Take that, emissions | Ryanair's eyes are on the skies |

Hi John, here's what you need to know for November 2nd in 3:02 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. COP26 kicked off over the weekend, and there are bound to be winners and losers in the world's stock markets
  2. Jack Dorsey's has a point about hyperinflation, whether he's right or not – Read Now
  3. Ryanair reported worse-than-expected results, but investors aren’t particularly worried

Emission Impossible

Emission Impossible

What’s Going On Here?

COP26 – a United Nations climate meeting with more than 100 world leaders in attendance – kicked off in the UK this weekend.

What Does This Mean?

The 2015 Paris Agreement saw 196 countries agree to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but most of their plans aren’t ambitious enough to achieve that aim. And even if they are, members still haven’t been meeting the targets quickly enough to halve emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Cue COP26: a summit devoted to putting solid pledges in place and getting the whole process back on track. There could be any number of ways countries decide to do that, but expect a lot of talk about investment in renewable infrastructure, incentives to promote greener habits, and disincentives to limit the use of fossil fuels.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: The winners and losers of COP26.
It’ll come as no shock to hear that investors are expecting renewable energy companies and energy storage firms to benefit from countries’ COP26-inspired investments. In fact, the market for wind turbines, solar panels, batteries, and hydrogen energy technology could hit $27 trillion if the world gets on track for net-zero by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency. As for the potential losers, high emission sectors – airlines, shipping, chemical producers, and oil companies – are all set to be in the firing line from stricter regulations.

Zooming out: Aramco’s full of hot air.
Saudi Aramco isn’t going to take this sitting down: the world’s biggest oil company – which reported better-than-expected quarterly profit over the weekend – announced plans to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 last week (tweet this). But if you’re skeptical, you’re right to be: Aramco has previously laid out plans to up its daily oil production by more than 8% by 2027, even as its rivals have promised to cut theirs.

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Analyst Take

Jack Dorsey Has A Point

Jack Dorsey Has A Point

What’s Going On Here?

Jack Dorsey’s tweet last week – that we’re heading into a period of hyperinflation – received a lot of attention from investors.

But whether Jack’s precisely right or not is kind of beside the point. The point is that we probably are going to be facing high inflation for a sustained length of time.

And that means your classic inflation hedges – which are only built to offset inflation-induced losses in the short term – suddenly look inadequate.

Instead, then, you want a long-term store of value. Gold and (certain) commodities are good examples, sure, but there’s actually a much better choice.

So that’s today’s Insight: why hedging just won’t cut it, and which store of value will protect your portfolio in the long term.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Air Traffic

Air Traffic

What’s Going On Here?

Ryanair reported weaker-than-expected quarterly results on Monday, but investors have spotted just how many planes the budget airline’s putting into the sky.

What Does This Mean?

It’s true that investors had higher hopes for Ryanair, even though it posted its first quarterly profit since the start of the pandemic. But the company told them to keep their eyes trained squarely on the future. See, Europe’s biggest discount carrier has spent the pandemic using a substantial cash pile to increase the number of routes and flights it offers, and it’s got big plans to cut fares this winter to nab would-be passengers from its competitors too. In fact, the company’s expecting the number of passengers to overtake pre-pandemic levels as soon as next spring. Investors didn’t need telling twice: they shrugged off Ryanair’s initially disappointing results and sent its stock up.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: What energy costs?
This winter could be tough on Europe’s airlines, with a new Covid wave at risk of hampering customer demand and a rising oil price pushing up fuel costs. But at least Ryanair’s got the latter covered: it’s locked in the cost for 80% of all its fuel needs until next summer. That should help insulate the carrier even if energy prices keep rising, and protect its profits going into next year.

Zooming out: It always comes back to inflation. 
It’s not just fuel costs that are rising: businesses are seeing costs rise for everything from raw materials to labor. And unlucky for you, data out on Monday showed that a record 45% of UK companies are expecting to pass those costs onto customers through price hikes. That’ll only add to inflation worries, and put more pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates – which should discourage additional spending – when it meets later this week.

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💬 Quote of the day

“The past is always tense and the future, perfect.”

– Zadie Smith (a British novelist, essayist, and short-story writer)
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