| April 20, 2023 | | | |  | Jeff Bergstrom
Editor
John Lothian News | |
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| | | | Observations & Insight | | | 
Cboe Global Markets' Catherine Clay talks with John Lothian News about all things digital
JohnLothianNews.com
Catherine Clay, EVP, Global Head of Digital and Data Solutions at Cboe Global Markets, spoke with John Lothian News at the FIA International Futures Conference in Boca Raton, FL., about data creativity, Cboe LiveVol, acquisition talent and the pleasures of her new position.
Watch the video »
| | | | | | Lead Stories | | | FX options hint at potential for euro shock
Duncan Wood - Risk.net
After a dramatic six-month surge in the euro, some market participants are bracing for a change of fortune - and citing a swing in the options market as a warning sign.
Euro-bulls have been backing the currency against the US dollar because the European Central Bank is expected to continue hiking, while US rates are widely believed to be at or near their peak. Euro-bears believe the European economy is not robust enough to withstand further increases. The ECB's deposit rate is currently at 3%
/jlne.ws/40ppJ75
It's Been Eerily Calm Out There. Some Traders Wager That Will Soon End.
WSJ
Traders are eyeing bets that would pay out if the recent calm in markets shattered.
Trading in call options tied to the VIX jumping hit the highest level yesterday in at least a month, Cboe Global Markets data show. Such trades would pay out if volatility picked up after slumping in recent weeks.
/jlne.ws/3LjOLk1
Stock Market Crash: Black Swan Event Is Coming, Strategist Says
Jennifer Sor - Markets Insider
Markets are facing a black swan event, and investors have nowhere to run as the rally across markets in 2023 has inflated a dangerous bubble, according to veteran technical analyst Jeff Bierman.
Bierman, chief market technician at TheoTrade, pointed to troubling technical signals in the current market rally that suggest the upward trajectory in asset prices is about to come to an abrupt end.
/jlne.ws/3MYD5Ei
The Treasury Market Prices in Possibility of a US Debt Default in July
Matthew Fox - Markets Insider
The US Treasury market is starting to price in the possibility of a US debt default amid a showdown in Congress, according to a Wednesday note from LPL Research.
The alarm bells in the Treasury market are being heard in short-term Treasury bills and their current yields, with investors seeking a higher rate of return for the risk they're taking on by buying Treasury securities that are scheduled to mature during the summer months that a debt default could happen.
/jlne.ws/3N467T4
Low volatility propping up risk appetite
Jamie McGeever - Reuters
A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.
Stocks may be treading water as investors digest a mixed flow of U.S. earnings and red hot UK inflation is pushing up global bond yields, but investors in Asia with a glass half full outlook on Thursday might want to latch on Wall Street's volatility.
Or rather, lack of it.
The VIX index (.VIX), also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, fell on Wednesday to its lowest point since November 2021, and is below the average of the last 5, 10, 15 and 20 years.
/jlne.ws/3MWXbPh
JPMorgan Survey: the US Economy Is Barrelling Towards a Recession
Morgan Chittum - Markets Insider
Investors are preparing for a recession and more interest rate hikes if inflation levels continue to stay high, according to JPMorgan.
Based on its survey of investors, the bank found that they expect monetary and credit tightening, along with profit-margin compression, will push the economy into a recession. Almost 90% of respondents see a recession materializing by the first quarter of 2024.
/jlne.ws/3LfgbY2
| | | | | | Exchanges | | | Deribit sets up crypto exchange battle with push into free trading; World's largest crypto options market to waive fees for spot trading in popular tokens
Nikou Asgari - Financial Times
Crypto derivatives exchange Deribit is launching free trading of bitcoin and other tokens, setting up a fresh price war among digital asset exchanges as they seek to re-emerge after a bruising year for the industry. The Panama-based group, the world's biggest crypto options exchange, will begin direct trading in three of the most popular cryptocurrency pairs from next week and waive the fees.
/jlne.ws/3LhYPdl
MIAX Exchange Group - Options And Equities Markets
Press Release
As previously announced in the March 20, 2023 and March 24, 2023 alerts, MIAX is launching a new website. The MIAX Options, MIAX Pearl Options, MIAX Emerald Options and MIAX Pearl Equities Exchanges have scheduled a new launch date of miaxglobal.com on April 22, 2023.
/jlne.ws/3H0U6Ks
| | | | | | Strategy | | | The VIX is telling stock-market investors it's dangerous to bet on Fed interest-rate cuts this year
William Watts - MarketWatch via Morningstar
History shows that falling stock-market volatility doesn't gibe with expectations for rate cuts, one Wall Street analyst says
Investors once again penciling in a pivot to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve aren't getting any backup from a closely watched gauge of expected stock-market volatility, one Wall Street analyst warned Wednesday.
/jlne.ws/3H0pxVh
Stock market refuses to pick a direction as VIX falls to lowest since November 2021
William Watts - MarketWatch
Bulls and bears fought to another draw Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq barely budging as the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a slight decline.
Investors weighed another batch of corporate earnings in choppy trade. The Cboe Volatiliy Index, a measure of expected volatility for the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, was on track to close at 16.39, which would be its lowest since Nov. 16, 2021.
/jlne.ws/3KOptca
Bears are hibernating now, but they'll wake up hungry if the S&P 500 can't break 4200 soon
Lawrence G. McMillan - MarketWatch
The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index SPX, -0.92%, has continued to rise slowly this month, but the overhead resistance at or just below 4200 has proven to be formidable. There is another resistance level, at 4300.
The bears seem to be timid at the moment, but if the market can't break through 4200, the bears will surely gain some strength. Below current levels, there is support in the 4050-4070 area, and further support near 3970. But a decline below 3950 would be negative and probably bring in some serious selling.
/jlne.ws/3LjOeP3
VIX Seasonality
Cboe (Video)
Scott Bauer @cboesib covers seasonal $VIX trends in today's #Vol411. #options #markets
/jlne.ws/3URnhoS
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