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Thursday, January 14, 2021 |
I'm starting to think it might be time to start a separate Jaguars newsletter and that's because I'm starting to feel like they're going to be making most of the headlines this offseason. |
Not only do they have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, which we'll probably be talking about weekly once the playoffs end, but they're also on the verge of making a splash coaching hire. Apparently, the Jags are finalizing a deal with Urban Meyer, which means there's a chance that he could be officially hired by the time you read this. |
We'll definitely be covering Meyer today, but don't worry, this won't be a Jaguars-only newsletter, because I'm not sure anyone would read that, so I've also tossed in plenty of playoff talk. With that in mind, let's get to the rundown. As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. All you have to do is click here and then share the link. |
1. Today's Show: Bold predictions for the playoffs |
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Even though I completely whiffed on my bold predictions last week, Will Brinson still invited me back for another week of bold predictions. Last week, I predicted that the Bears would beat the Saints in the Nickelodeon game and I think we all know what happened there. I should be slimed for that prediction. |
For this week's round of bold predictions, we made one prediction for each game. |
AFC divisional round bold predictions |
Baltimore at Buffalo (Ryan Wilson prediction): Stefon Diggs finishes with four TD catches. The NFL record for most touchdown catches in a playoff game is three, so this is an extra bold prediction from Ryan Wilson. That being said, Diggs did catch three TD passes in Week 16 and he tacked on another one against the Colts last week, so I won't completely count him out here, but the only way it's going even have a remote chance of happening is if this game turns into a shootout. |
Cleveland at Kansas City (John Breech prediction): Browns finish with more total yards than Chiefs. This prediction might seem crazy, but I could see one obvious situation where this happens: The Chiefs jump out to an early lead and then the Browns have to play catch up. We saw this last week in the Browns' win over the Steelers, a game where Pittsburgh out-gained Cleveland, despite losing 48-37. |
NFC divisional round bold predictions |
L.A. Rams at Green Bay (Breech prediction): Rams quarterbacks finish with more TD passes than Aaron Rodgers. These are called bold predictions for a reason and this one is extra bold. If Wolford and Goff can combine for just two TD passes, I think they have a chance here. There were only two games this season where Rodgers threw one or fewer TD passes and in both games, he was facing major pressure, which is something the Rams can do thanks in large part to the fact that they have the human QB-destroyer known as Aaron Donald. |
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (Wilson prediction): Antonio Brown finishes with three TD catches. Brown has been on a roll over the past four weeks. Not only has he caught at least one touchdown pass in each of his past four games, but he's also averaging 7.8 targets per game, which means Brady has been looking his way early and often. I'm not sure why Wilson is obsessed with making bold predictions about receivers catching touchdowns, but I think this one has a better chance of happening than the Diggs one. |
If you're wondering what Will Brinson did during the show, he was drinking brandy. Just kidding, he graded each of our predictions. If you want a total breakdown of our predictions along with Brinson's grades -- and trust me, you do -- you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. |
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2. Jaguars land Urban Meyer |
I haven't been covering coaching interviews here in the newsletter because there are too many to keep track of, but I'll definitely be covering coaching hires and we're getting close to a big one, with the Jaguars currently trying to finalize a deal with Urban Meyer. |
Although there are still six open coaching jobs in the NFL, I'm going to go ahead and say that this is going to end up being the most intriguing coaching hire of 2021. Putting Meyer in Jacksonville is going to be interesting and that's mostly because -- unlike the Jaguars -- he's been wildly successful at everything he's ever done, at least from a coaching stand point. From Bowling Green to Utah to Florida to Ohio State, Meyer has been nearly unbeatable as he's compiled a 187-32 record in 17 seasons while winning three national championships (two at Florida and one at Ohio State). |
Of course, being successful in college doesn't guarantee success in the NFL and if you need proof, just look at Nick Saban. Although he's arguably the most successful coach in college football history, he went just 15-17 during two NFL seasons with the Dolphins. Steve Spurrier (12-20), Dennis Erickson (40-56), Butch Davis (24-34), Mike Riley (14-34) and Lane Kiffin (5-15) were also successful college coaches who couldn't cut it in the NFL, so there's no guarantee this gamble is going to work. |
That being said, Meyer does have two big things working in his favor: He's going to have the top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft (Hello Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields) and the Jaguars are going to have the most cap space of any team heading into the upcoming season, which is a huge deal, since the cap will likely be staying the same or shrinking this year. |
There's been speculation that Meyer's asking price is $12 million and although that sounds like a lot, it won't be surprising if the final number ends up being close to that. The Jaguars have made it clear that they want to win and it seems they're willing to pay whatever the price is to get the franchise turned around. |
Although this hiring seems like a home run, the Jaguars should have one concern with Meyer and that's the fact that he's stepped down from his past two jobs due to health issues. With Meyer now 56, there's definitely some risk in giving him a long-term contract. |
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In other hiring news, the Lions have found their new general manager in Brad Holmes. The team has agreed to terms on a five-year deal with the Rams Director of College Scouting. The move benefits the Rams because it means they'll be getting an extra third-round pick in each of the next two drafts as part of the new NFL rule that rewards a team for losing a minority candidate to a coaching job or a GM job with another team. |
3. Five more bold predictions for the divisional round |
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As you may or may not have noticed, we love making bold predictions here, which is why you're getting even more playoff bold predictions right now. This round of predictions isn't coming from me or Ryan Wilson though, this time you'll be getting them from Cody Benjamin, who somehow found time to write them on Wednesday even though he also had to take care of the newsletter because I decided to take the day off. |
Here are Cody's five bold predictions for the divisional round: |
1. Ravens upset Bills 2. Kareem Hunt scores three touchdowns against Chiefs 3. Tom Brady throws game-winning TD against Saints 4. Drew Brees retires after losing to Buccaneers 5. Rams bench Jared Goff in tight game against Packers |
I think that fifth prediction might be my favorite and mostly because it's two predictions in one: Not only is Cody predicting that Goff will be benched, but he thinks the Packers-Rams game is going to be close. If you'd like to read Cody's explanation for each of his predictions, be sure to click here. |
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4. Ranking the best possible Super Bowl matchups |
With eight teams still left in the NFL playoffs, that means there are a total of 16 Super Bowl matchups that are still possible (It took me way more math than I care to admit to figure that out). With that in mind, Patrik Walker decided to rank the five sexiest possible Super Bowls that could still happen. |
Let's check out Patrik's rankings: |
1. Chiefs-Buccaneers 2. Chiefs-Packers 3. Bills-Packers 4. Ravens-Packers 5. Browns-Saints |
The top two are pretty obvious. I mean, I don't think anyone is going to complain if the final game is Patrick Mahomes against Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes against Aaron Rodgers. As a matter of fact, I'm pretty sure my bosses at CBS would be thrilled with either one of those games since the Super Bowl is on CBS this year. |
One game that didn't crack Patrik's top-five is Ravens-Rams. As a graduate of Miami of Ohio, I am morally obligated to be rooting for that Super Bowl since both coaches in that potential game (John Harbaugh and Sean McVay) graduated from Miami. Fun fact: Miami is the only college in America that has produced a Super Bowl-winning quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger) and two Super Bowl winning coaches (Harbaugh and Weeb Ewbank). Sorry, I got sidetracked there. If you'd like to check out Patrik's rankings, be sure to click here. |
5. AFC playoff quarterbacks are making history |
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If you want to stump someone with some trivia this weekend, just ask them to name the oldest quarterback left in the AFC playoffs. Although Patrick Mahomes has been in the NFL the longest, he is not the oldest QB in the AFC and that's because the honor goes to Baker Mayfield, who will be 25 years, 278 days old when he faces the Chiefs on Sunday (Mahomes will be 25 years, 122 days). |
Here are a few interesting nuggets about the youth movement in the AFC: |
- This year marks the first time ever that all four AFC starting quarterbacks are under the age of 26.
- With three quarterbacks from the draft class of 2018 starting this weekend in Mayfield, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, it will mark just the second-time in NFL history that one draft class has produced three divisional round starting quarterbacks in the same year. The only other time it happened came in 2008, when three quarterbacks from the class of 2004 also started in the divisional round (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger).
- The Bills and Ravens game will mark just the fourth-time ever that two quarterbacks under the age of 25 have met in the divisional round. The only other times it happened came in 1985 (Dan Marino vs. Bernie Kosar), 2000 (Daunte Culpepper vs. Aaron Brooks) and 2019 (Mahomes vs. Deshaun Watson).
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The fact that the AFC quarterbacks are so young is definitely more notable since three of the four starting quarterbacks in the NFC are 37 or older (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees). |
6. Steelers are in the market for an offensive coordinator |
It's not often that a 12-4 team decides to part ways with their offensive coordinator, but that's exactly what the Steelers will be doing this offseason after the team announced on Thursday that they will not be renewing Randy Fichtner's contract. |
Here's why this is an interesting move and why the Steelers likely felt they had to make it: |
- Tomlin's right-hand man. Fichtner had been in Pittsburgh since Mike Tomlin was hired in 2007. After originally being hired as a receivers coach, Fichtner climbed his way of the ladder, moving from receivers to quarterbacks coach in 2010 before eventually being named offensive coordinator in 2018. If Tomlin is letting him go after 14 seasons, that feels like a seismic shift in Pittsburgh.
- Steelers struggled on the ground. Over the past three seasons, the Steelers finished 31st (2018), 29th (2019) and 32nd (2020) in the NFL in rushing and that's just not going to cut it in Pittsburgh. If the Steelers had won a few playoff games, Tomlin likely would have tolerated the struggles, but with the ground game basically dead, Tomlin clearly felt it was time to make a change.
- Fichtner was tight with Big Ben. One thing that's still unclear about the Steelers' future is whether Ben Roethlisberger is going to return in 2021. The QB was tight with Fichtner and it will be interesting to see if this move has any bearing on his decision.
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7. The Kicker! |
The kicker meltdown rankings are back for another week. During the wild-card round, two of the four kickers on the list ended up missing a field goal. This week, we're working with fewer teams, so the list has been trimmed from four kickers to three. The divisional round has been brutal for kickers over the past few years as they've hit just 69.2% of their field goals from 45 or longer since 2015. |
With the in mind, here's this week's "Most likely to struggle" rankings: |
1. Will Lutz: Lutz is normally one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL, but he's fallen apart over the past few weeks. In the past three one-score games the Saints have played, Lutz has gone an ugly 4 of 8 on field goals. He also missed a field goal in the wild-card round against the Bears. 2. Cody Parkey: In the kicking department, the biggest winner of the wild-card round was Cody Parkey and that's because he didn't face a single pressure kick during Cleveland's win over the Steelers. Of course, we all know what happened the last time he faced a pressure kick in the playoffs: He missed on a double-doink. Although he's been good this year, he's on this list because we still have no idea what his state of mind is going to be the first time he walks out to attempt a pressure-filled field goal in the playoffs. Also, in the past five games played at Arrowhead Stadium, opposing kickers have hit just 50% of their field goals (5 of 10). Yikes. 3. Matt Gay: The Rams kicker had ice in his veins during the wild-card round, which is good news for him, because there's going to be even more pressure on him during the divisional round. In 24 career games, Gay has only played in one game where the kickoff temperature was below 45 degrees. The temperature in Green Bay is expected to be around 30 degrees at kickoff on Saturday. It's not easy to kick in the cold and it's definitely not easy to kick at Lambeau, so Gay will be someone to keep an eye on this weekend. |
My meltdown rankings should also include me because I had an internal meltdown for my birthday on Wednesday knowing that I took one step closer to 40. I think this means I'm just a few years away from a mid-life crisis. |
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