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Hi John, here's what you need to know for February 18th in 3:05 minutes.

🎉 Massive news: the Community section in the Finimize app is now officially live. It’s where you’ll be able to join one of our analyst-run group chats, as well as share your thoughts with loads of your fellow Finimizers. You’ll find all our events in there, too – including those exclusively available to Premium members. (Psst, there are eight of them just next month 🤫)

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Today's big stories

  1. Japan’s economy shrank last quarter, with October’s sales tax hike hitting spending much harder than expected
  2. Investment giant Invesco piled into emerging market stocks at an incredibly unfortunate time – Read Now
  3. French railway company Alstom may buy Bombardier’s train business for over $7 billion
1/3

Land Of The Rising Glum

Land Of The Rising Glum

What’s Going On Here?

Things are looking pretty bleak for Japan: data released on Monday showed the country’s economy shrank at its fastest rate in years last quarter.

What Does This Mean?

The world’s third-largest economy shrank at its fastest rate of decline since 2014, and far quicker than investors were expecting. That acceleration may have something to do with a sales tax that arrived back in October: consumer spending saw an 11% drop in the last three months of 2019, dragging down the Japanese economy as a whole.

This isn’t a first for Japan, with a 2014 tax increase having had a similar effect. So the government did take some pre-emptive economy-boosting measures to help cushion the effects. But Monday’s data seems to suggest they didn’t work – and given that Japan's central bank has already lowered interest rates into negative territory, there’s not much it can do either.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Japanticlimax.
Even if investors brush off the sales tax hike as a one-off, it’s not like Japan’s outlook is particularly bright: the country’s economy is expected to suffer a fresh hit from the coronavirus outbreak. And if that leads its economy to shrink again in the first quarter of 2020, that would put Japan in a recession – i.e. two consecutive quarters of economic decline. Investors are starting to get nervous at the thought, which might be why Japanese stocks fell on Monday.

The bigger picture: Tourist trap.
Chinese tourists’ money has become an important part of the Japanese economy, and there was some good news on that front on Monday, at least. China pledged to implement its own economy-boosting measures to help deal with the economic blow from the coronavirus outbreak, which could include lower taxes and interest rates. That, in turn, should increase Chinese citizens’ purchasing power at home and abroad.

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2/3 Premium Story

The Crown Slips

Back in November, Invesco –  an investment giant with $1.2 trillion under management – said buoyant data from emerging economies like China, Korea, and Brazil had prompted their fund managers to “meaningfully” boost holdings of emerging market shares. Then the coronavirus hit.

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3/3

Full Steam Ahead

Full Steam Ahead

What’s Going On Here?

Alstom is done being choo-choosy: the French railway company has reached a preliminary $7 billion deal to buy transport manufacturer Bombardier’s train business.

What Does This Mean?

Alstom, which makes trains and railway infrastructure, has been looking to expand for some time so it can more effectively go up against its biggest competitor: China’s state-owned rail supplier. And after a major deal with Germany’s Siemens fell through last year, it now seems to have found a new plaything.

Bombardier might've let out a toot of relief: the firm has $9 billion of debt, over $1.5 billion of which is due next year. Short on cash to pay that off, the Canadian manufacturer has been selling off all sorts of assets, including its commercial jet business to Airbus. The company’s train business – which makes vehicles for San Francisco, London, and New York – looks like it’s next to depart, leaving Bombardier a lean, mean, private jet-making machine.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Too good to be true?
Though the deal’s not done – talks are ongoing –  investors seem to be getting ahead of themselves. Alstom’s stock went up 4% on Monday, suggesting investors think it’s bagged itself a bargain, while Bombardier’s shares fell. Play it cool, guys: European regulators halted Alstom’s deal with Siemens (they thought it could lead to unfairly prices) and the same could happen here. If it does, Bombardier might decide to change direction: it’s already thinking about selling its private jet business to US conglomerate Textron instead.

Zooming out: Jupiter ascending.
Alstrom’s reason for the merger – to scale up – is a pretty common one. Just ask fund manager Jupiter, which announced a $480 million deal to buy rival Merian on Monday. Both firms’ profits have come under pressure as the rise of passive investing puts the squeeze on active managers’ fees. They’re hoping that teaming up to manage $85 billion worth of assets will help.

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💬 Quote of the day

“The greatest glory in living lies not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.”

– Nelson Mandela (a South African anti-apartheid revolutionary, political leader, and philanthropist)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: Eyes Wide Open

“Why are European banks’ earnings such a big deal?”

Jonas in Texas, USA

“There are a couple of reasons investors pay particular attention to what European banks say and do, Jonas. The first is that their shares make up around 10% of the European stock market, which means they have a sizable influence on the direction of the overall market. So even if an investor hasn’t bought banks’ shares directly, they’re likely to feel the impact on, say, exchange-traded funds they’re invested in. The second is that since banks advise businesses on mergers and acquisitions and offer them loans, they tend to have a good feel for what companies are up to, and therefore for how the overall economy is likely to be doing.”

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⚡️ Lightning insights

The average house price is around £460,000 in London and $680,000 in New York. No wonder renting’s become more popular in recent years…

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📚 What we're reading

  • So about that coronavirus vaccine… (Science Alert)
  • The internet’s ruined the meet-cute (Vice)
  • Never forget those firefighters who put their lives on the wine (Wine Spectator)
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