| November 29, 2022 | | | | | Jeff Bergstrom
Editor
John Lothian News | |
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| | | | Lead Stories | | | ETD Volume - October 2022
FIA
This month FIA is releasing the October data on futures and options trading in two formats: the established spreadsheet format and a new format called the FIA ETD Tracker. The ETD Tracker consists of interactive visualizations on the FIA website that allow users to view data on volume and open interest, with filters based on year and month, region and jurisdiction, asset group and type of product. The ETD Tracker also includes visualizations that rank exchanges by total volume in the latest month and year to date as well as open interest in the latest month. Click here to access the ETD Tracker.
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Stock Market 2023 Outlook: 24% Decline As Fed QT Sparks Liquidity Risk
Matthew Fox - Markets Insider
The bear market decline in stocks could spill over into 2023 as the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening is likely to spark liquidity risks in different areas of markets, according to Bank of America's equity strategist Savita Subramanian.
The bank's 2023 outlook includes a base-case projection of flat returns, with the S&P 500 finishing the year at 4,000.
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Stocks haven't priced in an imminent recession. That could increase the risk of recession fears next year, says Goldman Sachs.
Isabel Wang - MarketWatch
A tightening of financial conditions is keeping recession risk high, but financial markets haven't priced in an imminent recession, as risky asset valuations are still well above recessionary levels, said strategists at Goldman Sachs.
A team of strategists led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset-allocation research, forecasts a 39% probability of a U.S. economic slowdown in 2023, but after the recent relief rallies in the stock market, they think risky assets are pricing only an 11% chance of an imminent recession, which increases the risk of further recession scares next year.
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No Interest-Rate Cuts in 2023, Inflation to Remain High: Credit Suisse
George Glover - Markets Insider
Any market expectations that the Federal Reserve and other major central banks will be able to start cutting interest rates in 2023 may be misplaced, according to Credit Suisse, because inflation will remain above official targets.
Access to money will stay tight, and ongoing economic and geopolitical risks mean markets will continue to be volatile, analysts at the Swiss bank said in a 2023 outlook report.
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Watch Volatility Returns to Oil Trading
Bloomberg (VIDEO)
OPEC and its allies are expected to consider deeper supply curbs when they meet this weekend against a backdrop of a faltering global oil market. Su Keenan reports on Bloomberg Television.
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Oil Heads for an 'Incredible' Week With Chance for OPEC Production Cut
Jennifer Sor - Markets Insider
Oil markets could face more volatility soon as there's a "significant chance" of OPEC+ slashing its crude production quota again, despite the looming European Union ban on Russian oil, according to RBC commodities chief Helima Croft.
"It's going to be an incredible week for the oil market," she told CNBC, noting that OPEC will meet on Sunday and the EU's embargo on seaborne imports of Russian oil takes effect on Monday.
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| | | | | | Exchanges | | | Euronext launches gender equality indices
Euronext
Euronext today announced the launch of the Euronext Equileap Gender Equality Eurozone 100[1] and Euronext Equileap Gender Equality France 40[2] indices. These gender equality indices are the first pillars of a broader family of indices addressing challenges around gender balance in the workplace.
In response to the UN's Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) #5 "Gender Equality", these indices have been developed by Euronext leveraging on Equileap's Scorecard and Alarm Bell list to help market participants invest in listed companies committed to improving gender diversity and to respond to the increasing demand for Social thematic investments. The index methodology also applies activity-based exclusions, UNGC compliance and controversial activities exclusion.
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Annual Review of Stock Options Trading Fee Tier Classification
HKEX
Pursuant to the Operational Trading Procedures for Options Trading Exchange Participants of the Stock Exchange (Appendix B11), the trading fee tier levels of the following stock option classes will be changed, effective from 3 January 2023, as a result of the annual review:
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| | | | | | Regulation & Enforcement | | | Complexity of trade surveillance has increased significantly over the past three years, finds report; New study from Acuiti, commissioned by Eventus, found increased regulatory requirements and market volatility to be the main drivers of heightened complexity in trade surveillance.
Wesley Bray - The Trade
A new study from Acuiti has found increasing investment in automation to combat pressure on manual processes. This has been found to be resulting from the complexity of trade surveillance requirements driven by regulatory demands and heightened volatility. Commissioned by Eventus, the report collated views from 71 senior trade surveillance, risk, compliance, technology and trading executives at banks, brokerages and proprietary trading firms.
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| | | | | | Strategy | | | Why the stock market is suffering its worst rate-hike cycle performance ever
William Watts - MarketWatch
Anyone watching the market knows stocks have been hammered since the Federal Reserve began in March what has turned into an aggressive series of interest rate hikes, but strategists at Deutsche Bank say they might be surprised to learn that those rate hikes probably aren't the culprit.
The S&P 500 SPX, -0.09% has seen a return of negative 16.1%, at its current level, since the rate increases began. That's the worst performance for an extended cycle of rate hikes since at least the late 1950s, according to a team led by Chief Strategist Binky Chadha in a Monday note (see chart below).
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Hedge Fund Strategy That Lured $1 Billion This Year Comes to Europe
Sam Potter - Bloomberg
A hedge-fund mimicking ETF that has trounced the S&P 500 this year and lured $1 billion of inflows along the way is taking the trade across the Atlantic -- just as the trend-following strategy starts to cool.
Dynamic Beta investments and iM Global Partner is launching the iMGP DBi Managed Futures Fund, a European take on the US-listed DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (ticker DBMF), according to a Tuesday press release.
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| | | | | | Miscellaneous | | | FTX collapse to be focus of Senate hearing Thursday â here's what to watch for
Robert Schroeder - MarketWatch
The collapse of the crypto exchange FTX will be the subject of a hearing in Congress this week â one of what's likely to be many public inquiries into what went wrong at the entity founded by Sam Bankman-Fried.
The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing Thursday at 10 a.m. featuring testimony from Rostin Behnam, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The panel is headed by Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Michigan Democrat, who has co-sponsored legislation that would give Behnam's agency regulatory power over the crypto industry. Sen. John Boozman of Arkansas, the agriculture committee's top Republican, is also a sponsor.
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