| US data looks bleak | Is Telefonica taking the Liberty? |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for May 5th in 3:09 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. US and European manufacturing activity plumbed new depths in April
  2. Our analysts examine why Warren Buffett lost $50 billion last quarter, but not really – Read Now
  3. Major telecommunication companies Liberty Global and Telefonica are in discussions over merging their UK operations
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Alternative Factories

Alternative Factories

What’s Going On Here?

New survey data out on Monday suggested manufacturing activity in the eurozone last month shrank at the fastest pace since records began in 1997 – and for all the hot air it’s blowing, the States may not be doing much better.

What Does This Mean?

These regular surveys ask purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry how busy they’ve been each month, and they might’ve been met with a relatively optimistic response in April. Those managers, after all, seem to have spent at least some of the month working, rather than languishing in economic and social lockdown like the rest of the Western world. But Europe's survey data, for a start, still made for glum reading: manufacturing activity was at an eleven-year low in Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands, and at the lowest level ever recorded in France and Italy.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
The majority of coronavirus disruptions might only have struck in March, but the eurozone economy still shrank at an annualized rate of 14% last quarter. And with April’s manufacturing activity even weaker than March’s, the second quarter looks set to be even worse than the first. That’s reflected in estimates from investment bank Goldman Sachs, which reckons the eurozone economy will shrink by 15% this quarter compared to the second quarter of 2019 – or at an annualized rate of almost 40% (tweet this).

Zooming out: Gosh darn it.
Data out last Friday showed America’s manufacturing industry activity fell to its own eleven-year low in April (noticing a pattern?), and while things may not be as bad as in Europe, the country’s economy is still headed for an annualized 34% drop this quarter. In an effort to limit the impact on businesses and individuals, the US government is reportedly working on a new support plan – not that the president’s planned tax cut will do much to help the 20 million newly unemployed expected to appear in April’s jobs data this Friday.

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Grounded



What’s Going On Here?

Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate controlled by Warren Buffett, revealed a $50 billion first-quarter loss over the weekend, as well as the sale of its extensive stakes in US airlines. Both setbacks, however, may only be temporary…

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Big Talk

Big Talk

What’s Going On Here?

Telefonica isn’t here for “How’s your lockdown going?” chitchat: news broke over the weekend the telecoms giant is discussing a $30 billion merger with Liberty Global, and it means business.

What Does This Mean?

Liberty Global has headquarters in the US, Netherlands, and the UK, where it owns mobile and cable group Virgin Media. Spain-based Telefonica, meanwhile, has an empire sprawling across the Americas and Europe – including the UK, where it owns the O2 mobile network, rival to Virgin.

A merger of their UK businesses could help the combined company better compete with market-leaders Vodafone and BT by offering a broader range of combined cable and mobile products and services, as well as by reducing duplicate costs like head office staff and 5G infrastructure.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Safe just got safer.
Telecoms companies are usually lauded for their “defensive” nature: their long contracts give them a reliable stream of income and give investors typically predictable dividends. But Telefonica’s large amount of debt might’ve been putting those payouts at risk. By shedding its UK business, then, it’ll be able to use the influx of cash to reduce its debt, invest in higher-growth countries, and keep those all-important dividends a-flowin’.

The bigger picture: Don’t rain on my parade.
Both stocks’ prices initially rose in response to the negotiations, but there are still a few hurdles to clear before a deal’s finalized. For one, both sides are still working out who exactly will control the combined company – an issue that almost kept T-Mobile US and Sprint from teaming up. For another, British regulators will need to be satisfied there’ll still be enough competition to protect consumers from unfairly high prices. And they’re notoriously tough to please: Telefonica learned that the hard way in 2016, when regulators shut down its sale of O2 to rival Hutchison.

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