“I’ve interviewed several people that were due to be sent to Rwanda, and they are all psychologically damaged,” Daniel says. “These are people who have fled war, who have seen their relatives killed in front of them, who have been trafficked to the UK and been beaten and tortured along the way.

“Now their trauma is being made worse, by not knowing what is going to happen to them,” he says. “They can’t think straight or move forward with their lives until they know what is going to happen.”

What else we’ve been reading

Emine Saner’s interview with Labour MP Stella Creasy is in equal measures hopeful and disheartening. Creasy unpacks the stresses of life as a politician, sexual harassment in the workplace and the growing danger that politicians face - but she’s also still incredibly hopeful: “I am not a masochist, I don’t do this job for the fun of it. You do it because you can make a difference.” Nimo

Frasier is back (if you happen to have Paramount+). Lucy Manning says the first episode is “a test of faith” as backstories are filled in and new characters (including Only Fools and Horses actor Nicholas Lyndhurst) are introduced. “But after a few episodes, the chemistry and the magic are back.” Rupert

ICYMI: another great Emine Saner interview recommendation, this one with Dolly Parton (pictured above). The pair discuss the legendary country singer’s new album, which features Paul McCartney, Elton John, Stevie Nicks and Ringo Starr, her $500m business empire and her aversion to talking politics. Nimo

“The other day, someone asked me if bats are religious. I always say they are Anglican.” Diana Spencer of the Bats in Churches scheme tells Patrick Greenfield all about the problems bats can cause for churches and how a new £5m project is making an uneasy peace between bats and belfries. Rupert

Getting secure, affordable housing has never been harder, as house prices and rents surge. James Tapper explores the idea of multigenerational households as an alternative way to deal with financial difficulties and the growing prevalence of loneliness. Nimo

Sport

Football | Gareth Southgate is hopeful that Bukayo Saka (pictured above) will be available for England’s Euro 2024 qualifier against Italy next Tuesday despite the winger missing Arsenal’s victory over Manchester City due to a hamstring injury.

LA Olympics | Cricket has won its battle to be added to the Los Angeles 2028 Olympic programme, and will be joined by flag football as well as baseball and softball. The LA organising committee is expected to go public with its choice of sports for the Games within the next 24 hours.

Formula One | The FIA has begun a review into Sunday’s Qatar Grand Prix after leading drivers condemned the intense heat in which they had to race, describing it as “dangerous” and “unacceptable”.

The front pages

What happens next in the wake of Hamas’ attack on Israel – as well as the fate of the hostages – is covered on many of the front pages on Tuesday. The Guardian is leading with “Israel declares ‘siege’ of Gaza as Hamas threatens captives”. The main picture on the front page shows smoke billowing in the aftermath of an Israeli airstrike on Gaza city.

The Financial Times says “Israel enforces complete siege of Gaza” as the Telegraph runs the headline “Israel: No choice but to seize Gaza”. The Sun also has a full page image of the Israeli air strike on Gaza city with the headline “Only the beginning”. The Mirror splits images of those injured or fleeing rocket attacks in both Israel and Gaza with the headline “Pray for the innocents”.

Other papers are focussing on the fate of the hostages taken by Hamas. The Times says “Hamas: One hostage will die for every Gaza strike”, reporting the threat given by Hamas over unannounced strikes. The Mail has a similar headline “Hamas: We’ll kill hostage for each Israeli attack” and the i reports “Hamas threat to execute hostages as Israel prepares ground invasion”.

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Growing up, Lynn Leggat’s father was always building something: tables, cupboards, kitchens, a conservatory, a games room. As a carpenter, his skills seemingly knew no bounds and Leggat learned at his side because he “thought it was important for girls to have the skills that boys have”, she says. When she was 15, her father’s company went out of business and she started pursuing various jobs in finance, hospitality and marketing.

Carpentry was always in the back of her mind, though, and for her 60th birthday, her husband, a builder, bought her a set of power tools that now makes her think of her father. “When I got the tools, I did cry,” she says. “Every time I work in my workshop area, even if I’m just moving the wood around or thinking what I’m going to do with it, I get a sense of being close to him.”

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.

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