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Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Before we get to the rest of today's Fantasy Baseball Today newsletter, I just want to take a moment to appreciate Elly De La Cruz's greatness, because he had one of those games Monday that just highlights what an absolute outlier of a player he is. 
De La Cruz had a whopping four batted balls of at least 108 mph Monday against the Marlins, something only Giancarlo Stanton and Ketel Marte have down this season. And it wasn't just loud outs, for De La Cruz, who went 4 for 5 with two homers and two doubles while adding three runs and three RBI. Just about the only thing missing from the line for De La Cruz was a stolen base, though seeing as he has 25 more than any other player in baseball this season, it's okay to take a night off there.
Remember back in late May, when De La Cruz was stuck in a terrible slump and was looking like he might succumb to the same inconsistency that made him less of a dominant Fantasy option than we hoped he would be as a rookie? Well, he's now hitting .278/.350/.557 since the start of June, with a 30-homer, 77-steal pace. What makes that even more impressive is he's cut his strikeout rate down to 27.8% in that span, a completely manageable mark for a player who does everything else as well as De La Cruz does.
There will be more slumps coming, I'm sure. De La Cruz's skill set figures to make him a relatively high-variance player even when he is the fully actualized version of himself. But we're also seeing him figure it out on the fly, in a way that makes all the debates about him early on in the season look rather foolish. He's one of the best players in Fantasy and deserves to be drafted in the top six in every categories league next season. And probably for the next five after that, too. 
And now, here's everything else you need to know about from Monday's action around MLB:.
Tuesday's waiver targets
Justin Martinez, RP, Diamondbacks (4%) – This one's a bit speculative, but what the heck, it's a pretty boring day for waiver-wire targets otherwise, so let's get into it. It sure seemed like the Diamondbacks wanted Ryan Thompson to be their Paul Sewald replacement in the ninth inning, but after needing to be bailed out Sunday in a save opportunity, he blew the save Monday, so I have to think that might be the end of that experiment. And, at least for Monday, it was Martinez's time to step in, as he got the save in the 10th inning after the Diamondbacks re-took the lead from the Guardians. Martinez has closer stuff, and if he can keep the walks manageable, there's significant upside here in the back end of the bullpen. Let's see if they give the 22-year-old a shot to take the job. 
David Festa, SP, Twins (20%) – Festa is an interesting pitcher. He's big, at 6-foot-6, and generates a lot of extension on his release, but his fastball really doesn't play up as a whiff pitch despite that. He generated just one swing-and-miss with his four-seamer Monday and has a whiff rate below 19% with it for the season. However, the changeup and slider really played up against the Cubs , generating eight and five whiffs, respectively, which was more than enough against a Cubs lineup that likes to swing-and-miss already. Festa is an interesting prospect, with a 3.84 ERA but also 104 strikeouts in 72.2 innings in Triple-A, and Monday was really the first time we've seen that kind of strikeout upside from him in the majors. He's got a tougher matchup against the Guardians this weekend, and I would be really impressed if he could do something like this against that lineup. If you're in a deeper league, he's an okay speculative add, but it'd be nice to see him pitch a little deeper into games before we buy in. 
Andrew Heaney, SP, Rangers (34%) – Heaney bounced back from a couple of poor showings with a solid outing against a tough matchup against the Astros Monday, with the lone run allowed coming off a solo homer by Alex Bregman. In fact, it was the only hit he allowed. However, it was hardly a dominant showing from Heaney, who struck out four over his six innings of work with nine swinging strikes. Heaney changed his slider back to the harder, tighter offering it was with the Dodgers during his best-ever season, and since then, he has a 3.35 ERA with about a strikeout per inning. He's not a dominant pitcher, but Heaney has his uses. 
Jeff McNeil, 2B, Mets (71%) – McNeil homered again Monday with three more hard-hit balls and he now has five homers since the All-Star break. He had just five before then, and his expected wOBA over his past 100 PA is still just .321, so I'm not really buying McNeil as much more than a hot hand option while this lasts, but for what it's worth, he did hit .289/.322/.566 in the month of July, so this isn't just a one-week thing here. 
James Paxton, SP, Red Sox (67%) – This was Paxton's first quality start since mid-June, and he did it while generating just seven swings and misses, instead relying on weak contact for solid results. He did lead with his curveball in this one, throwing it 46% of the time, which probably isn't a bad idea, given how bad his four-seamer has been; he threw that one just 20% of the time, opting to prioritize the sinker ahead of it as well. Even with that, I don't see much reason to think Paxton is much more than a deep-league streamer at this point. 
News and Notes
Freddie Freeman was activated from the emergency family leave list Monday and was back in the lineup. Fantastic news. 
Gabriel Moreno left Monday's game during the second inning with a strained groin. At this point, it's not clear if he is going to require an IL stint, but it wouldn't be a surprise – as R.J. Anderson notes via the Baseball Prospectus Recovery Dashboard tool, groin strains tend to lead to around 28 days of missed action, on average. 
Mason Miller (finger) threw 15 pitches in a live batting practice session Monday and is expected to be activated at some point during the team's current series
Wyatt Langford returned to the Rangers lineup Monday after missing a few games with back tightness. 
Brooks Lee (shoulder) missed his second game in a row Monday. He was able to do some work on the field before the game, so it sounds like it may not be too serious, but it's a good excuse to bench the struggling rookie. 
Ranger Suarez (back) threw a successful bullpen session Monday. He's eligible to come off the IL, but it sounds like it'll be next week at the earliest. 
Jesus Luzardo (back) is at least six weeks away from throwing, which means he is effectively finished for the season. He'll be an interesting buy-low for next season, though I imagine he'll pitching somewhere besides Miami if he makes it through the offseason healthy. 
Jacob Wilson (hamstring) took batting practice Monday. He remains without a concrete timetable but is making progress. 
Miguel Rojas (forearm) is ready to return from the Il, and that could come in the coming days. 
Seiya Suzuki was out of the lineup Monday with neck stiffness, though he is expected back in the lineup Tuesday. 
Ian Happ returned to the lineup after missing Sunday's game with shoulder soreness.
Byron Buxton did get the day off Monday after colliding with the outfield wall Sunday, though the injury is not expected to be a long-term issue despite that. 
Reynaldo Lopez (forearm) was placed on the 15-day IL, retroactive to Aug. 2. They had hoped he would avoid the IL, and was initially listed as day-to-day, but that always felt like wishful thinking. I think you can probably drop Lopez in shallower leagues if you need the roster space, given the expected regression he likely had coming. 
Tristan Beck, recovering from surgery for an aneurysm in his right arm in the spring, is expected to begin a rehab assignment Thursday. It's not clear what role he is likely to return to, but I would bet on it being a bullpen role, given how little time there is to work up to a full workload before the minor-league season ends. 
Bryce Elder was recalled and will return to the rotation Tuesday against the Brewers. He was solid in his most recent start (also against Milwaukee), but has a 5.67 ERA on the season and that doesn't feel like a fluke. 
Jackson Holliday reworked his batting stance while down at Triple-A Norfolk and he credits that with his early success in Round 2 of his time in the majors. 
White Sox pitching prospect Ky Bush was promoted to start Monday against the Athletics . He gave up three earned runs in four innings of work, with five walks and three strikeouts, which isn't terribly surprising for a guy with a 6.16 ERA and 10 walks to 16 strikeouts in 19 innings at Triple-A this season. I'm not saying Bush can't be a useful Fantasy option eventually, but I don't see any real reason to give him a second look right now. 
Brusdar Graterol was activated from the IL Monday after missing four months with shoulder inflammation. Blake Treinen will go on the 15-day IL with left hip discomfort. Graterol will probably not figure into the Dodgers' convoluted ninth-inning plans at first, at least. 
Tyler O'Neill (illness) missed his third straight game Monday, but he was available off the bench, so the hope here is he'll be back tomorrow. 
The Dodgers DFA'd Cavan Biggio, who hit just .192/.306/.329 in 88 PA for them. 
Monday's standouts 
Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers vs. PHI: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Glasnow's ERA remains a little inflated, as he's up to 3.54 for the season and 3.96 since May 1 – but with consistently elite strikeout marks and a 2.60 xERA to go along with it. Glasnow has had some issues with inflated ERAs in the past, but at some point, that's just nitpicking, right? He's a top-five pitcher in Fantasy when healthy. 
Aaron Nola, Phillies @LAD: 6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – Nola ran into trouble in the fourth, when he allowed all four of his runs, but he was pretty excellent otherwise. But that's kind of the problem, right? Nola is usually good, but he tends to allow a few too many runs at the wrong time, and that's been happening a lot more lately; he had a 2.77 ERA on June 5, but has a 4.66 mark since then. But that's kind of misleading because it's only three starts with more than three ER allowed. I think he's mostly fine, and the poor showings just don't bother me very much, given Nola's overall workload and typical excellence. 
Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks @CLE: 7 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I'm inclined to write this off as a result of a tough matchup, with Gallen's pitch usage and velocity mostly looking like it's supposed to. He hasn't been sharp since coming back from that hamstring injury in late June, with a 4.60 ERA in his past eight starts, with just 36 strikeouts in 43 innings of work. I'm still viewing Gallen as a must-start pitcher despite his struggles, but I'd sure love to see a couple of really good starts in a row at some point; he has just three quality starts since coming off the IL. 
Logan Webb, Giants @WAS: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Meh. It wasn't a bad start, but we certainly hope for better against a matchup like this from a pitcher of Webb's caliber. Despite my tepid response, I will point out that Webb generated eight whiffs with his changeup Monday, building on last start's nine whiffs with the pitch. He hasn't been getting as many swinging strikes with that pitch this season, which probably helps explain much of why he's taken a step backwards overall. I expect him to remain a must-start pitcher the rest of the way, and rediscovering that changeup would go a long way to keeping me optimistic, despite the just-okay results here. 
Hunter Brown, Astros vs. TEX: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – It wasn't exactly the most overwhelmingly dominant start of Brown's season, but it's hard to argue too much with the results. Brown went more sinker-heavy in this one, which could help explain the lack of strikeouts. He has plenty of swing-and-miss pitches even if he prioritizes the sinker, and he has managed a 2.64 ERA since the start of May with 106 strikeouts in 99 innings of work. This is kind of the Mitch Keller blueprint, with a bit of a kitchen-sink approach that can change from one start to the next, but I do think Brown's emergence as a must-start pitcher is more or less real. Let's just hope he can avoid Keller's frustrating inconsistency, something we have seen signs of over the past month or so. 
Sean Manaea , Mets @STL: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – That's two double-digit strikeout starts in a row, making him just the 10th pitcher with consecutive 10-strikeout showings this season; he is also one of just 16 pitchers in the majors this season with three games of double-digit strikeouts, too. Manaea has always had flashes of this kind of strikeout upside, but it only came with 13 swinging strikes Monday, so I'm still having trouble buying it, personally. I think he's a fine streamer against good matchups, but not someone who needs to be rostered in all formats if he doesn't have great matchups. 
Brady Singer, Royals vs. BOS: 5.2 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Was this the regression monster coming to swallow Singer up? He's been one of the more obvious overperformers all season, entering play Monday with a 2.88 ERA compared to a 4.45 xERA, which is why I've never really bought into him despite the success. Singer hasn't shown much ability to limit hard contact, and it came back to bite him in a big way in this one, as the Red Sox generated 10 hard-hit balls against him. I think worse days are yet to come for Singer, who is someone I would only want to use against obviously good matchups moving forward. 
JP Sears, Athletics vs. CHW: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – For the most part, this is just because he had the good fortune to face the White Sox, a historically bad offense. But it's worth noting that Sears did have a 3.07 ERA in July with 30 strikeouts to four walks, and he's been prioritizing his four-seam fastball more lately, which is actually his best swing-and-miss pitch. I think Sears is probably just a streamer in most leagues, but he can take advantage of good matchups, at least. 
Nick Martinez, Reds @MIA: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – Martinez took advantage of a beatable matchup, but I don't see much to suggest he's more than a streamer against good matchups. The good news is that he's set to face the Brewers this weekend if he remains in the rotation, so he could be useful once again. 
Logan Allen, Guardians vs. ARI: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – Allen wasn't bad in his return from Triple-A, but he didn't give us anything to get excited about, either, with just five whiffs to go along with the two strikeouts. Even if he gets another opportunity here, I just don't see much reason to buy into him outside of AL-only leagues. 
Griffin Jax, RP, Twins – Saves have been kind of tough to come by lately for the Twins, but it was interesting to see them go with Jax to close out the game against the Cubs while Jhoan Duran worked the eighth inning. I don't think that's necessarily a sign that Jax is the closer right now – it was his first save since June, after all – but it's noteworthy since Duran hasn't had a save opportunity since July 13 himself. He hasn't been quite as sharp as expected this season and probably doesn't need to be considered one of the elite closers in baseball anymore, though I also wouldn't necessarily be rushing out to add Jax after this one, either. 
Will Smith, C, Dodgers – Went 0 for 4 Monday, and is just 5 for 44 since the ASB with a 41% strikeout rate. I think Smith will probably pull out of it, but it's been an incredibly tough stretch for the veteran, and it's always reasonable to wonder about catchers wearing down in the dog days of summer. 
Matt Chapman, 3B, Giants – Chapman homered for the third game in a row Monday and for the fifth time overall since the All-Star break, though his success has gone on a bit longer than that; he has an OPS north of .800 since the start of June, and as Eno Sarris noted on Twitter that has coincided with an increase in his pull-rate on batted balls . Chapman is having a quietly very solid bounce-back season, fueled by better batting than we've seen from him since 2020, but also a career-high 12 steals – he had just 11 in his career entering this season, so it's fair to say that came out of nowhere. 
Masataka Yoshida, OF, Red Sox – Yoshida ended a four-game hitless streak in emphatic fashion Monday, going 4 for 5 with two doubles and two runs scored against the Royals. He had been red-hot before this recent slump, hitting .333/.411/.487 in the month of July, and remains useful when he's locked in like this, even if there isn't a ton of HR or SB upside here. 
 
 
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