| So things are bad then? | Europe's lowest ever growth |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for March 25th in 3:01 minutes.

😍 We just wanted to give a heartfelt thanks to all the frontline workers keeping the world spinning right now. Everyone at Finimize is in awe of you, and never forget that our community is backing you all the way.

Today's big stories

  1. The International Monetary Fund believes this year’s recession will be at least as bad as the global financial crisis over a decade ago
  2. One of the world’s biggest investment managers is advocating an alternative way to make returns in these uncertain times – Read Now
  3. Eurozone economic activity this month was lower than expected, but the region’s jobs might be more secure than those in the US
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Broken Record

Broken Record

What’s Going On Here?

The global economy is stuck on a loop: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – a sort of bank for countries – is anticipating a recession that’ll be at least as bad as after the 2008 financial crisis.

What Does This Mean?

Despite the massive programs put in place by central banks like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank – as well as government spending packages the world over – almost 80 countries have asked the IMF for emergency loans to help stabilize their economies.

Between that and the broader economic malaise, the IMF now predicts the global economy will shrink by 1.5% this year – not far off the 1.7% of 2009 (tweet this). And developed economies like the US, Europe, and Japan could feel it most keenly: they’ll collectively shrink more than 3% this year, according to the IMF’s forecast – even though they’re among those best prepared to weather the storm.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Backup’s arrived.
The IMF said it’s ready to lend its entire $1 trillion war chest to help countries get things under control – and it’s clearly optimistic about the effect of its contribution, having projected a rebound in growth for the global economy in 2021. But its forecast came with a familiar caveat: the faster the virus is stopped, the faster and stronger the recovery will be.

For markets: Tell them something they don’t know.
The forecast probably didn’t come as much of a surprise to investors: they generally have a handle on the state of the global economy by the time big institutions like the IMF refreshes its predictions, thanks to official data releases and investment bank economists’ own, much prompter updates. In this case, investors had probably already seen Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast of a 30% fall in annualized second-quarter economic growth in the US – even though the investment bank reckons the global economy will still grow this year overall.

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2/3 Premium

New Sources Of Income

Investors have been dealt even more damage in recent days as companies slash dividends and share buybacks. But one of the world’s biggest investment managers thinks cheap “junk” bonds could offer an alternative, if risky, source of income.

Get the full story in the Finimize app

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Must Try Harder

Must Try Harder

What’s Going On Here?

Fresh survey data out on Tuesday showed economic activity in the eurozone and the UK was at its lowest level ever recorded this month. See us after class, please.

What Does This Mean?

Let’s start with the good news: the regular surveys, which ask purchasing managers how busy they’ve been each month, showed manufacturing industries were actually doing better than economists had predicted. But it’s the services sector – think airline, hospitality, and office workers – that represents over 80% of both economies. And with conferences being canceled, travel plans being abandoned, and restaurants and retailers being shut, services activity nosedived further than expected – and dragged the economy down with it.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Working hard, or hardly working?
Data on Tuesday also showed the eurozone labor market at its weakest since 2009. But unlike the US – where unemployment benefit claims jumped to a two-and-a-half-year high last week – economists reckon the region might actually avoid massive job losses. See, places like Germany, France, and Italy – which in total represent almost two-thirds of the eurozone’s economic strength – have laws that ensure workers get paid even when they’re temporarily unable to work. And while European countries have largely added to these programs with even more spending, US workers are still waiting on their government to deliver their first support package.

For markets: The writing’s on the wall.
Investors probably weren’t shocked by Tuesday’s data: governments, central banks, and companies have been warning of what’s to come for weeks now, after all. Just bear in mind that professional investors aren’t shocked by much: they have pricey newswires, sophisticated algorithms, and analysts on side to give them an edge in responding to news and analysis that “retail” investors simply don’t have.

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💬 Quote of the day

“When you get into a tight place and everything goes against you, till it seems as though you could not hold on a minute longer, never give up then, for that is just the place and time that the tide will turn.”

– Harriet Beecher Stowe (an American abolitionist and author)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: Safety First

“Why did gold’s price fall during the recent stock market selloff if it’s usually a safe haven?”

– Craig in Edmonton, Canada

“It’s hard to say conclusively without detailed market data, Craig, but one possible reason is that investment managers who’d borrowed money to make investments (i.e. used leverage) needed to free up cash after they received ‘margin calls’ from their brokers – that is, requests to cover accumulated losses in their accounts, or face having their positions closed altogether. Those investors might’ve been holding gold as a hedge against falling stock markets, but been forced to cash out at an inopportune time – pushing the commodity’s price down when it might otherwise have risen.”

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⚡️ Lightning insights

Economist Daniel Kahneman argues that every peek at the performance of your portfolio is just an opportunity for distress, because you’re more likely to be upset by losses than pleased by your gains.

Understanding how to resist your own impulses and capitalize on those of other investors will be invaluable during this crisis. So here’s a crash-course in behavioral investing.

📚 What we're reading (not about coronavirus)

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