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Tuesday, April 18, 2023
Happy Tuesday, everyone! Although it wasn't the happiest of Mondays for those Fantasy Baseball managers who invested early-round draft capital in two of the projected SP1s Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes. In some leagues, Burnes was the first pitcher off draft boards. Both starters left their outing on Monday with injuries. In addition to deGrom and Burnes, young flamethrower Hunter Greene left his Reds start with an injury as well. Below, we'll dive into more of the key action from Monday, other news and notes you need to know and more. But first, let's take a look at what we know about these three key injuries.
Injury updates
Here's what we know as of the wee hours of Tuesday on all of these injuries:
  • deGrom exited his start with right wrist soreness. The good news is that the injury doesn't seem to be related to areas he's been injured in the past including his elbow, shoulder and forearm. He'll continue to be evaluated further and the Rangers are calling his exit precautionary for now. The plan is to evaluate the injury further today. After the game, deGrom told reporters that he felt the issue early into his start and it only got worse as the night wore on. He felt as if he continued to pitch through what was four innings of no-hit ball, he would've risked potentially injuring something else as his mechanics were altered to make up for it. He can be considered day-to-day for now, but an IL stint and possibly an extended absence of further testing doesn't go as planned are certainly not out of the cards. We spoke more about these pitcher injuries on the Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 Podcast.
  • Burnes was removed from his outing on Monday with a left pectoral strain. On his last pitch of the game, you could tell something was off when Burnes immediately called for the trainer after tossing an 85.3 mph slider -- his slowest moving slider of the game and almost 1.5 mph below his season average for that pitch. The early signs appear to show that Burnes avoided anything major. Brewers manager Craig Counsell said early indications are that it's a relatively minor issue and Burnes could potentially make his next start on Sunday against the Red Sox. We'll see if Counsell's optimism is warranted.
  • Greene left his Monday start with a right tibia contusion after being hit by a comebacker. This is good news as the X-rays came back negative for any fracture. The expectation right now is that Greene will be able to make his next scheduled start against the Pirates on Friday.
Three waiver wire hitters to consider
  • Astros OF Corey Julks collected two hits, two runs, three RBI and his second homer on Monday. He hit 31 homers in the minors last season with a .271 batting average and has started five of Houston's last eight games. He's currently batting .310 and could be worth a look in deeper 14 and 15-team Roto leagues. Julks is just 2% rostered in CBS leagues. 
  • Do you need some more power? Of course you do. Jorge Soler is still just 48% rostered in CBS leagues despite connecting on his fifth home run on Monday. Soler brings into his next game a 95.8 mph average exit velocity and a 25% barrel rate.
  • Were we a year too early on the Josh Lowe hype train? After somewhat fizzling as a prospect call up last year, Lowe appears to be settling into a productive role with the Rays . He collected two hits and his fourth homer on Monday. Lowe is batting .372 with just a 17.4% strikeout rate compared to a 33% rate last year. He hasn't been starting against lefties, but he's mashing against righties. Lowe is just 42% rostered.
More waiver plays
Scott White broke down some of his favorite waiver wire targets on Monday and you should make sure these players aren't available in your leagues now. If they are, scoop them or claim them. If you want to find out all of Scott's waiver plays and his rationale, you can find that here.
These are the waiver claims Scott is making that stood out most:
  • Pirates SP Johan Oviedo: "Forget who we're talking about for a minute and just imagine I told you about a strapping 6-foot-5, 245-pound hurler whose fastball regularly touches 99, whose slider regularly touches 91, and who so far has had no issues finding the strike zone. You'd be pretty excited, right? Well, that describes Johan Oviedo to a tee. One start after shutting out the White Sox over 6 2/3 innings, registering 18 swinging strikes on 89 pitches, he threw seven one-run innings against the Cardinals , striking out 10. He issued just one walk between the two starts. He's added about 3 mph to that slider from a year ago, and it's turned him into a legitimate bat-misser. Of course, pitching for the Pirates isn't ideal, but for a waiver wire pickup, the upside here is enticing."
  • Rays SP Taj Bradley : "Bradley's major-league debut Wednesday was impressive enough, especially when you consider that he retired 10 of the first 12 batters he faced. He may have been a little gassed stretching to 78 pitches after throwing no more than 55 in either of his two minor-league starts, but he certainly showed why he's soared up the prospect rankings the past couple years. Last year, he had a 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 between Double- and Triple-A. Because he wasn't sent right back down after his debut, he didn't seem worth adding at the time, but since then, Jeffrey Springs has suffered an injury that could keep him out a couple months. When Bradley returns this week, it may be for good."
  • Giants 3B J.D. Davis : "If you've followed me for long enough, you may remember that J.D. Davis was one of my most treasured breakout candidates heading into the 2020 season. He had just hit .307 with 22 homers and an .895 OPS in a semi-regular role for the Mets , and the underlying data suggested there was more where that came from. It didn't turn out that way, and since then, he's moved on to San Francisco, where he may have finally landed that everyday gig. He's started nine of the team's past 10 games, and his performance certainly justifies it -- not just the forward-facing numbers but, again, the underlying data (85th percentile for both max and average exit velocity). The Giants have a history of maximizing overlooked veterans, and Davis may be their latest success story."
Buy-low options per Statcast data
The following players have underlying Statcast data that suggests they are actually performing considerably better than their raw stats suggest. With this in mind, they make for nice buy low options in trades as players who could be due for positive regression shortly.
  • Miguel Vargas - .305 xBA, .499 xSLG, 46% FB rate, more BB than K
  • Starling Marte - .280 xBA, .484 xSLG, 11.5% K rate, 11.4% barrel rate
  • JD Martinez - 95 MPH EV, 15% barrel rate, .282 xBA, .522 xSLG, also 33.8% K rate, though
  • MJ Melendez - 97.3 MPH EV, 23% barrel rate, .243 xBA, .570 xSLG, 14.5% BB rate but 37% K rate
  • Jake Cronenworth - career-high 47.5% hard-hit, .291 xBA, .528 xSLG, 12% walk rate
News & notes
  • Fernando Tatis returned to San Diego on Monday and will work out at Petco Park the next three days before being reinstated Thursday against the D-Backs. He hit six home runs in three rehab games over the weekend.
  • Carlos Rodon faced hitters in a two-inning simulated game Sunday. It sounds like he's targeting a May return, though there is no definitive timeline.
  • Raisel Iglesias threw a bullpen session Monday. Here's what manager Brian Snitker had to say: "He says he feels great; now it's just a matter of progression."
  • Tony Gonsolin threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Monday and is scheduled to throw four innings in a rehab start at Triple-A.
  • Dodgers catcher Will Smith went through a full workout Monday and told reporters that he's hoping to return Thursday, though he doesn't want to rush back. He was placed on the 7-day concussion IL Sunday.
  • Giancarlo Stanton is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with that left hamstring strain.
  • Zach Eflin looked good in a bullpen session and is on track to start Sunday against the White Sox.
  • Taj Bradley has been added to the Rays taxi squad and is in line to start Tuesday in Cincinnati.
  • Daniel Bard rejoined the Rockies on Monday and could be activated from the IL Tuesday. He's 60% rostered.
  • Mitch Haniger is set to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tuesday. He's missed the start of the season with an oblique strain.
  • Speaking of obliques, Jesse Winker was out Monday with oblique tightness.
  • Kris Bubic will require a second opinion on his elbow after he was diagnosed with a left flexor strain. That doesn't sound good.
  • Luis Campusano was placed on the IL with a left thumb sprain.
  • Spencer Steer was out of the lineup Monday due to a sore right knee.
  • Jake McCarthy has sat two of the last four games and is off to a rough start overall.
  • Pablo Lopez and the Twins agreed on a four-year, $73.5 million deal.
 
 
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