The Trump administration’s “monster” trade deal with China helped drive global stocks to records and push currency volatility to all-time lows. But the accord excludes $50 billion of U.S. exports and there are doubts China can buy the required $95 billion extra in commodities. And trade is only a small part in the competition with China that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned will require “every fiber” of America’s “innovative spirit.”

What you’ll want to read this weekend

The unlikely career of Leon Black, the most feared man in finance, has been marked by his ability to make billions of dollars skating around the edges of others’ misfortunes.

Vladimir Putin still has the power to shock. It wasn’t just the Russian ruler’s move to alter the constitution to ensure he retains control after his presidential term ends. Suddenly, a taxman who loves hockey is set to become prime minister.

Morgan Stanley closed out a winning earnings week for big U.S. banks. Wall Street did so good that President Donald Trump wanted some credit, asking JPMorgan to thank him.

Why Iran fights like it does: Years of sanctions have eroded conventional weaponry. Asymmetry and proxies are its advantage.

The second-biggest diamond in history will be carved up to become Louis Vuitton jewelry. For Bernard Arnault, Europe’s richest person, it’s a major marketing coup.

What you’ll need to know next week

• The third presidential impeachment trial in U.S. history begins.
• Davos tries to go greener, pushing leaders beyond good intentions.
• The International Monetary Fund has bad news about U.S. growth.
• The Libyan crisis heads to Berlin, and Greece isn’t happy.
• Netflix’s earnings may get a lift from the “The Irishman.”

What you’ll want to see in Bloomberg Graphics

America’s Risk of Recession Is Receding

Bloomberg has crunched the numbers for the exact odds of a U.S. downturn in the next year. While wage growth for the average American worker remains stagnant, soaring stock prices, a steeper yield curve and the lowest jobless rate in half a century have combined to push down the risk of recession.

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