Whatâs going on here? Finance chiefs from the US, Japan, and South Korea are forming a group chat to discuss the threats from a rising US dollar. What does this mean? The US dollarâs been strengthening all year â and thatâs great news for American tourists abroad, but itâs making for awkward conversations among trading partners. As the greenback strengthens, other currencies weaken, after all. And a severe slump can stress economies like Japan and South Korea: it shrinks their buying power, drives up inflation, and hurts confidence. Itâs no wonder these finance ministers are raising their voices. And if their words to support their currencies arenât enough, they may soon follow suit with actions. Why should I care? For markets: The not-so-sweet dollar milkshake. The dollar milkshake theory explains what happens when there just arenât enough US dollars to meet a rising demand. As the currency strengthens, countries that carry USD-denominated debt see their repayment costs rise, increasing the risk theyâll miss a payment. The resulting defaults, in turn, boost the dollarâs demand even more, because of its status as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. In worst-case scenarios, the milkshake froths up a global debt crisis, sending other currencies sliding and icing over a lot of portfolios. Luckily, weâre not there yet, and with emerging market economies in relatively fair health, we might not get there. The bigger picture: They donât call it âalmightyâ for nothing. That group chat might be limited to just the US, Japan, and South Korea, but everyoneâs got a stake in the conversation. The US dollar impacts economic activity everywhere and effectively holds the worldâs financial system together. As the worldâs primary reserve currency, itâs the financial buffer countries use to handle shocks. And because all the major commodities, like oil, are priced in dollars, changes in the currencyâs value have far-reaching effects, influencing the cost of goods and services worldwide. |