Wednesday, 26 June 2024

By Callum Newman Editor, Small-Cap Systems and Australian Small-Cap Investigator

[3 min read]

Dear Reader,

You know…sometimes you have to step back from the market…and chuckle at the great cosmic joke of it all.

See it through my eyes. For two years, in fact probably more, I heard practically nothing except stories about lithium.

The future, we were told, was batteries, renewable energy and electric cars.

Lithium stocks, in particular, soared to unimaginable valuations.

Admittedly, by the end, those share prices were ridiculous.

But the general trend of development seemed right.

Then the Ukraine war broke out and Europe was on the brink of freezing.

Meanwhile, the supply of uranium hasn’t nudged for over ten years because capital left the industry years ago. Uranium shares skyrocket.

Coal mines are a sin against God, except most of the emerging markets — and Australia — still get their electricity from burning it.

And gas? Fine if you live in Western Australia, because they at least have the smarts to reserve some of it. Victoria apparently barely has enough in storage to last a cold winter.

Now businesses are openly discussing whether they should leave Australia and go to the USA…because natural gas is dirt cheap there.

They frack so much stuff out of the ground it’s made the USA the indisputable energy champion of the world.

So the USA is happy to drill away, and supply the world with energy.

China and India have no choice but to use fossil fuels because of their gigantic populations.

Australia somehow manages to make a mess of all of it. Hence why smart investors need to get interested. Problem = opportunity!

Think of the abundance of energy resources in Australia…

We’ve got the gas, got the uranium, got the coal, got the lithium…we’ve got it all!

Then why, exactly, aren’t we drowning in low-cost energy?

Here in Melbourne, where I live, generally the “zeitgeist” is to hate fracking, coal, fossil fuels and capitalism in general.

Well…we’re going to get a test of our convictions soon if the energy dynamic continues on its current path.

It’s one thing to dismiss fossil fuels when they’re still heating your home, running your car and ensuring you have a job.

Now…how about when your pay packet – if you have one – is being shredded via energy at double, or more, of the cost?

It’s cold in winter in Melbourne.

We already have thousands of homeless in this state.

Are we going to add freezing conditions to those with at least a roof over their heads?

I’m not kidding. That’s already the reality in the UK for many, many people.

Australians, all over the country, are already getting slammed with the cost of living.

Look at this chart of retail stocks lately…

Investors in the market can see discretionary spending at its weakest point in years.

The coming tax cuts help some…unless the extra money is swallowed in higher energy bills.

We know one thing. Australians are voting with their feet…and moving to Queensland in droves.

Queensland is a big coal and gas producer. There are good wages to be had there…and they don’t look like going away anytime soon.

You need to think like this now as an investor.

What I mean is that the domestic strength is going to appear in WA and QLD more than Vic and Tassie.

Why? That’s where the mineral and energy dominance resides. It’s the high paying, secure jobs…with better weather too.

This is just one angle to the current investment market. Do you want to own Whitehaven Coal [ASX:WHC] — an energy producer — or Woolworths [ASX:WOW] — an energy consumer?

Don’t ask me. Ask the man who’s been tracking this train wreck for years…my colleague Greg Canavan.

Greg made the call to buy Whitehaven years ago. At one point the subscribers who acted on that were up 800%.

And while we don’t know what will happen in the future…

…this story is not over yet. You can’t fix an energy grid like a Siri upgrade, wirelessly and remotely. It’s going to take years to get Australia back on track.

Oh, by the way, did I mention just running ChatGPT — artificial intelligence — might soon need the power grid of a city?

Goodness me. 

Find out what’s coming up here.

Best,

Callum Newman,
Editor, Small-Cap Systems and Australian Small-Cap Investigator

Callum Newman is a real student of the markets. He’s been studying, writing about, and investing for more than 15 years. Between 2014 and 2016, he was mentored by the preeminent economist and author Phillip J Anderson. In 2015, he created The Newman Show Podcast, tapping into his network of contacts, including investing legend Jim Rogers, plus best-selling authors Jim Rickards, George Friedman, and Richard Maybury. He also launchedMoney Morning Trader, the popular service profiling the hottest stocks on the ASX each trading day.

Today, he helms the ultra-fast-paced stock trading service Small-Cap Systems and small-cap advisory Australian Small-Cap Investigator.

By Bill Bonner Editor, Fat Tail Daily

[3 min read]

Dear Reader,

Let's go over what we think we know. 

There are deep patterns in nature. They are not perfectly reproducible or predictable, but they are there. We don’t know exactly when or how we will die, for example, but we wouldn’t bet against it. 

The stock and bond markets follow long patterns too. From high to low, low to high, often over many decades... we call it the Primary Trend. 

In the bond market, for example, bonds hit a high in the late 1940s. The next epochal high did not come until 2020 — almost 80 years later. 

Stock market highs, meanwhile, came in 1929...again in 1966...and most recently, in 2021.  

Of course, we don’t know until later if these latest highs were the ultimate highs. Years go by, and it may still be uncertain. But in the bond market, it seems very unlikely that prices will hit their 2020 highs again in our lifetimes.  

In the stock market, on the other hand, prices have gone up... even surpassing their 2021 levels. What to make of it? 

No recovery

First, the picture is fuzzed by inflation. Nominal prices (in current dollars) have hit new highs. But the dollar has lost about 20% of its value since 2020. So, in real terms — adjusted to inflation — stock market prices have still not recovered. 

There is also something very funny going on in the stock market. While a handful of tech wunderkind are hitting incredible new highs, most stocks are not. The Wall Street Journal: 

‘The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies is down 17% from its November 2021 peak and has made no progress at all this year. In the S&P 500, which includes the biggest companies, the average stock is about where it was at the start of 2022, and more than half of the current constituents are down since then. Worse still, only 198 have managed gains this month, even as the index reached new intraday highs on 11 out of 13 trading days.’ 

Our old friend, Chris Mayer, adds this comment: 

‘It's been a strange year in the market: S&P is up 15% YTD, but that's mostly because of Nvidia and a couple of other tech giants. Most stocks have gone nowhere this year. At Woodlock House [Chris’s investment fund], we're up about 5% YTD. My competitive instincts don't like being so far behind the S&P but I think the S&P will have some problems with these over-valued, over-hyped tech stocks in the next few years. We will stay the course!’ 

Nvidia has gone up 30,000% over the last ten years. That’s something else we’ve learned... that investors can become ‘irrationally exuberant’ from time to time. Nvidia is now thought to be worth $3.3 trillion. But it is almost impossible that the company could ever earn enough money to justify that price. 

Yes, the company is growing fast. But its stock price is growing much faster. Either the sales pick up...or the stock price falls. Most likely, it will be the latter. 

We’ve also looked at US markets as part of a larger pattern — that of empires. Just as we can never be sure where we are in the patterns of the Primary Trend, there is even more doubt about the empire. We know it will end, but we never know exactly where we are in the cycle. 

And that picture, too, gets fuzzed by our own perceptions. People come to think what they need to think when they need to think it. Investors now believe Nvidia’s price — however absurdly high it is — will go higher. So must Americans come to see themselves as citizens of a great empire, destined to rule forever not merely over the 50 states...but over the Ukraine and the South China Sea.  Both thoughts set them up for big losses. 

Led to decline

Our guess is that the top for the US empire came right around the turn of the century. In gold terms, that was when stocks topped out — at more than forty ounces to the Dow. Now — again, measured in ounces of gold — the best of America’s public companies are worth only about half of what they were then. Since 1999, too, US government debt has risen by $30 trillion, while the dollar — compared to gold — has lost nearly 90% of its value.  

If empires must decline, they must find the leaders who can help them do it. In that regard, the 21st century has blessed the US with the jefes it needed. George W. Bush did not have to squander $8 trillion on a silly ‘war against terror’. Barack Obama and Ben Bernanke did not have to distort the whole economy, after the mortgage finance crisis of ’08, with bailouts for Wall Street and ultra-low interest rates for a decade. Donald Trump did not have to panic when the Covid virus appeared...and he and Joe Biden did not have to blow up the empire’s finances with another $15 trillion in pointless debt. 

These policy choices were almost preternaturally dumb. But they — like a lit cigarette at a gas pump — were just what the aging empire needed.  

And here, with today’s final word, is the New York Post: 

‘Pay up, America: Each of us owes $100K as national debt balloons to $35 trillion 

‘Biden administration officials don’t care. They want to spend more. 

‘Already they are spending so much that they’re increasing our debt by a trillion dollars every 100 days. 

‘President Donald Trump was no better: His administration increased our debt by almost $8 trillion. 

‘This will not end well.’ 

More to come...  

Regards,

Bill Bonner,
For Fat Tail Daily