One week into a brutal new conflict, what happens next for Israel and Palestine?

Life will never be the same for the people of Israel or Palestine following Hamas militants’ invasion of Israel last Saturday.

Some 1,300 Israelis and people of other nationalities were killed in what has been described as “by far the worst day in Israeli history”, which has been likened to “September 11 and Pearl Harbor wrapped into one”. An “unprecedented” 100-150 people are also being held hostage in Gaza.

The latest death count in Gaza – which has been bombed relentlessly ever since and is under siege – as of now is reported to stand at more than 1,500, including 500 children.

As the war enters its seventh day, what happens next is unclear. But one thing is certain: it is going to get much worse for both sides before there’s any hope of resolution.

For today’s newsletter, we’re taking the opportunity to take stock of what has happened so far, why, and what might happen next, alongside Guardian foreign correspondent Peter Beaumont, who has covered the region for the past 23 years. That’s after the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘In my 23 years of covering this conflict, I have never seen such levels of absolute fear for the future’

The attack on Kfar Aza, a kibbutz about a mile from the Gaza border, at daybreak on Saturday was so rapid and unexpected that when journalists visited days after the attack they found “full cups of coffee and a jug of milk still sat on the table in one kitchen”. The kitchen floor was “smeared with blood”.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) still doesn’t know exactly how many people were killed in this kibbutz, one of several that were targeted alongside the Supernova dance music festival. “We don’t know yet,” Maj Gen Itai Veruv said. “Mothers, fathers, babies, young families killed in their beds, in the protection room, in the dining room, in their garden. It’s not a war, it’s not a battlefield. It’s a massacre.”

Peter says it was an attack that the Israeli government and military has long-feared and warned both locals and international community about, “but failed to anticipate and failed to stop”.

“For a couple of years there has been concern that Hamas might charge Israel’s ‘iron wall’ fence,” Peter says. “But it doesn’t appear to have occurred to the Israeli security force that Hamas had the capability for this very sophisticated multi-domain attack.”

The 40-mile long “smart fence” is 20m high and includes an underground concrete barrier to stop tunnelling, the depth of which was not disclosed. More than 140,000 tons of iron and steel were used in its construction, according to Reuters. It also bristles with hundreds of millions of dollars worth of cameras, sensors, radars and guard towers as regularly as every 500ft in some places.

Despite all this, the fence was breached at 29 different points, according to the IDF. “The scale of the attack, which opened with a barrage of 2,500 rockets and involved attempted boat and paraglider landings to the north of Gaza, the use of drones, and breaches along the entire length of the wall, suggests the assault was designed to confuse and overwhelm,” Peter says.

A senior Israeli reserve officer told Israeli newspaper Haaretz: “We were living in an imaginary reality for years. We became over-reliant on the sophisticated underground barrier, on technology. We convinced ourselves that Hamas is deterred and frightened, and that we’ll always have intelligence warnings in time. We thought we knew how to analyse their intention and thoughts.”

What is Hamas?

The horrific attacks have focused global attention on the question of what Hamas is and what it represents. As Peter explains in this helpful piece, Hamas was founded as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood in 1987 on three pillars: religion, charity and the fight against Israel.

As the movement’s founding charter made clear, Hamas (an acronym for the Islamic Resistance Movement) was dedicated from the start to extinguishing the existence of the state of Israel. It has been named a proscribed terrorist group by the UK and the US governments.

But it also plays a wider role in civil society, incorporating teachers, surgeons, urban planners and police in its civil administration of Gaza.

How has Israel responded so far?

Since the attack, Israel has launched an unprecedented bombing campaign that has destroyed whole neighbourhoods in Gaza. At least 1,400 people have been killed, and more than 6,000 wounded, according to the Palestinian health ministry.

The Israeli government has also ordered a “complete siege” of Gaza. “No power, no food, no gas,” defence minister Yoav Gallant said. “We are fighting human animals, and we act accordingly.” It has also called up 300,000 reservists, including many people living overseas in the US, the UK and other countries.

It is likely just the beginning of what could be months of war. Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said yesterday that Hamas should be “crushed” and “spat out from the community of nations” in a speech alongside Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state.

Blinken said his message to Israel was: “You may be strong enough on your own to defend yourself, but as long as America exists, you will never, ever have to. We will always be there by your side. That’s the message that President Biden delivered to the prime minister from the moment that this crisis began.” But he also cautioned: “How Israel does this matters.”

Is an Israeli invasion of Gaza inevitable?

In a word, Peter says, yes. “I don’t see how an invasion can’t happen,” he says. “I’ve been to this movie before, I was there in 2014. Everyone can see the tank carriers going down the motorways towards the border, it is just a question of when the order is given. If they don’t invade, I don’t see how this government can survive.”

In a further sign that the invasion is coming, this morning Israel’s military told 1.1 million residents of northern Gaza to relocate farther south within 24 hours.

The cost will be appalling on both sides. “Hamas will fight on every street block all the way to the Mediterranean,” he says. What would success look like for Israel?

“Even if they win this battle, what does it mean for the war? Will Israel want to reoccupy and administrate Gaza? Will that have the support of the Israeli people to do so?”

How do Israelis and Palestinians feel?

Since Saturday morning, Peter’s phone has been abuzz with messages from friends in Israel and Gaza. “In my 23 years of covering this conflict, I have never seen such levels of absolute fear for the future,” Peter says. “In the past even when things got really bad, people would have some optimism. But now no one can imagine it ever going back to the status quo.

“For Israelis something important happened this weekend that goes beyond the shock and horror of the massacre. A kind of self-belief in the state of Israel and what it represents and what it means to be a citizen has been lost.”

For Palestinians. “People I know who are normally as cool as cucumbers are now in actual existential fear of what’s coming,” Peter says. “People are terrified.”

What else we’ve been reading

Aditya Chakrabortty explains why using class politics as a marketing strategy could become Keir Starmer’s undoing: “The next election will be another anti-Westminster ballot, in which voters will show their revulsion at an economy and a politics that are clearly broken,” Chakrabortty writes. “The beneficiary of that revulsion is likely to be Starmer. But what happens afterwards, as he tries and fails to rise to the moment, could be more frightening yet.” Nimo

Did two of the world’s leading researchers into dishonesty fake their own data? And what does this reveal about how academia rewards novelty over rigour? The New Yorker investigates. Rupert

Big Brother is back and it still has its magnetic magic, Daisy Jones writes. Good television does not need to be complex or stylish, Jones notes: it “can also be weird and mundane or just plain silly. It can be a camera zooming in on someone’s unimpressed face, or a man called Jenkin almost crying over his Crocs being returned”. Nimo

Finally, a diagnosis. I am, dear reader, a “tidsoptimist”. “A person who underestimates how long something takes, and also overestimates how much time they have at their disposal. So they will often be late.” Thank you Anita Chaudhuri for this fascinating read on lateness. Rupert

Thomas Graham’s dispatch from Santa Cruz de la Sierra is a terrifying look into escalating deforestation in Bolivia, where tree clearance has increased by 32% in the last year. Nimo

Sport

Football | Spain beat Scotland 2-0 thanks to Álvaro Morata’s header and Oihan Sancet’s goal, while Steve Clarke’s men had a Scott McTominay free kick ruled out by VAR. Scotland should still make it to Euro 2024 but qualification will have to wait for another day and another place.

Cricket | South Africa crushed Australia by 134 runs to cruise to their second victory at the World Cup, as Quinton de Kock struck his second hundred in as many matches and Aiden Markram made a half-century before the bowlers ripped through the five-time champions on Thursday.

Formula One | The former F1 boss Bernie Ecclestone has received a 17-month suspended sentence after pleading guilty to fraud, accused of failing to declare more than £400m of overseas assets to the UK government.

The front pages

The Guardian headline is “US promises arms to Israel as UN sounds Gaza warning”. It’s one of multiple angles on the Israel-Hamas war in Friday’s papers.

On the Telegraph’s front page is a large boxed headline that takes up about half of the area. It says “This is the most difficult image we’ve ever posted. As we are writing this we are shaking. We went back and forth about posting this, but we need each and every one of you to know. This happened”. The paper is referring to an image it’s reproduced on subsequent pages which it says was published by Israel and shows the corpse of a baby. In the Times, the headline is “Israel shows mutilated babies” on top of an image of Palestinian children wounded in airstrikes on Gaza. The Express says “Horrific images of murdered babies show ‘Depravity in worst way’”, quoting some of what Antony Blinken had to say.

The Mirror’s headline is “Horror in the Middle East” and “Royal Navy on way”, referring to the UK’s decision to send navy ships and spy planes to support Israel. The i takes a similar line, saying “Sunak sends in the military as UK and US urge Israeli restraint”. On the Financial Times front page it’s “Washington urges restrain on Israel as threat of regional conflict mounts”.

The Mail takes a more domestic line with “PM tells police to get a grip on anti-Israel hate” and in the Sun, “Fury at terror victims snub”, referring to what the paper says is the FA’s refusal to light up Wembley’s arch to remember the victims of the Hamas attack on Israel.

Something for the weekend

Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now

TV
The Fall of the House of Usher (Netflix)
Halloween is saved! Spookmaster Mike Flanagan’s final Netflix offering is a spooky, grisly, sumptuously gothic treat. Compelling Edgar Allan Poe adaptations have been thin on the ground since Roger Corman’s films in the 1960s. Admittedly, there was a spectacular segment in an early Treehouse of Horror Simpsons Halloween special, but with The Fall of the House of Usher, Mike Flanagan proves just as adept as Matt Groening or Corman at bringing Poe to the screen. Leila Latif

Music
Troye Sivan: Something to Give Each Other
It is a thrill to hear Troye Sivan (above) back to his best – indeed bettering it. Built on a funky house rhythm – like Spiller’s Groovejet turned up to 126bpm – and with a rowdy chorus chanted as if by a troupe of distractingly buff personal trainers, it’s all sweat and heavy breathing. Sex and romance abound on tracks that deliver both orgiastic, high-octane revelry and poetic introspection. Ben Beaumont-Thomas

Film
Mean Streets
Rereleased for its 50th anniversary, this ultraviolent urban pastoral remains thrilling, sensual, dangerous and effortlessly fluent. Scene follows scene and setpiece follows setpiece with miraculous, frictionless ease, and there is a casual brilliance in the teeming festival streetscape scenes. Scorsese’s soundtrack use of pop and rock classics supercharges every image with sensual tragic power. Extraordinary things happen out of nowhere. Peter Bradshaw

Podcast
Shaun Keaveny’s Daily Grind (Widely available from Monday)
Fans of Keaveny’s now defunct 6 Music breakfast show will have a good idea of what to expect from his new daily podcast. It’s a delightfully rambling affair, featuring him accosting members of the public for chats on a towpath, segments recorded in a pub and celebrity chats that focus on the least starry topics possible – in episode one, it’s Joe Lycett on buses. “I’m an acquired taste … give it another 38 goes,” says Keaveny. You really should. Alexi Duggins

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

The Falcon Inn is an almost 200-year-old pub in Shropshire that, up until last year, was in a state of disrepair. The building had been damaged by flooding, the ceiling had caved in and the beer cellar was full of water after a leaking pipe had gone undetected for weeks. It stood empty, abandoned by customers and the tenants alike after the owner came to believe it was no longer a viable business.

The local community decided that it was not the end of the road for the Falcon Inn, with residents rallying together to get the pub listed as an asset of community value. They then formed an unincorporated community group and took over the lease – a group of volunteers will be manning the bar until enough money comes in to hire paid staff. It’s a community effort as villagers now have the option to buy shares in the pub and all profits will be funnelled back into the local area.

It’s opening tomorrow, but there is already incredibly high demand, with planned events already lined up including a baby shower, Christmas wreath-making classes, a domino’s club night, folk music sessions and Oktoberfest.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until Monday.

Quick crossword

Cryptic crossword

Wordiply