Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

We have Week 7 kicking off tonight with a game that features the Jaguars playing on the road against the Saints. The Jags probably don't mind playing in New Orleans and that's because they've been one of the NFL's best road teams this year. Heading into Week 7, there are somehow only four teams left in the entire NFL that are still undefeated on the road, and the Jaguars are one of them (the Chiefs, Lions and Buccaneers are the others). 

We'll be previewing tonight's game in today's newsletter, plus we'll be taking a look at which NFL coach is currently sitting on the hottest seat. 

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.

For today's episode of the "Pick Six NFL" podcast, we brought on two former NFL players to break down all of the latest NFL news: Brady Quinn and Leger Douzable. 

During Thursday's show, they were joined by host Will Brinson, and the three of them discussed a multitude of topics, including whether Justin Herbert is clutch. The Chargers QB is widely considered one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he's also thrown a total of 13 interceptions in his career that came in the fourth quarter of games that were within one score, which is the most by any QB in the NFL since Herbert's rookie year in 2020. 

His most recent fourth-quarter interception in a one-score game came on Monday night against the Cowboys when he was picked off by Stephon Gilmore with just under 90 seconds left to play in a 20-17 game. 

So is Herbert clutch or not clutch? 

"I hate to say it, but he's anti-clutch right now," Douzable said. "The film will show you who you are ... We saw it in Week 1 [against the Dolphins], Justin Herbert had the chance to be the hero and he doesn't get it done in that game. He's not clutch right now. He has to prove it otherwise. Thirteen picks in the fourth quarter of one-score games, that's not a great stat."

If you want to hear Quinn and Douzable talk about Herbert's clutchness, then be sure to click here so you can listen to today's episode. The two also talked about Jared Goff's resurgence, plus they made some predictions for tonight's game between the Jaguars and Saints. If you prefer your podcasts in video form, you can also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here. 

With just a few hours ago until these two teams kickoff tonight, we still don't know if Trevor Lawrence is going to play. The Jaguars QB injured his knee on Sunday and he's been limited in practice all week. If Lawrence can't go, the means the Jags will be rolling with C.J. Beathard, who hasn't started a game since 2020. Not to be outdone, Derek Carr is still slightly banged up. The Saints QB was on the injury report this week due to his shoulder, which he originally injured in Week 3. 

My good buddy Jared Dubin put together CBS Sports' deep-dive preview for this game, and here's how he sees things playing out: 

• Why the Jaguars can win:  With the QB situation up in the air, this game could come down to how well the Jaguars play on defense and they actually match up well with the Saints. The Jags are surrendering just 75.3 rush yards per game, which is the third-best number in the NFL. If they can keep that going tonight, it will force Derek Carr to beat them, which would put the Jags in a solid spot considering Carr has only topped 200 yards passing one time over his past four games. The Jags pass-rush will also need to have a big game and that certainly seems possible with the Saints missing both of their starting tackles (Ryan Ramczyk and James Hurst) to injury. 
• Why the Saints can win:  The Saints have had one of the best defenses in the NFL this year. Heading into Week 7, they're one of only two teams in the NFL that ranks in the top nine for fewest pass yards surrendered per game and fewest rush yards surrendered per game (The Browns are the other team). Tonight, this defense will either get to go up against a banged-up Trevor Lawrence or a QB who hasn't started a game in three years in Beathard. No matter who it is, you have to figure the Saints defense will be licking its chops when it gets on the field. The Saints are 0-3 this year when they surrender 18 points or more, so if the defense can hold the Jags under that number, New Orleans will be feeling very good about its chances of winning.  

You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here's one prop I like: 

• ONE PROP I LIKE: Blake Grupe OVER 6.5 points (+105). After a one-week hiatus from handing out any kicking props, we are back. I love this number for Grupe and I love it even more because it's currently plus money. Not only has Grupe gone over this number in five of six games this year, but he's also scored at least nine points in every Saints' home game and this game is being played in New Orleans. Due to the precarious QB situation on both sides tonight, I think this will be a defensive struggle where we see a lot of field goals. 

My prime-time prop record is 9-4 this year. 

Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have tonight:

Jared's pick: Jaguar 20-16 over Saints
My pick: Jaguars 24-17 over Saints

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, our experts are leaning toward the Jaguars winning in a game where New Orleans is currently favored by 2.5. 

When Bill Belichick won his sixth Super Bowl title back in 2018, it didn't seem like there was any possible way that he would be on the hot seat just five years later, but that's exactly where we are right now. With the Patriots currently sitting at 1-5, Belichick is inching closer to the top of our hot seat rankings. 

As we head into Week 7, here's a look at our rankings, which were put together by Tyler Sullivan. 

1. Matt Eberflus (1-5 Bears)

2. Bill Belichick (1-5 Patriots)

3. Brandon Staley (2-3 Chargers)

4. Mike Vrabel (2-4 Titans)

5. Ron Rivera (3-3 Commanders)

If you want to know why each of these coaches made the list, you can read Tyler's full story by clicking here. One coach who has worked his way off the hot seat is Josh McDaniels. However, his seat could start warming up again if the Raiders lose to Eberflus' Bears this week.    

With six weeks officially in the books, that means we're now one-third of the way through the regular season, so we thought now would be a good time to take a look at the contenders and the pretenders in the NFL this year. 

The names on the contenders list probably won't surprise you -- teams like the Chiefs, Eagles and Dolphins all made the cut -- but you might be surprised by a few names on Jordan Dajani's pretenders list, so let's check those out, starting with one of the teams that will be playing tonight. 

PRETENDERS

• Jaguars (4-2). "Jacksonville may be the best team in the AFC South, but at this point, it's hard to imagine them challenging teams like the Chiefs or Dolphins for the AFC."
• Browns (3-2). "I hate to put the Browns in the pretender category because they have an ELITE defense. ... This defense is going to keep the Browns in every game, but questions remain about the offense. I want to know if Deshaun Watson will fully recover from his rotator cuff injury.  CBS Sports Lead NFL Insider Jonathan Jones reports that the injury to the rotator cuff is a deep bruise in the back of the shoulder."
• Seahawks (3-2). "The Seahawks are statistically middle of the road offensively, and reigning Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith has thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game just once this season -- and needed overtime to do so. ... Seattle's defense is absolutely improved and honestly fun to watch, but I don't see this team as a Super Bowl contender right now."

If you want to see the full list of contenders and pretenders, be sure to check out Jordan's story here.  

When an NFL player suffers an Achilles tear, that injury usually knocks them out for nine to 12 months, but Aaron Rodgers is trying to buck that trend. There's been speculation that Rodgers could return to the field before the end of the season. If he were to return in January, that would be unprecedented because it would put him back on the field just four months after his surgery. 

Not only was Rodgers at the Jets game in Week 6, but he was walking without crutches AND throwing the football on the sideline. 

So is it actually possible that Rodgers could return this year? Let's break down all the chatter. 

• Why Rodgers has hope of a quick recovery. When Rodgers underwent surgery, the doctor used a "speed bridge" technique to repair the Achilles, which is supposed to accelerate recovery. Not many NFL players have undergone that procedure, but there is at least one notable player who has: Cam Akers. The former Rams running back was able to return to the field just 5.5 months after tearing his Achilles after the speed bridge technique was used in his surgery. 
• Robert Saleh isn't ruling out a return. The Jets coach said this week that Rodgers is "fueled by doubt ," which is why Saleh could see the QB returning this year. "For him to be walking already, I wouldn't put anything past him. He is a big believer in manifestation; you are who you think you are, and you become what you think about. He is willing himself to return faster than what you're supposed to be. ... I think he's fueled by doubt -- I don't think, I know -- he's fueled by doubt. The more you doubt him, the more fuel he has. He's on a mission."
• Best-case scenario. If everything goes perfectly, Rodgers could theoretically return by Week 15, according to CBS Sports HQ injury expert Marty Jaramillo. "He's moving almost three times as fast as traditional protocols," Jaramillo told CBSSports.com this week. "No boot, no crutches, minimal limp. It's quite exponential. There is no precedent for this type of recovery following an Achilles tear. He is beating back Father Time."
• Rodgers pumps the brakes slightly on all the return talk. Although Rodgers is definitely trying to return this season, he admitted this week that he still has a lot of rehabbing to do. "There are critical markers that I have to hit as far as single-leg strength and being able to do heel raises and being able to do explosive movements. And these are all progressions that take time."

If Rodgers hits those critical marks sooner rather than later, it's very possible that we could see him again this season. Even though he's recovering quickly, I think the earliest we'd see him back is January and that will only happen if the Jets are contending. Even if he's cleared to play, the Jets aren't going to throw him out there if they're 6-9 heading into the final two games of the season. Basically, a lot has to happen before we might see Rodgers on the field, but at this point, it at least seems plausible. 

It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Mecole Hardman headed back to Kansas City. The former Chiefs receiver is headed back to Kansas City. The Chiefs acquired him on Wednesday after making a trade with the Jets. If you want to check out the full details of the trade along with our grades for both teams, be sure to click here.  
• Kyler Murray and Budda Baker to practice. The two Cardinals stars have both been designated to return from injured reserve, which means we could soon see them playing. The team now has 21 days to move Murray and/or Baker to the active roster. This sets the stage for Murray to return to the field at some point between Week 8 and Week 10. The Cardinals opponents during that span are the Ravens, Browns and Falcons, and if I had to guess, I'd say Murray returns for the Falcons game (I can't see the Cards throwing him out there against the Browns defense). 
• Anthony Richardson set to have season-ending surgery. It's official: Anthony Richardson's season is over. The Colts QB is dealing with a shoulder injury and one option to fix it was to have season-ending surgery, which is what he's decided to do. Gardner Minshew will now be taking over as the Colts starting QB for the rest of the season .
• Roger Goodell gets three-year extension. The NFL commissioner, who's held his job since 2006, just got a new three-year deal this week that will keep him on the job until March 2027. It's not clear how much Goodell will be making, but according to at least one report, his CAREER earnings will be nearing $700 million by the time his contract ends. 
  
• Deshaun Watson not sure if he can play this week.  The Browns QB could miss another game while he continues to deal with his right shoulder injury. It's been a "tricky" injury for Watson, which is why he doesn't have a timetable on a possible return. "It could be tomorrow, it could be Sunday, it could be two weeks from now. I'm not even sure," Watson said this week. "I can't put a timeline on anything right now."