| November 01, 2024 | | | |  | Jeff Bergstrom
Editor
John Lothian News | |
|
| | | | Observations & Insight | | | The biggest U.S. futures exchange by volume yesterday was ForecastEx. Volume is a traditional measure of size and ForecastEx traded 32.815 million pairs or contracts yesterday on 108.5 thousand trades. It has been quite the week for the event prediction exchange as on Tuesday volume was 31K trades with 10.914 million pairs/contracts traded. Wednesday saw 67.33K trades and 21.820 million pairs/contracts traded. For the record, ForecastEx's volume is based on $1 trades, not the huge notional value of the CME Group or other exchange's contracts, but based on pure volume, it was the largest U.S. futures exchange yesterday.
On Wednesday, I interviewed Thomas Peterffy, the founder, chairman and CEO of Interactive Brokers and the man who came up with the idea for ForecastEx. I wanted to know more about the exchange, the contracts and why Peterffy was doing this. You will find out in the interview, which you can see HERE.
Crypto.com announced its acquisition of Watchdog Capital, LLC, an SEC-registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, allowing it to offer equities and equity options to U.S. traders. CEO Kris Marszalek emphasized Crypto.com's commitment to integrating traditional and digital finance responsibly under proper regulatory frameworks. This acquisition will enhance Crypto.com's services, enabling U.S. users to engage with stocks and options. This move follows other moves, such as launching regulated crypto derivatives and global retail services. ~ JJL
++++
Thomas Peterffy on ForecastEx: Building a Buy-Only Market to Transform Event Trading and Crowd-Based Insights
JohnLothianNews.com
Thomas Peterffy, founder of Interactive Brokers, shares insights into his latest venture, ForecastEx, an innovative platform designed to create a new market for event-based contracts in an interview with John Lothian News. ForecastEX provides traders a unique "buy-only" model where participants take yes or no positions on the probability of future events, challenging traditional speculation while aiming to yield broader societal insights.
Watch the video »
++++
From Punch Cards to Crypto: One Man's Journey Through Wall Street's Tech Revolution
JohnLothianNews.com
John Rapa never imagined his part-time college job would lead to a front-row seat for Wall Street's technological transformation. But over five decades, he's witnessed the industry's evolution from paper tickets to blockchain - and he's still grappling with how to explain Bitcoin to his grandparents.
Watch the video »
| | | | | | Lead Stories | | | Options markets brace for US election Forex risk with volatility spike
Frank DeMatteo - Investing.com
Options markets indicated a sharp increase in implied volatility, particularly as the tenor of the options included the upcoming U.S. election.
Currencies such as the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Mexican Peso (MXN), and South Korean Won (KRW) experienced solid increases in volatility.
/jlne.ws/4f6iGZb
Is The High VIX Just Pre-Election Jitters, Or Is It Saying Something?
Michael James McDonald - Seeking Alpha
Even though market volatility is currently low, the VIX continues to register over 20, which means options traders are expecting it to dramatically increase. Are they expecting large, post-election price gyrations, or do they simply think prices are headed lower? In any event, a high VIX during periods of low market volatility usually forecasts higher prices for stocks.
We will present you with some original research we did, which explores this situation in greater detail.
/jlne.ws/3AqHcVY
Hedge funds search for trades in dead-heat US election
Carolina Mandl and Davide Barbuscia - Reuters
Hedge funds and other investors are searching for trades that profit from a win by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, but also offer limited downside in the event of a victory by Vice President Kamala Harris.
As the nearly deadlocked race nears, some are looking for so-called "asymmetric trades" involving bitcoin or the yuan, assets which could yield big profits if Trump wins but would not cause big losses if the wagers are wrong.
/jlne.ws/3YR4uxO
Investors step up bets that US election will trigger market volatility; Jitters sweep through bond and currency markets before presidential vote
Will Schmitt and Nicholas Megaw - Financial Times
Investors have been raising their bets that next week's US presidential election will trigger sharp price swings in bond and currency markets.
The Ice BofA Move index, a closely watched gauge for future moves in the Treasury market, is up almost 40 per cent in October and hit its highest level in more than a year earlier this week.
/jlne.ws/3Cdl420
Low-volatility ETFs lose favour as investors jump to buffered peers; Despite poor returns in recent years, analysts say people could be missing out on their long-term investment potential
Steve Johnson - Financial Times
Low- and minimum-volatility funds are haemorrhaging money as performance continues to disappoint and investors shift to a newer, shinier way of managing risk in equity markets.
Investors have pulled $43.8bn from US-listed low-volatility exchange traded funds since February 2020, according to data from State Street Global Advisors, with just one month of positive flows in the past 22.
/jlne.ws/48BbGRF
Treasury market volatility gauge hits fresh high for the year
Jamie Chisholm - MarketWatch
The CBOE VIX index, a measure of expected S&P 500 volatility known as Wall Street's fear gauge, is near a three week high as traders show nerves ahead of today's jobs report, Tuesday's election and Wednesday's Fed decision.
But it's not just equity investors that are rattled.
/jlne.ws/4fqGHdm
Nasdaq and Cboe Challenge SEC Over New Stock Trading Rule; Exchanges say changes could affect pricing and hurt investors; US regulator had passed new rule altering economics of trading
Katherine Doherty and Lydia Beyoud - Bloomberg
Nasdaq Inc. and Cboe Global Markets Inc., two of the biggest stock exchanges, challenged a new US Securities and Exchange Commission rule that changes the economic structure of how stocks trade. The firms asked a court to review the SEC's recently finalized national market structure regulation, also known as Reg-NMS, according to a petition, which they said was lodged with a United States appeals court in Washington.
/jlne.ws/4fvCoh1
Bitcoin Rally Masks Bleaker Picture in the Crypto World
Philip Lagerkranser and Anna Irrera - Bloomberg
Beyond Bitcoin's rally toward another all-time high and renewed ETF inflows, a bleaker picture of crypto is emerging, one where waning interest in once-hot assets prompts some companies to slash jobs. On Wednesday, crypto exchange Kraken announced job cuts a person familiar with the matter said amounts to 15% of workers, while rival Coinbase Inc. reported earnings that missed estimates. Software developer Consensys is among other digital-asset firms that recently started trimming jobs.
/jlne.ws/3UvRCKA
| | | | | | Exchanges | | | Cboe beats third-quarter profit estimates on strong hedging activity
Pritam Biswas and Laura Matthews - Reuters
Cboe Global Markets (CBOE.Z), opens new tab reported better than expected third-quarter profit on Friday, helped by strong options trading as investors actively hedged against geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
A robust equities market, shifts in the U.S. Federal Reserve's key policy rates and the potential economic fallout from the Middle East conflict have investors and portfolio managers on edge, prompting them to hedge their positions.
/jlne.ws/3YLk7ql
Cboe Global Markets Reports Results for Third Quarter 2024
Cboe
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Cboe: CBOE) today reported financial results for the third quarter of 2024. "In the third quarter, Cboe reported strong diluted EPS of $2.07, record net revenue of $532.0 million and record adjusted diluted EPS1 of $2.22, highlighting the solid progress we continued to make in sharpening our strategic focus," said Fredric Tomczyk, Cboe Global Markets Chief Executive Officer. "Through the first three quarters of the year, Cboe has grown net revenue by 9%, diluted EPS by 4%, and adjusted diluted EPS1 by 14%. The broad-based contribution speaks to the complementary nature of Cboe's ecosystem with Derivatives net revenue up 11%, Cash and Spot Markets up 9% and Data and Access Solutions up 6% on a year-to-date basis. I am excited as we move forward as an organization with a refined strategic framework that will help ensure we are well-aligned with secular market trends to drive growth and opportunity in the years ahead."
/jlne.ws/4fq9Rcy
NYSE-parent ICE's profit meets estimates as strong trading offsets higher expenses
Jaiveer Shekhawat and Laura Matthews - Reuters
Intercontinental Exchange reported third-quarter profit in line with expectations on Thursday, as strong trading volumes in the energy and options segments helped offset higher expenses for the New York Stock Exchange parent. Conflict in the Middle East and diverging views of the interest rate trajectory have bumped up volatility in the global markets, prompting traders to actively adjust their portfolios to capitalize on fluctuating prices and avoid risks. Exchanges typically benefit from market turmoil, which tends to boost overall trading volumes. ICE's energy trading volumes rose 23% in the third quarter, with gains across segments including oil, gasoil as well as other crude and refined products. Natural gas average daily volumes increased 33%.
/jlne.ws/48MSpNv
abrdn Investments Becomes New ETF Issuer at SIX Swiss Exchange
BME-X
Today, SIX welcomes abrdn Investments as its latest issuer of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) with their new real estate product. This addition brings the total number of ETF at SIX Swiss Exchange to 1,845 across 28 issuers. The newly listed ETF "abrdn Future Real Estate UCITS ETF USD Acc ETF Share Class" offers institutional and private investors direct access to developed global real estate markets. This actively managed ETF leverages insights from abrdn Investments' Global Real Estate Research team, allowing for exposure to their selected real estate strategies. With its first active ETF, abrdn Investments enters the European market, further expanding its range of investment solutions.
/jlne.ws/4f6aBnf
| | | | | | Regulation & Enforcement | | | Crypto.com Announces Acquisition of SEC Registered Broker-Dealer Watchdog Capital, LLC; SEC Registered Broker-Dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC Licensed to Offer Equities and Equity Options for Traders in the U.S.
Press release
Crypto.com announced today the acquisition of a SEC registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, Watchdog Capital, LLC. This acquisition will enable Crypto.com's new subsidiary to offer equities and equity options, among other things, to eligible traders in the U.S. "We are aggressively working towards integrating traditional financial tools with digital financial capabilities and are doing so while maintaining our focus on building responsibly with the necessary licenses and registrations to operate as the industry's leader." said Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com. "We are extremely confident in the future of the U.S. market as we see growing bipartisan support for our industry. This acquisition furthers the capabilities of the Crypto.com family of companies through a fully registered broker dealer."
/jlne.ws/40wDRiH
SEC Charges Philadelphia-Area Resident with Insider Trading
SEC
The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Willow Grove, Pennsylvania resident Carlos Sacanell with insider trading ahead of an announcement that CVS Health Corporation, Inc. had agreed to acquire Oak Street Health, Inc. According to the SEC's complaint, Sacanell was in a long-term relationship with a senior executive at Oak Street, who shared with Sacanell material nonpublic information about the CVS/Oak Street transaction in confidence. Sacanell allegedly purchased Oak Street stock and call options based on that information, resulting in him owning more Oak Street call options than any other retail investor and the fifth most overall. The complaint alleges that after the deal was publicly announced, Sacanell's trading resulted in approximately $617,000 in illegal profits.
/jlne.ws/3NMxPmu
| | | | | | Strategy | | | The U.S. election need not be scary. History shows this is the way to trade it, says Citi.; The S&P 500 looks well set for the rest of the year but there's also a way to gain from short-term volatility
Jamie Chisholm - MarketWatch
You can feel the nerves. Just the next five trading sessions will see the monthly U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, the U.S. election, and a Federal Reserve policy decision. Investors have also become wary about some mega-tech company valuations.
The anxiety could be seen in Thursday's 1.9% drop for the S&P 500, which ensured the benchmark stock index broke a five month winning streak. Meanwhile, the CBOE VIX, a measure of expected stock market volatility, is 22.5 and higher than the front-month VIX future at 20.6.
/jlne.ws/3YY23tn
Should you ever buy a stock index at a record high?; It feels so wrong, but investors (me included) needn't worry so much
Stuart Kirk - Financial Times
While some went gaga this week over the Budget bus fare cap and whether the word "supporters" included an apostrophe, the Lancet published a new Countdown report on health and climate change. It couldn't be seriouser.
Ten of 15 indicators of hazards, exposures or impacts hit record levels last year. For example, global data show that almost half the earth's land surface suffered at least one month of extreme drought - up from 15 per cent in the 1980s.
/jlne.ws/3NMgYAp
| | | | |  | | | | JLN Options is sponsored by: | | | | | |  |  |  |  |  | | | | | |  |  | | |
|
|
| | | |
| | | | John Lothian News (JLN) is the news division of John J. Lothian & Company, Inc. (JJLCO). The online media and financial services firm is staffed by derivatives industry, journalism and technology professionals. | | | | | | | John Lothian News Editorial Staff: | | | John Lothian
Publisher | | | Sarah Rudolph
Editor-in-Chief
| | | Jeff Bergstrom
Editor
| | |
|
|
| |
Disclaimer: All John Lothian Newsletters, JohnLothianNews.com, MarketsWiki.com and MarketsReformWiki.com are products of John Lothian News, a division of John J. Lothian & Company, Inc. The opinions expressed in all John J. Lothian & Company, Inc. publications are strictly those of their respective editors. They are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Security futures are not suitable for all customers. Futures and options trading involve risk. Past results are no indication of future performance. Nothing on any John J. Lothian & Company site should be considered an endorsement by any sponsor of any website or newsletter content.
© 2023 John J. Lothian & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. |
|
|
