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| Tuesday, April 13, 2021 |
| Predicting what's going to happen in the NFL Draft -- which kicks off two weeks from tomorrow on April 29 -- is always an impossible task, but there are some things we can be reasonably certain about at this point. |
| For instance, it seems like a certainty that the first three players picked this year will be quarterbacks -- and we might not see our first non-QB come off the board until the Bengals pick at No. 5. That means this year's rookie class of QB will have a significant impact on how the 2021 Fantasy season plays out. Which means you need to get to know them now. |
| That's what today's newsletter is about -- getting familiar with the five quarterbacks likely to go off the board in the first round: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Trey Lance. The Fantasy Football Today team has spent the last few weeks going deep on every Fantasy-relevant prospect, and I've got some of their thoughts on the biggest names further down, including their best Fantasy fits, their Dynasty value, and a breakdown of their strengths and weaknesses. |
| Something else I feel fairly confident about with the upcoming draft is we won't have any running backs drafted high in the first round. We may not have any running backs drafted in the first at all. That's partly reflection of a draft class that might be a bit light on prospective difference makers, but it's also a reflection of how few teams enter the draft with a real need at the position. And the list of potential teams looking for RB help in the draft got shorter in recent days, first with the signing of Giovani Bernard to the Buccaneers Monday, and then with James Conner joining the Cardinals Tuesday. |
| I wrote about both moves -- Gio here, Conner here -- and while I think Conner could make for a fine pairing with Chase Edmonds, with both potentially being Fantasy starters, I really don't like the Buccaneers backfield at this point. I didn't like it much when the Bucs re-signed Leonard Fournette, and I like it even less now that they have a legitimate pass-catcher for Tom Brady to lean on. This one could be an incredibly frustrating three-way split -- one I'll be avoiding if at all possible in my drafts. |
| That probably leaves the Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Jaguars, and Falcons as teams who may be looking for a starter at running back in the draft, and it's unlikely any of them will look for one in the first round, given their other needs and draft positions. We could see a half-dozen wide receivers come off the board before any running backs do this year. |
| I'll have more on the incoming rookie running back class next week, and I'll be focusing on some bounce back candidates later on this week -- we talked about quarterbacks and running backs on Monday's show and wide receivers and tight ends Tuesday, so make sure you check them out. As always, if you have any questions about your keeper leagues, the draft, the upcoming season or anything else, send them along to Chris.Towers@CBSInteractive.com and I'll answer them in an upcoming edition of the newsletter. |
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| For now, let's meet the incoming rookie quarterbacks. You're going to get very familiar with these players over the next few years. |
| Trevor Lawrence, Clemson |
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| Lawrence is widely considered to be one of the best QB prospects of the decade -- perhaps the best since Andrew Luck came out of Stanford. Like Luck, he has a combination of elite physical tools and a tremendous track record of production (and winning) at the collegiate level. Lawrence is going to be the next quarterback of the Jacksonville Jaguars, something that we've known since the Jags locked up the No. 1 pick. He could be Fantasy relevant immediately, like Joe Burrow was, especially with a pretty decent receiving corps on hand in Jacksonville. Here's what CBS Fantasy Editor Dan Schneier has to say about Lawrence as he enters the NFL: |
| Best Fantasy Fits |
| Jaguars -- "Lawrence is headed to Jacksonville and that's no secret -- Urban Meyer took the job because he knew he would inherit him at QB. Earlier this offseason, CBS Sports Senior Fantasy writer Dave Richard took a deep dive breaking down what the Jaguars offense will look like with Meyer and Lawrence added to the mix. Look for the Jaguars to lean on a play-action based passing game that is not afraid to take vertical shots down the field early and often, and this should mesh very well with Lawrence's skill set." |
| Dynasty Outlook |
| "In one-QB Dynasty formats, I would be likely to draft Lawrence higher than consensus due to his underrated upside as a runner (18 rushing TDs in 40 games at Clemson). In recent seasons, we've seen what a quarterback with rushing upside can mean for Fantasy purposes -- in some ways serving as a cheat code -- specifically if used in the red zone. Despite Clemson not working in much of a zone-read option element to their offense (even though Lawrence was more than capable), when he escaped the pocket and took off with the ball, Trevor at times beat linebackers on angles in space. He didn't run a 40-yard dash at his pro day, but I imagine he would've surprised with his speed. In 2QB and Superflex formats, Lawrence is and should be the 1.1." |
| Strengths |
| "Lawrence throws a "tall ball" … his ball placement on throws will often put the receiver in an excellent position to create maximum yards after the catch … Possesses the arm talent to make throws consistently at all three levels of the field in any weather conditions … Advanced mental processing before the snap that resembles a multi-year veteran at the NFL level." |
| Weaknesses |
| "Lawrence's accuracy improved during his final season at Clemson, but this is overall not a strength of his game … When Lawrence misses, he tends to miss high with his throws … Has a tendency to play hero ball and never give up on a play … Lawrence finished No. 1 in screen yards, per PFF -- these manufactured yards won't be as easy at the next level." |
| Zach Wilson, BYU |
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| There might not be a single player in college football who helped his draft stock more in 2020 than Zach Wilson, who had 33 touchdowns and just three interceptions in 12 games -- he had 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 18 games in his previous two seasons. That small sample size of success may scare some off -- especially since it came during a year in which many routines and schedules were impacted due to COVID-19 -- but it doesn't seem likely to scare the Jets off. They traded Sam Darnold and are seemingly locked in on Fields, who should start from Day One. Whether he's Fantasy relevant from Day One seems less likely, because the Jets are probably more than just a rookie QB away from being a good offense. Here's what Schneier has to say about Wilson: |
| Best Fantasy Fits |
| 49ers, Jets, Panthers -- "The Jets are the most likely suitor given that New York owns the No. 2 overall pick, the Jets are also a strong fit based on how we can project their system to look under first-year offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. After coming over from San Francisco with Robert Saleh, LaFleur is expected to bring with him a similar system to Shanahan's with the 49ers. The Jets have taken strides to rebuild their offensive line, Denzel Mims could take a Year 2 leap with improved QB play, and they have also added Corey Davis to the mix at WR." |
| Dynasty Outlook |
| "In one-QB dynasty formats, Wilson comes in at No. 11 overall for me, just behind Trevor Lawrence. In superflex and two-QB formats, he's top five on my big board. If you haven't already picked up on it, I'm pushing most or all of my poker chips to the middle of the table on Wilson. Betting on elite traits that stand out above the competitions has been an excellent way for NFL teams to identify blue chip prospects and Wilson certainly has elite arm talent. More specifically, betting on arm talent has been fruitful in three of the last four draft classes (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert)." |
| Strengths |
| "Rare arm talent that shows up more than ever when Wilson is tasked with throwing from an unbalanced base/platform … Wilson doesn't need to have his feet set to generate throwing power and accuracy … Pinpoint ball placement to all three levels of the field, earning elite 2020 grades (per PFF) as both an intermediate and deep thrower … Underrated athleticism and rushing ability both as a scrambler and on designed runs (642 career rushing yards, 15 TDs)." |
| Weaknesses |
| "Small sample size. Wilson broke out during the 2020 season at BYU but didn't make much of an imprint during his previous two seasons … Has dealt with injuries in the past. Shoulder and hand injuries limited him during the 2019 season … Wilson never faced a slew of highly-ranked opponents or top defenses while playing at BYU." |
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| Justin Fields, Ohio State |
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| Lawrence might be the best QB prospect in the draft and Wilson might go No. 2 overall, but Fields might be the most intriguing player from a Fantasy perspective. He's an elite athlete -- his Pro Day 40-yard dash of 4.46 is practically unheard of for a QB, especially one who weighs 227 points -- and he was an incredibly productive passer in college, racking up 67 passing touchdowns to just nine interceptions while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt over three seasons. And, of course, he rushed for 1,133 yards and 19 touchdowns in his 34 college games as well. He could be a legitimate top-five QB for Fantasy, and if he's starting from Week 1, he might be a starting-caliber Fantasy QB from Week 1 -- like Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts were in recent years. He's a somewhat divisive prospect, but Fantasy players know how valuable he can be. Here's what Dave Richard has to say about Fields: |
| Best Fantasy Fits |
| Washington Football Team, Patriots -- "The team Cam Newton played for in 2020 could adjust its offense to fit Fields quite easily, plus they already have a beefy offensive line. Unless the Patriots' receiving corps improves dramatically, however, Fields might have a harder time racking up passing yardage. He'd be a fun fit with the Pats but it might take a year or two for him to become more than a streamer." |
| Dynasty Outlook |
| "Unless Trey Lance or Mac Jones winds up in an incredibly good situation, dynasty leaguers will have to make a decision between Zach Wilson and Fields as the second-best rookie quarterback. Both have great arms, both are capable of making things happen when chaos ensues, but Fields' edge in rushing ability makes him more appealing in Fantasy Football (not necessarily in the NFL). Expect him to get picked with a top-15 pick in one-QB formats and somewhere between second and eighth overall in two-QB formats." |
| Strengths |
| "Good-sized quarterback with strong build. Regularly shed blitzers and tacklers thanks to the combination of agility and power … Very good, polished, consistent footwork that helped provide a solid base on his throws … Understood the basics of pre-snap reads and reacted accordingly … Mobility is a huge asset." |
| Weaknesses |
| "Had a tendency to hold onto the ball too long and stared down receivers … Threw what seemed to be designed/predetermined passes most of the time … Mixed bag in terms of awareness … Occasional "drifty" footwork might annoy some coaches, but rarely did it seem to impact his accuracy or arm strength." |
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| Mac Jones, Alabama |
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| Remember how good Tua Tagovailoa was in college? Well, Jones was even better last season. He passed for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns in 13 games, completing 77.4% of his passes for 11.2 yards per attempt. Those are simply massive numbers, even when accounting for how great Alabama's offense has been in recent years. Of course, he was also throwing to maybe the best WR corps in the nation, one that might feature two first-round picks, and he doesn't necessarily have the athleticism we prefer to see in quarterbacks at this point. However, he's been a fast riser in the draft process and might end up going inside the top five. Here's Dave's breakdown: |
| Best Fantasy Fits |
| Broncos, 49ers, Patriots -- "Plugged-in NFL reporters and analysts believe the 49ers are a prime destination for Jones. Kyle Shanahan's West Coast offense is usually predicated on the run but designed for the quarterback to make easy throws for the receivers to gain yards after the catch. There's no doubt Jones could handle it, though Jones' immobility would hold back Shanahan's imagination in ways other prospects who will be available at No. 3 overall would not." |
| Dynasty Outlook |
| "Jones' accurate arm, smarts and fearlessness should carry him to a starting job at some point this season. It would take some significant regression for Jones to crater into a backup, but it also would take a dynamic receiving corps and an offense tailored to Jones' anticipatory arm for him to be a statistical dynamo like he was at Alabama. There's also the growing demand for Fantasy quarterbacks who run for numbers, something Jones didn't do much at Alabama. Therefore, he'll really need to be in a spot where 4,000 passing yards and 28 touchdowns is the floor. That's hard to count on from a rookie. Expect Jones to slide into the second round (if not the third round) in traditional rookie-only drafts. Demand for quarterbacks in Superflex and 2QB formats will get him snared before the end of Round 1." |
| Strengths |
| "Stocky build in pads … Overall mechanics, from footwork to hip rotation to delivery were very good … Zero issues about his ability to read and react to defensive coverages … Wasn't in a hurry to check down to a short-area target. His check-downs were smart plays, not scared plays … No reported injuries through time at Alabama." |
| Weaknesses |
| "Sizable quarterback, but went down rather easily on sacks and rarely kept plays alive after taking on contact … Would sometimes pass up short, safe throws for more challenging throws … aggressive pass rushes sped up his throwing motion and delivery, resulting in off-target throws and incomplete passes." |
| Trey Lance, North Dakota State |
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| And here's the wild card of the class. There's no shortage of things you can ding Lance for -- he played just 18 games at North Dakota State over two seasons, throwing just 288 passes -- all but one of which came in 2019. Yeah, that's right: He didn't play in 2020, as the ND State season was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. So, lack of high-level competition, limited track record, and we haven't seen him play in over a year … There's a lot of risk inherent in Lance's profile, but he's big and he's fast and is the kind of prospect teams can dream on. Here are Dave's thoughts : |
| Best Fantasy Fits |
| Broncos, Patriots, Falcons, Steelers -- "The Steelers pick 24th and would have to give up a LOT to move high enough to draft Lance, but it would be fantastic if they did. Like with Atlanta, and a bunch of other teams, Lance would wait for a year before taking over. Ben Roethlisberger isn't going anywhere so long as his arm holds up. But the long-term idea of Lance slinging it to young receivers like Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool is awfully fascinating. That would be a lot of athletic talent for defenses to deal with." |
| Dynasty Outlook |
| "Fantasy managers have learned to prioritize quarterbacks who put up rushing stats. Lance has done plenty of that. Paired with his immense ceiling as a passer, there's incredible upside here. And it gets better: Lance won't be a prioritized pick in a rookie draft that's pretty deep. Only in a two-QB or deep Superflex dynasty league would Lance even get considered with a top-10 overall pick. But he might make it to the middle of Round 2 or even Round 3 in one-QB formats. That's unreal value for a guy who has the better-than-raw skills to be a great Fantasy passer." |
| Strengths |
| "Strong body that makes him difficult to wrap up in the pocket … Worked in a pro-style offense that saw him line up under center quite a bit … Studied, read and understood defensive coverages very well ... Actually handled protection calls for North Dakota State as a redshirt freshman … Was involved in many designed runs to attack defenses." |
| Weaknesses |
| "Lack of experience is a biggie. He threw 318 passes in 17 games at North Dakota State … Lack of top competition is a biggie. Played in the FCS, never took on any defenses from Power-5 Schools … Footwork and overall body mechanics improved through 2019 to his one 2020 game to his Pro Day, but he's far from a finished product." |
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