Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six Newsletter! 

I hope you enjoyed watching J.J. Watt on Christmas night, because that will be the final time you ever get to see him play in a home game. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year sent shockwaves around the NFL with a tweet on Tuesday where he appeared to announce that he's retiring at the end of the season.

I should have known something big was coming today because the Chargers made the playoffs last night, and the Chargers ALWAYS get overshadowed by something. The good news for Chargers fans is that we'll be breaking down last night's game in today's newsletter, plus we'll be taking a look back at J.J. Watt's career. 

Here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get them to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. All right, let's get to the rundown. 

The Chargers are in the playoffs! I repeat, the Chargers are in the playoffs! One year after choking away a playoff berth, the Chargers made up for it by clinching one on Monday night with a 20-3 win over the Colts. After the game, Ryan Wilson, Will Brinson and I broke everything down and here are three key things we covered on the podcast:

• Chargers defense dominates. When the Chargers win, it's usually because their offense has a big game, but on Monday, the defense actually carried them to the victory. The defense got to go up against Nick Foles and they absolutely feasted on him. The Chargers sacked Foles SEVEN times in the game with two of those coming from Morgan Fox. The defense also recorded three interceptions on a night where the only defensive mistake came from Derwin James, who was ejected for an illegal hit (You can see the hit here). The Chargers offense wasn't great, but it didn't have to be, thanks to the way the defense played. Justin Herbert turned the ball over twice, but there were also plenty of bright spots for the offense, with most of those coming from Austin Ekeler (79 total yards, two touchdowns) and Keenan Allen (11 catches for 104 yards). The Chargers offense will definitely have to play better than it did Monday if they want to advance in the playoffs this year. 
• Colts offense looks horrible with Nick Foles.  The Colts offense might have finally hit rock bottom, which is saying a lot considering how bad this team has looked on offense all season. With Foles running the show, the Colts were a total disaster: Not only did Foles throw three interceptions, but he was sacked seven times AND Indy didn't convert a single third down (0 for 10). This score probably would have been uglier if not for an inspired effort from a Colts defense that forced two turnovers while sacking Justin Herbert four times. One of those sacks led to a fumble in the second half that gave Indy possession on the Chargers' 21-yard line, but the offense squandered that opportunity away, just like it squandered away any chance Indy had of winning. 
• Chargers clinch playoff berth. For the first time since 2018, the Chargers are headed to the playoffs. The win over the Colts officially clinched a spot for the Chargers, and now, they can look to improve their seeding. As things stand right now, the Chargers are the sixth seed in the AFC, but they're also still alive to get the fifth seed, which could be big, because if that happens, they would end up playing the AFC South champion. On the other hand, if the Chargers get stuck with the sixth seed, they'll be forced to open the postseason against either the Bills, Chiefs or the team that wins the AFC North. The thing about the Chargers is that they're absolutely dangerous and they have the talent to beat anyone, but they're also the Chargers and no one would be surprised if they got upset in the first round. This is going to be an interesting team to watch come playoff time. 

We talked about those three things, and to be honest, we spent most of our time breaking down what might happen with the AFC playoff picture. If you want to listen to the rest of our recap, be sure to click here. You can also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here. 

If you need more playoff content, we broke down the AFC wild-card race, and you can check that out by clicking here. We also tried to figure out which NFC teams might end up claiming the final two wild-card spots and you can read that here. 

If you read Prisco's Power Rankings last week, you're going to notice that not very much has changed since then. First of all, the top eight teams in this week's rankings are in the exact same spot as they were last week. I'm guessing Pete got lazy due to the holiday. 

With that in mind, let's check out Prisco's top five heading into Week 17: 

1. Eagles 
2. Bills
3. Chiefs 
4. Bengals 
5. 49ers

Dropped out: No one

I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since last week:

• For the second straight week, the biggest jump went to the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS. Following their win over the Jets on Thursday, Prisco vaulted them up four spots from 17th to 13th, which means the Jags have now moved up 11 spots over the past two weeks. The Jags (7-8) have put themselves in a position to steal the AFC South from the Titans (7-8), and that will happen if Jacksonville can beat Tennessee in Week 18 (This week's game against the Texans has no bearing on the division title race). 
• The biggest jump in the NFC went to the Carolina Panthers, which was mildly surprising, because I wasn't sure if Pete even knew they existed. Following their dominating win over the Lions, Prisco moved them up four spots from 25th to 21st. The Panthers could take a huge step toward winning the NFC South title on Sunday if they can beat the Buccaneers.  
• The biggest drop this week went to the Browns. Deshaun Watson has been the most expensive disappointment in the NFL this year not named Russell Wilson. Following the Browns' loss to the Saints, Prisco dropped them four spots, from 21st to 25th.  
• As for the bottom of the rankings, we have big news: There's a new team ranked last and that team is the Denver Broncos. If you need a recap of what life has been like for the Broncos over the past 48 hours, here's a quick one: They gave up 51 points to the Rams, their QB got made fun of by a "SpongeBob Squarepants" character, their coach got fired and Prisco moved them to the bottom of his power rankings. Not a great week for Denver.
  

If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything.

If it's Tuesday, that can only mean one thing: It's time for my weekly picks. 

Last week, I fell flat on my face with an 8-8 record and obviously, I blame that poor showing on the fact that I drank way too much eggnog in the lead up to Christmas. You should never drink eggnog while making picks, everyone knows that. I won't be drinking any eggnog this week, so let's hope that means I'll do better than I did last week. 

Anyway, here are three of my picks for Week 17:   

• Dolphins at Patriots (-2.5) (1 p.m. ET, CBS): The Dolphins are in the midst of what might be the most depressing December for any team in NFL history. Not only did they go 0-4 during the month, but Tua Tagovailoa is back in concussion protocol. After an ugly December, I don't see things getting much better in January, especially with Teddy Bridgewater possibly facing a Bill Belichick defense for the first time. PICK: Patriots 23-20 over Dolphins
• Panthers (+3) at Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET, Fox): This is a huge game and conventional wisdom says I should pick the Buccaneers to win since they have Tom Brady, who has a 22-year track record of winning huge games, but I'm throwing conventional wisdom out the window this week. Sure, there's an 80% chance that this pick will totally backfire and that Brady will continue his two-decade streak of winning huge games, but right now, the Panthers are playing better football, so I'm going to take  them. PICK: Panthers 20-17
• Vikings (+3.5) at Packers (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS):  The Packers are actually favored to win this game, which makes me wonder if the oddsmakers have been watching the same two teams that I've been watching this year. The Vikings find a new way to win every week and I don't think this week will be any different. PICK: Vikings 27-24 over Packers

To check out the rest of my picks for Week 17, be sure to click here.

In a surprising announcement that came out of nowhere on Tuesday, J.J. Watt has announced that he's going to be retiring at the end of the season. Watt wrote on Twitter that the Cardinals' Christmas night loss to the Buccaneers was his "last ever NFL home game."

The retirement announcement means that Watt's final two games will be at Atlanta (Week 17) and at San Francisco (Week 18). Although Watt has slowed down with age (33), he's going to go down as one of the best defensive players in NFL history. 

Here's a quick look at Watt's distinguished NFL career: 

• Three-time Defensive Player of the Year. Only three players in NFL history have won this award three times, and Watt is one of them (Lawrence Taylor and Aaron Donald are the others). After being drafted by the Texans with the 11th overall pick in 2011, Watt instantly became a human wrecking ball. Over the first five seasons of his career, he won the DPOY award three times while leading the NFL in sacks twice (2012, 2015). Watt is also a five-time Pro Bowler and five-time first-team All Pro. 
• Sack master. Not only did Watt lead the NFL in sacks two times, but he also holds the Texans' franchise record for most sacks with 101. If you include his 10.5 sacks with the Cardinals, Watt has 111.5 for his career, which ranks 38th all time. If Watt can just get three more sacks over the next two weeks, he'd move up to 33rd all time. Watt finished with 20.5 sacks in both 2012 and 2014, making him the only player to record at least 20 sacks in two different seasons since the sack became an official statistic in 1982. 
• Watt saved his best for the postseason. Although he never got to play in a conference title game, Watt did get to play in nine career postseason games. In those nine games, not only did Watt rack up six sacks, but he also had a pick-six, which came against Andy Dalton during Watt's first career playoff game in 2011. 
• Watt was also an offensive weapon. Not only was Watt a defensive star, but he also came up big on the offensive side of the ball for the Texans. During the 2014 season, Watt caught THREE touchdown passes, which was tied for the third-most on the team that year. Over the course of his career, Watt scored a total of six touchdowns with three defensive touchdowns and the three receiving touchdowns. 
• Why retire now? Watt didn't offer a full explanation for his retirement, but it likely has to do with multiple factors. For one, he's been battling constant injuries for the past six years, which have cause him to miss a total 42 games. Watt also dealt with a scary situation earlier this year when his heart went into Atrial fibrillation . Watt also now has a baby and in his retirement tweet, he seemed pretty pumped that the baby was able to attend the Christmas game on Sunday. At this point in his life, Watt clearly feels like it's time to put football behind him. 

For more on Watt's retirement, be sure to click here. 

The Broncos are such a mess right now that they couldn't even get the interim coach they wanted to hire. According to NFL.com, the Broncos wanted to give the job to defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, but he turned them down. In the end, the job went to senior assistant coach Jerry Rosburg, who wasn't even brought on to the coaching staff until late September. 

With Rosburg taking over, one thing is for sure: He definitely won't be getting the full-time job. So who might end up as the Broncos' new head coach? CBSSports.com's Jordan Dajani took a look at five possible candidates. 

1. Sean Payton (Former Saints head coach)
2. Dan Quinn (Current Cowboys defensive coordinator)
3. DeMeco Ryans (Current 49ers defensive coordinator)
4. Shane Steichen (Current Eagles offensive coordinator)
5. Frank Reich (Former Colts coach)

If you want a full explanation for why one of these guys would make sense for the job, then be sure to check out Jordan's story by clicking here. The problem for the Broncos is that they're stuck with Russell Wilson, so they need to bring in someone who can fix him, which is why an offensive-minded coach like Reich or Payton would make sense. Payton feels like a long shot, though, because the Broncos would have to make a trade for him -- he's still under contract with the Saints -- and they don't have a lot to offer because they sent so much draft capital to Seattle in the Wilson trade. 

Speaking of the Broncos, apparently, no one is safe in Denver. The team dumped two more people on Monday with the firings of special teams coordinator Dwayne Stukes and offensive line coach Butch Barry. 

It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Tua placed in concussion protocol. The Dolphins got a surprise on Monday when Tua Tagovailoa reported concussion symptoms. The Dolphins QB is now in concussion protocol and it would be a total surprise if he were to play this week considering he's already missed multiple games this year due to being in concussion protocol. Tua actually suffered his concussion in the first half against Green Bay, which might explain his second-half struggles (You can see the hit that likely caused the concussion here). If Tua can't go this week, then the Dolphins will move forward with Teddy Bridgewater for their key game in New England. 
• Lane Johnson expected to miss the rest of the regular season. The Eagles are already dealing with an injury to Jalen Hurts, and now, they've been dealt another blow. The Eagles' star left tackle will miss the rest of the regular season after tearing a tendon in his abdominal area. It's not clear if Johnson will be able to return for the playoffs, but if the Eagles can get the No. 1 seed in the NFC, he'd have nearly four weeks to heal before their first playoff game. 
• Mac Jones hit with big fine for illegal hit.  The Patriots QB took a cheap shot on Bengals corner Eli Apple, and now, he's been punished for it (You can see the hit here). According to PFT, Jones has been fined $11,139 for the low hit that he placed on Apple. 
• Randy Gregory suspended. The Broncos pass rusher got into it with Rams offensive linemen Oday Aboushi on Sunday, and now, both players have been suspended. The NFL has announced that both Gregory and Aboushi will be suspended for one game for throwing punches at each other during the Rams' 51-14 win over the Broncos on Christmas Day. Good will toward men definitely didn't apply in that fight. 
• Panthers sign Josh Norman to practice squad. The Panthers secondary took a hit this week with the loss of Jaycee Horn, so Carolina is bringing in an old friend: Josh Norman. The cornerback was signed to Carolina's practice squad on Monday and there's a chance he could play in this week's key game against the Buccaneers. 

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL in Week 16 to decide if we're all overreacting. 

Statement: Vikings will be a one-and-done playoff team. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction.  "The Vikings have a plus-5 (yes +5) point differential through 15 games, the worst by a 12-win team in NFL history. Minnesota was blown out by Philadelphia and Dallas, yet have 11 wins in one-score games, which is the most every by any team for one season. While this team screams one-and-done in the playoffs, there's an excellent chance the Vikings will get the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. Who's going to be the No. 7 seed in the NFC -- and can that team beat an offense with Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Dalvin Cook? Say what you will about the Vikings, but they find a way to pull off wins. Why can't they do that in the playoffs -- for at least one week?"

Statement: The Browns will regret giving Deshaun Watson $230 million. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "Replacement-level quarterbacks are playing better than Watson has in his four starts for the Browns. Watson was bad in Saturday's loss to the Saints, completing 15-of-31 passes for 135 yards with a rushing touchdown and an interception (his third in four games with the team). There have been four games this season where a quarterback had 20 attempts, completed less than 55% of his passes, didn't throw a touchdown pass, and threw an interception -- Watson is responsible for two of them. The Browns just aren't any better with Watson on the field in 2022. Let's see if that stays the same in 2023."

Statement: The Titans and Jaguars should rest their starters in Week 17. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "The AFC South is going to be determined in Week 18 regardless of the Week 17 outcomes. It doesn't matter if the Titans win or lose to the Cowboys this week and it doesn't matter what the Jaguars do against the Texans. All that matters is Week 18, which means both the Titans and Jags would be smart to rest any banged-up starters in Week 17."

There are plenty more overreactions from Week 16, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here