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HEALTH, WEALTH, AND HAPPINESS

April 5, 2022

"Cause I'm hopeful, yes, I am

Hopeful for today

Take this music and use it

Let it take you away

And be hopeful"

- Electro Deluxe, Hopeful

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Our official playlist: High-energy music to keep you motivated to invest for the long term, staying focused and hopeful.


Our Blockchain for Everyone playlist is now available for free on Spotify. Click here to listen.

Whale Reads



Whale Reads

Worthy news for aspiring whales


Tech For Peace (TechForPeace.io): A new global peace initiative using blockchain technology to peacefully resolve the Ukraine-Russia war. It's being set up as a Switzerland-based DAO, which is used as a foundation for donations and contributor engagement.


Money raised will go to humanitarian organizations such as UNICEF in Ukraine, as well as funding independent journalists in Russia.


Investor takeaway: As we wrote on Friday, sending crypto to fund war just leads to more war. We applaud initiatives to use crypto to fund peace. You can contribute here.

Your Money is Growing



Your Money is Growing

Truth, in numbers


Here are numbers tweeted by Alex Bornyakov, Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation, on how the country has spent donated crypto to fund more war:

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Courtesy Alex Bornyakov



Investor takeaway: Instead of funding more war, let's give peace a chance.

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The Big Picture

with Evamarie Augustine


Hi Everyone,


Depending on what headline you read, we’re either heading for a recession…or we’re not.

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So what is going on? The yield on the 2-year Treasury note has been surpassing that of the 10-year bond—something frequently described as an inverted yield curve.


As investors tie up their money for a greater period of time with longer-dated bonds, they usually receive a more significant yield than those produced by bonds with shorter maturities. However, the relationship can sometimes invert—and many view this as a harbinger of a recession.


Over the past week, the yield curve has inverted at several points, however, at the time of this writing, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note was 2.50%, while the 10-year bond was yielding 2.56%.


Inversion of the 2-year and 10-year bonds has predicted past recessions—but it has not specified when these downturns would occur. 


During the last six economic cycles, the average time between the yield curve's inversion and the start of a recession was roughly 18.5 months, Michael Reynolds and Jason Pride, who work for investment manager Glenmede, wrote in a recent note. 


But while the headlines talk about the 2-year note, one research piece produced the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis took a different approach, comparing the 1-year note to the 10-year bond. The authors of this article emphasized the importance of harnessing real interest rates, meaning rates that are adjusted for inflation. 


The real interest rate measures how quickly consumption is expected to increase over a given time frame, according to standard asset-pricing theory. Using this methodology, yield signals expected growth over the bond's maturity.


A positive difference between the 10-year and 1-year yield indicates an expected increase in the rate of expansion, while a negative difference points to growth slowing down.


As of this writing, the difference between the 10-year Treasury at 2.56% and the 12-month Treasury at 1.72% is 0.84%.


So is this time really different? Global economies are facing several challenges—record-high inflation, persistent supply chain issues, and labor shortages—as well as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 


An inverted yield curve is a reliable indicator of an impending recession—and it's also subject to a wide range of interpretations, including the artificial depression of the 10-year yield due to the massive amount of pandemic stimulus.


Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that he prefers to “look at the shorter part of the yield curve.”


Investors should keep yield curves in mind—and also recognize that as the economy shifts from mid-cycle to late-cycle, the period between an inversion and a recession could provide opportunities for investors. 

Meanwhile, across the pond


In the U.K., Her Majesty's Treasury announced plans to regulate stablecoins so they can be used as payment.


Further, the Treasury outlined plans to foster innovation in the crypto/blockchain space, including the creation of an engagement group designed to collaborate with industry participants. 


"It’s my ambition to make the UK a global hub for cryptoasset technology, and the measures we’ve outlined today will help to ensure firms can invest, innovate and scale up in this country," stated Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak. 


And in the U.S., Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gensler spoke yesterday at his alma mater, the University of Pennsylvania, emphasizing the need for investor and market protection across platforms, tokens and stablecoins.


Let's hope U.S. government officials are also thinking about competitiveness and innovation as they look to regulate the industry.


I appreciate all your likes, follows and comments! As always, thank you for reading. 


Make it a great day! 

Evamarie Augustine

Market Analyst

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The U.K. is finally providing regulatory clarity. God save the Queen!

Bitcoin Market Journal is a daily newsletter that makes you a better crypto investor. It is created by Evamarie Augustine, Charles Bovaird, Mati Greenspan, John Hargrave, and Alexandre Lores.


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