| | | | | | | | November 26, 2024 | | | | | Jeff Bergstrom
Editor
John Lothian News | |
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| | | | Observations & Insight | | |
Volatility Insight of the Week: Wheat skew ratio and convexity, as measured by CME Group's Volatility Index (CVOL), have risen amid geopolitical events. Wheat convexity has reached the highest levels since the summer as options traders position for potentially significant market moves in either direction. To learn more about CVOL, please visit here. | | | | | | Lead Stories | | | Bitcoin options trade shows more bets on retreat after failing to breach $100,000
Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss - Reuters
Investors in the world's largest cryptocurrency are anticipating a significant downward move after bitcoin failed to hit an all-time peak of $100,000, according to a crypto trading platform citing recent options activity.
Bitcoin hit a record high of $99,830 on Nov. 22, but it has since fallen more than 8% to a one-week low of 91,377.32 on Tuesday.
/jlne.ws/4g3kDpj
Stock Volatility in 2024 Hasn't Been This Low in Five Years; VIX index is low as S&P 500, global stocks trade near peak; ETFs that sell options, 0-DTE help keep volatility at bay
Jan-Patrick Barnert - Bloomberg
A tense US presidential election, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, European governments falling apart: Despite a flurry of risk events, equity volatility is heading for its lowest annual average since 2019.
The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, has averaged 15.5 points in 2024, more in line with quiet periods that preceded the Covid pandemic than with the tumultuous last few years. The S&P 500 Index has surged more than 25% in 2024, posting 51 all-time highs, with stock markets from Asia to Europe mostly up.
/jlne.ws/3ZrDmpn
Wall Street Fear Index Slips. The Market Is Still Calm.
George Glover - Barron's
Wall Street remained calm on Tuesday, even though President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China sparked selloffs in Europe and Asia.
/jlne.ws/3V8vJS5
'UltraShort' Bitcoin ETF Draws Record Inflows as Rally Stalls; The original cryptocurrency is down roughly 7% over three days; Speculative fervor has cooled after a failed run at $100,000
Sidhartha Shukla - Bloomberg
A fund giving investors a way to turbocharge bets against Bitcoin notched its highest daily inflow in a sign that some investors consider the rally unleashed by Donald Trump's election to the White House overdone. The ProShares UltraShort Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (SBIT) aims to deliver twice the inverse daily performance of the token. It recorded a net inflow of $18.8 million on Monday, the largest since its April launch. Investors also piled into the ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF (BITI), which drew in about $23 million over the past two trading sessions, among the highest inflows this year.
/jlne.ws/4fJ6YEk
Flows jump after mutual fund-to-ETF conversions, BofA study shows; Increasing numbers of US managers are making the move offering investors multiple advantages
Steve Johnson - Financial Times
Fund managers that have converted out-of-favour mutual funds into exchange traded funds are typically being rewarded with a jump in inflows, according to research by Bank of America. The trend, which has seen 121 actively managed US funds with total assets of $125bn switch structure in the past five years, offers hope to under-fire active managers that have seen persistent outflows in recent years as investors have increasingly adopted low-cost index-tracking funds.
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'Deja Vu' Jolts Traders Across Markets on Trump Tariff Redux; Traders around the world are bracing for ever more volatility Mexican peso dropped, Asian stocks declined after tariff news
Ruth Carson, Vinicius Andrade, and John Cheng - Bloomberg
Nick Twidale spilled a flat white coffee on his keyboard when headlines on Donald Trump's latest tariff threats caused his phone to blow up with calls. "It's bad deja vu with social media posts all over again, but muscle memory is kicking in," said the 26-year currency trading veteran at AT Global Markets, after the social media posts by Trump on Monday in New York sent the dollar soaring. "The good thing is there's plenty of opportunity to make money here for the next four years under Trump," said Twidale, who managed to profit from short Mexican peso and Australian dollar bets despite the spillage.
/jlne.ws/4fLcINI
Fears of trade wars, volatility, and higher inflation: What analysts are saying about Trump's tariff plans
Theron Mohamed - Business Insider
Analysts warned of a trade war, volatility, steeper inflation, and a flight to safety in markets.
Donald Trump rattled financial markets late Monday by warning he would slap 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian exports to the US until the flow of illicit drugs and illegal migrants into America stops. He also said he'd impose another 10% tariff on imports from China until the drug problem is resolved, in addition to the 60% he proposed during the election campaign.
Analysts said the president-elect's latest threats could presage tariffs on other countries' exports and escalate into a full-scale trade war. They also said it could fuel volatile trading and a flight to haven assets in markets. There's also the threat of stoking inflation, meaning interest rates stay higher for longer.
/jlne.ws/495fHOB
| | | | | | Exchanges | | | Worldscale Adopts ICE's Benchmark EUA Carbon Pricing for its Tanker Freight Rates
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE), a leading global provider of technology and data, today announced that Worldscale Association Ltd (Worldscale), a leading provider of tanker freight rate references, has chosen ICE's European Carbon Allowance (EUA) futures settlement price as the benchmark carbon price for calculating tanker freight rates in 2025. ICE's EUA futures and options market is the most liquid carbon market in the world. Worldscale's tanker freight flat rates represent the cost of a standard ship making a round-trip voyage. The rates are comprised of expenses including bunker prices, port costs and exchange rates. Under the European Union's Emission Trading System (EU ETS), for which ICE's EUA futures market represents the benchmark price, the maritime sector now has to account for the carbon emissions of ships calling in and handling cargoes at EU ports.
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Miami International Holdings Congratulates Markets Media Women in Finance Award Recipients Barbara Comly and Kelli Annequin
MIAX Press Release
Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIH), a technology-driven leader in building and operating regulated financial markets across multiple asset classes, today announced that Barbara Comly, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary, and Kelli Annequin, Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer, were recognized at Markets Media Group's 10th-annual U.S. Women in Finance (WIF) Awards. Ms. Comly received the Excellence in Regulation award, an acknowledgement of her deep expertise in exchange regulation and corporate finance, which have proved invaluable as MIH has expanded the number of exchanges it operates through both regulatory approvals and multiple acquisitions.
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CBOE Stock Soars to All-Time High, Reaching $216.97
Investing.com
In a remarkable display of market confidence, CBOE Holdings Inc . stock has soared to an all-time high, with shares hitting a peak of $216.97. This milestone underscores a period of robust growth for the exchange operator, which has seen its stock value surge by 20.1% over the past year. Investors have been rallying behind CBOE's strong financial performance and strategic initiatives, propelling the stock to new heights and setting a bullish tone for its future prospects. The company's ability to consistently innovate and adapt to the dynamic financial landscape has been a key driver of this impressive 1-year change, marking a period of significant shareholder returns.
/jlne.ws/4eO01Ar
| | | | | | Miscellaneous | | | Quant Olympics Seeks to Find Next Generation of Finance Stars; A global competition hosted by the quantitative hedge fund seeks to find the next generation of finance geniuses - and tests out a new way to beat the markets
Justina Lee and David Ramli - Bloomberg
The strobe lights reset and the applause fades. Three young men walk on stage in a ballroom in Singapore, sporting near-identical haircuts, matching T-shirts and blazers. In the near darkness that contrasts the blazing sun outside, they introduce themselves as the Ruff Boys. For their 10-minute pitch, the Taiwanese university students riff through 12 slides of pure quantitative-trading nerdery: Hierarchical tree. Co-kurtosis. Vector neutral.
/jlne.ws/3Op7dIq
*******Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one. ~Charles Mackay (1841) "Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions," p.3
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