 | | | | | | | | November 14, 2024 | | | |  | Jeff Bergstrom
Editor
John Lothian News | |
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| | | | Lead Stories | | | Trader Bets on 75-Basis-Point ECB Cut Next Month for Tenfold Win; Wager uses options to target ECB cutting deposit rate to 2.5%; Bet seeks payout of 10 times the EUR625,000 premium paid
James Hirai - Bloomberg
A trader is betting the European Central Bank will deliver a jumbo interest-rate cut next month, a scenario becoming more plausible after Donald Trump's party won control of both chambers of the US Congress. The wager, using options on rate futures, will pay out EUR6.25 million ($6.6 million) - 10 times the initial outlay - if policymakers reduce the deposit rate by a hefty 75 basis points or by half a percentage point with a bias for a further cut in January, according to traders familiar with the transaction.
/jlne.ws/4fMU4Vn
Growth of U.S. Equities Volumes and Rise of Retail
Cboe
U.S. equities market share dynamics have evolved significantly in the last several years. New exchanges and market participants - especially retail participants - entered the landscape, and innovative product offerings were launched. As a result, trading outcomes for retail participants have improved. In its latest analysis series, Cboe's North American Equities Execution Consulting team explores how the rise of retail trading has contributed to growth in U.S. equities volumes, especially in subdollar securities.
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Exchange-traded fund flows smash full-year record; The US$1.4 trillion pumped into global ETFs in the first 10 months of the year surpasses the US$1.33 trillion racked up in all of 2021
Steve Johnson - Financial Times
Investors have poured record sums into exchange-traded funds this year, even before a buying spree that was ignited by the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. President. As of October 31, global net flows into the burgeoning ETF industry had hit US$1.4 trillion, according to data from BlackRock Inc., eclipsing 2021's full-year record of US$1.33 trillion.
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U.S. ETF Inflows Hit $4.7B Over 6 Days as Bitcoin Becomes 7th-Largest Asset in the World; Bitcoin dominance continues its uptrend and hits new highs as ETF inflows soar.
James Van Straten - CoinDesk
Bitcoin (BTC) is on a roll. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has just become the seventh-largest asset by market cap on the planet, overtaking oil giant Saudi Aramco. Its dominance over the crypto industry set a high of 61.38% and the price hit a record of over $93,000 on Wednesday. A large part of the recent success is due to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance during the election campaign. As of today, the Republicans won the House, completing the trifecta and boding well for cryptocurrency prices due to favorable regulation.
/jlne.ws/3Z7nPuo
JPMorgan Sets Up Derivatives Development Unit in New India Hub; Bank to hire five people for development, support, sales India initiative adds to US bank's Hong Kong, London capacity
Preeti Singh and Saikat Das - Bloomberg
JPMorgan Chase & Co., in a first for any global bank, has set up a unit to develop derivative products in India's newest international hub, according to people familiar with the matter. The US bank will pitch the products to clients in Asia-Pacific and Europe, in addition to providing support for the offerings developed from the Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, or GIFT City, said the people who asked not to be identified citing private information. It plans to hire five people in the next 12 months to lead the effort in the hub, the people added.
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| | | | | | Exchanges | | | CBOE's SWOT analysis: options giant navigates market volatility
Investing.com
CBOE Global Markets, Inc., a leading player in the options and derivatives market, has been navigating a complex financial landscape marked by shifting market dynamics and geopolitical uncertainties. As the company approaches the end of fiscal year 2024, analysts are closely examining its performance, strategies, and future prospects.
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| | | | | | Regulation & Enforcement | | | Polymarket CEO's Home Is Raided by FBI; "This is obvious political retribution," said a Polymarket spokesperson. Bloomberg reported that DOJ is investigating the company for letting U.S. users access the site.
Nick Baker, Nikhilesh De - CoinDesk
The prediction market was a breakout success in the U.S. presidential election, a platform where billions of dollars worth of bets were placed on the outcome. Polymarket traders viewed Donald Trump as the likely winner, as indeed he was. The raid was confirmed by a Polymarket spokesperson. The New York Post and Axios reported the news earlier. According to the Post, the feds took Coplan's phone and other electronic devices. By all accounts, Coplan has not been arrested or charged with any wrongdoing.
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****** Here is the Reuters version of this story.~JJL
| | | | | | Strategy | | | Markets are ripping past all-time highs after Donald Trump's electoral victory. Doomsday investors aren't convinced.
Bradley Saacks - Business Insider
The first Donald Trump administration included policy announcements via Twitter, a pandemic, and protectionist tariffs that agitated the country's largest trade partner.
His second term could be even more "radical" for markets, according to Jonathan Webb, an executive at portfolio technology company C8 Technologies and the former head of FX strategy at Jefferies.
/jlne.ws/3OaRbBS
Where crypto ETFs can go next during a second Trump term
Frances Yue - MarketWatch
Crypto investors have been cheerful this week, as bitcoin has kept refreshing all-time highs and market participants are hopeful that the digital-asset sector will benefit from a more friendly regulatory environment after President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
I caught up with Martin Leinweber, director of digital-asset research and strategy at MarketVector Indexes, who noted that under a Trump presidency, crypto investors in the U.S. could potentially see more exchange-traded funds investing in a basket of different digital assets - which could further drive crypto adoption.
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| | | | | | Miscellaneous | | | How markets might be wrong about Trump; Plus the long and winding road of disinflation
Robert Armstrong and Aiden Reiter - Financial Times
The consensus view of what Trump means for markets is too easy, smells of political bias and reads too much into the recent rally. It may be right, but we should be alert to the possibility it isn't.
The consensus is that Trump means higher growth, higher deficits, higher inflation, higher stock prices and higher bond yields. Natural Trump haters, like the 23 Nobel Laureates in economics who signed a letter endorsing Kamala Harris's policies over Trump's, emphasise the deficit and inflation side. Trump lovers emphasise the growth side. Scott Bessent, angling for a big job in the administration, argued in The Wall Street Journal that the election market rally proved the growth interpretation correct - clearing the way for critics to use his own words to argue that the next big correction will be Trump's fault, which it almost certainly won't be. Both sides of the consensus could be wrong.
/jlne.ws/4hRhef1
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