| February 08, 2022 | | | |  | Jeff Bergstrom
Editor
John Lothian News | |
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| | | | Lead Stories | | | JPMorgan Strategists See Sure-Fire Sign It's Time to Buy Stocks
Jan-Patrick Barnert - Bloomberg
JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists have identified what they say is a near bulletproof indicator to strengthen their argument that stock markets are poised to rally.
The buy signal is triggered when the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rises by more than 50% of its 1-month moving average, which it last did Jan. 25, according to the strategists led by Mislav Matejka. The indicator has proven 100% accurate outside of recessions over the last three decades.
/jlne.ws/35YVMEB
Investors Hedging This Much Usually Precedes U.S. Stock Gains
Joanna Ossinger - Bloomberg
Hedging on U.S. stocks has risen to the highest level in almost two years, and reached a point that usually precedes equity gains, according to Sundial Capital Research.
A gauge of the extent to which investors seek protection via methods like raising cash or buying put options has risen to the highest level since April 2020, near the peak of pandemic-fueled uncertainty, Sundial's Jason Goepfert wrote in a note Monday. Put-buying has been elevated among both small and large traders, he said.
/jlne.ws/3spwk2G
Stocks Will Stay Volatile, Fed Rate Hikes Could Hit Economy: El-Erian
Theron Mohamed - Business Insider
The Federal Reserve risks choking the US economy if it withdraws support too quickly, Mohamed El-Erian warned in a CNBC interview this week. Allianz's chief economic adviser also predicted US stocks would remain volatile, serving up bargains for opportunistic investors.
"I question whether the economy can take seven rate hikes with quantitative tightening on top of that," El-Erian said, referring to Bank of America's forecast of seven interest-rate increases this year, and the Fed's plan to taper its bond purchases and shrink its balance sheet.
/jlne.ws/3JarGfF
| | | | | | Exchanges | | | Cboe Completes MATCHNow Technology Migration and Launches its First New Canadian Offering
Cboe Global Markets
MATCHNow successfully migrated to Cboe technology on February 1, 2022, marking completion of a year-long integration effort; Cboe BIDS Canada is first new offering to launch post-migration; Technology integration follows Cboe's acquisition of MATCHNow in August 2020 and will serve as the foundation to help Cboe expand in Canada
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Cboe: CBOE), a leading provider of global market infrastructure and tradable products, today announced it successfully migrated MATCHNow to Cboe technology on February 1, 2022. Along with this technology migration, Cboe has launched Cboe BIDS Canada, bringing a new and enhanced block-trading offering to the Canadian equities market.
/jlne.ws/3LgN7xj
Eurex sees record volumes in euro clearing in January; Average daily cleared volumes in OTC swaps more than doubled to EUR 40 billion y-o-y; Eurex overall traded contracts in January +3 percent y-o-y
Eurex
OTC Clearing at Eurex continued its positive trend in January. Average daily cleared volumes in OTC interest rate derivatives grew to a record level of EUR 276 billion, which translates to a total of EUR 5.8 trillion. Overall notional outstanding grew to a record volume of EUR 24.560 billion at the end of January, despite several compression runs during the last months. Market share in notional outstanding stood at 22 percent in January. Looking at specific products, Interest Rate Swaps and Overnight Index Swaps business together more than doubled in terms of average daily cleared volumes - from EUR 19.0 billion to EUR 40.3 billion - and by almost 50 percent in terms of notional outstanding - from EUR 9.1 trillion to EUR 13.4 trillion.
/jlne.ws/339hZ1G
Ethereum's Daily Options Volume Matches Bitcoin's for the First Time at $1.1b
Kingsley Alo - The Tokenist
According to on-chain data, Ethereum's daily options trading volume has equaled Bitcoin for the first time. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap saw its options trade volume surpass all-time highs above the $1.1 billion mark. The increase in options volume occurred even as spot volumes remained muted amidst the slump in the price for the digital asset.
Ether's options volume on Deribit, the biggest crypto options exchange, rose to $5.4 million in January, a 36% increase from December. Bitcoin's options volume also grew by 10% to $498,000. This sees Ethereum add another feather to its cap after outperforming Bitcoin last year and becoming the platform with the highest asset flow globally.
/jlne.ws/3stLVy0
| | | | | | Regulation & Enforcement | | | CFTC Charges Florida-Based Entities and Individuals with Multi-Million Dollar Futures and Forex Fraud
CFTC
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced today that it has filed a civil enforcement action in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida against The W Trade Group LLC, Larry Ramos Mendoza of Miami, Florida, and Joseph Carvajales also of Miami, Florida, charging them with fraud and misappropriation of over $19 million involving futures, forex and options.
/jlne.ws/34iHqP3
US Treasury Clearing Survey
ISDA
ISDA is conducting a survey of members and non-members to inform its position on ongoing efforts to incentivize and/or potentially require additional clearing of US Treasury (UST) securities and repos. ISDA is specifically looking for feedback on the legal, operational, regulatory (including market regulation and capital implications) and policy issues associated with UST clearing, with a focus on client clearing and how reforms in this market would impact the derivatives markets. We are also very interested in potential solutions to these issues and associated costs.
/jlne.ws/3JgEb9z
| | | | | | Miscellaneous | | | Watch Retail Traders Take Back Seat Amid Volatility
Bloomberg (VIDEO)
The same group that artificially pumped meme stocks to all-time highs are now dealing with extreme market volatility. TradeZero America Co-Founder Dan Pipitone explains why we're seeing less "memeification" in markets. (Source: Bloomberg)
/jlne.ws/3oV4mLl
Hedge Funds and the Art of 'Phony Happiness'
Marc Rubinstein - Bloomberg
Hedge funds have long been criticized for underperforming the bull market in stocks for the past decade. But as markets get more challenging and interest rates climb, it's their risk-management skills - not their performance record - that could underpin an upturn in the industry's fortunes. That's because their biggest customers - public pension funds and endowments - place a high premium on loss mitigation, perhaps a higher premium than they do on returns.
These entities, which sit on trillions of dollars of capital, employ a variety of strategies to minimize their risk of loss, each of which dovetails with how the hedge fund industry is evolving.
/jlne.ws/3LicLlm
IRS Retreats From Facial Recognition to Verify Taxpayers' Identities
Richard Rubin and Laura Saunders - WSJ
The Internal Revenue Service is scrapping its use of a private facial-recognition system to authenticate taxpayers' identities for online accounts, the agency said Monday after criticism from lawmakers in both parties over privacy concerns.
"Everyone should feel comfortable with how their personal information is secured, and we are quickly pursuing short-term options that do not involve facial recognition," IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig said in a statement on Monday.
/jlne.ws/3sqxzhV
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