| | | | | | | | November 06, 2024 | | | | | Jeff Bergstrom
Editor
John Lothian News | |
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| | | | Observations & Insight | | | It is with deep sadness that I report that Gareth Roberts passed away suddenly last Friday. He was head of sales at AMT Futures Ltd. Roberts career saw him also serve as head of the London office and EMEA head of sales at AP Capital/Mamoru, head of clearing strategy at ED&F Man Capital Markets, executive director in futures & options and OTC Clearing sales at J.P. Morgan, and head of sales at GNI Limited. He left an indelible mark on our industry and touched the lives of countless colleagues and clients. Our thoughts are with Gareth's family, friends, and everyone who had the privilege of working with him. Roberts' colleague James Proudlock originally shared his passing on LinkedIn. ~JJL
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The Crypto Skeptic Who Went Down the Rabbit Hole
JohnLothianNews.com
On a crisp autumn morning in Brooklyn, Zeke Faux sat in his home office in front of a Zoom virtual background featuring a mocked up gold cryptocurrency coin with Sam Bankman-Fried's profile on it and inscribed with a Latin phrase Faux described as an Easter Egg that means "It is worth nothing." The Bloomberg investigative reporter had just released the paperback version of his first book, "Number Go Up," a searing exposé of the cryptocurrency world that has already made waves in financial circles. A chapter is included in the paperback edition that contains new information, since the hardback edition was released just before Bankman-Fried went on trial. But Faux's journey into the heart of crypto mania wasn't one he initially sought out.
Watch the video »
| | | | | | Lead Stories | | | Wall Street Fear Index Plummets as Trump Win Crushes Market Volatility
George Glover - Barron's
Wall Street's fear index was tumbling Wednesday, as Donald Trump's clear win in the U.S. election soothed investors' fears after months of uncertainty.
The Cboe Volatility Index-a widely followed Wall Street fear gauge that tracks S&P 500 options and trades under the ticker VIX-tumbled 22% to just under 16. Any reading below 20 is generally seen as a sign of market stability.
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Wall Street girds for Trump 2.0: Tariffs, tax cuts and volatility
Lewis Krauskopf - Reuters
With Donald Trump heading back to the White House, Wall Street is anticipating the potential for lower taxes, deregulation and a U.S. president who is quick to sound off on everything from the stock market to the dollar.
Trump made tariffs and tax cuts key elements of his pitch to voters, many of whom said the economy was the biggest issue of the election. Another important plank of his platform is expected to be deregulation in areas ranging from the banking industry to cryptocurrencies.
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How Investors Are Reacting to Trump's Win; Equity indexes soar, US yields and dollar rise after election; 'Trump trade' is in play, keying off tax-cut, tariff agenda
Alexandra Semenova - Bloomberg
A risk-on frenzy enveloped financial assets Wednesday as Donald Trump clinched a second term as US president, decisively winning what had been seen as a neck-and-neck race against Vice President Kamala Harris.
US stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 Index soaring 2.1% around 12:30 p.m. in New York, and riskier parts of the equities market posting the biggest gains. The Russell 2000 Index, a benchmark for small-cap shares, jumped 4.9%. The VIX Index of stock-market volatility fell to around 16, declining from the elevated levels it touched in the days leading up to the vote.
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Trump 2.0 Evokes Memory of Social Media Flood and Market Swings; Traders brace for market-moving Trump posts on social media; Republican nominee is on the cusp of winning the White House
Sagarika Jaisinghani, Abhishek Vishnoi, and Neil Campling - Bloomberg
As Republican nominee Donald Trump inches closer to claiming the White House, traders across the world are once again bracing for market-moving posts on social media that characterized his first term as president.
Trump has been projected as the winner across pivotal battleground states with his party set to control the Senate. Financial markets have swung in expectation of his likely triumph, with S&P 500 futures surging 2.2% and the dollar hitting a one-year high.
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Volatility, higher rates, and surging bitcoin. Here's what analysts are saying about Trump's victory.
Will Martin - Business Insider
Donald Trump's victory is set to herald a new era of higher inflation, tighter monetary policy, and surging cryptocurrencies, analysts said in initial reactions to the presidential election result.
The economic impact of Trump's second term is likely to be volatile, said Lindsay James, investment strategist at UK-based Quilter Investments.
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Euro Parity in Play as Trump Win Spurs Biggest Drop Since 2016; ABN Amro, ING see one euro buying one dollar in coming months; Options traders boosted euro-dollar parity bets pre-election
Alice Atkins, Vassilis Karamanis, and Greg Ritchie - Bloomberg
Currency traders are turning against the euro as Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential race boosted the chance of aggressive European interest-rate cuts, driving the common currency toward parity with the dollar. The euro tumbled as much as 2.1% on Tuesday, poised for its biggest decline since 2016. ABN Amro Bank NV, ING Groep NV and Manulife warn the rout will extend over the coming months to the level where one euro buys one dollar. Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG anticipate the currency will slide to $1.03 and $1.05, respectively, by year-end.
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| | | | | | Exchanges | | | CME customers criticise futures exchange after it wins approval to also act as broker; Derivatives traders warn of potential 'conflicts of interest' as Chicago group gains licence
Nikou Asgari in London and Jennifer Hughes in New York - Financial Times
Customers of CME Group have strongly criticised the US futures exchange after it was given the green light to become one of their main competitors. Banks and small brokers have sharply criticised the Chicago group after it won approval last week to also act as a futures broker - blurring the traditional dividing line between operating an exchange and being a member of it. "[It] raises serious concerns about market regulation and systemic risk," said Walt Lukken, chief executive of the Futures Industry Association. CME is the world's largest derivatives exchange, handling an average of 28.3mn contracts a day during the third quarter on futures tied to interest rates, Treasuries, energy and equities.
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Forex Trading at Cboe Falls Below $45 Billion Daily Mark
Damian Chmiel - Finance Magnates
Cboe Global Markets reported a significant decline in global foreign exchange (Forex) trading volumes for October, while experiencing substantial growth in its Asian operations, highlighting shifting market dynamics across regions.
Cboe FX Trading Volumes Drop 7.4%, While Asian Markets Surge
Average daily volume (ADV) in Cboe's global FX segment fell to $44.4 billion in October, marking a 7.4% decrease from the $47.9 billion recorded in the same month last year. The decline was even more pronounced when compared to September 2024, showing a 7.7% month-over-month drop from $48.1 billion.
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Cboe Global Markets Reports Trading Volume for October 2024
Cboe
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Cboe: CBOE), the world's leading derivatives and securities exchange network, today reported October monthly trading volume statistics across its global business lines. The data sheet "Cboe Global Markets Monthly Volume & RPC/Net Revenue Capture Report" contains an overview of certain October trading statistics and market share by business segment, volume in select index products, and RPC/net capture, which is reported on a one-month lag, across business lines.
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MIAX Options Exchange - MIAX Product Feed Will Stop Disseminating The VSPIKES Index Cash Value On Monday, November 11, 2024
MIAX
The MIAX Options Exchange will stop disseminating the VSPIKES Index cash value (symbol: VSPKE) on the MIAX Product Feed (MPF) on Monday, November 11, 2024. For more information, please contact ProprietaryProducts@miaxglobal.com.
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SGX Group Wins Exchange of the Year at 2024 Regulation Asia Awards
Editors - Regulation Asia
Singapore Exchange (SGX Group) has once again been awarded Exchange of the Year at the 7th Regulation Asia Awards for Excellence 2024, celebrated in person on 4 November 2024, in recognition of its continued leadership in market expansion, technological innovation, and commitment to sustainability across Asia's financial markets. Presented within the Market Infrastructure category, the Exchange of the Year award recognises exchanges that demonstrate exceptional leadership, competitive strengths, and a steadfast commitment to sustainability. This category celebrates innovation, transparency, market integrity, and the ability to provide market participants with a secure trading environment.
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Tradeweb Reports October 2024 Total Trading Volume of $54.7 Trillion and Average Daily Volume of $2.35 Trillion
Tradeweb Markets
Tradeweb Markets Inc. (Nasdaq: TW), a leading, global operator of electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities and money markets, today reported total trading volume for the month of October 2024 of $54.7 trillion (tn)[1]. Average daily volume (ADV) for the month was $2.35tn, an increase of 34.1 percent (%) year-over-year (YoY). Excluding the impact of the ICD acquisition, which closed on August 1, 2024, total ADV for the month of October was up 18.4% YoY.
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TP ICAP Trading Update for the nine months ended 30 September 2024
TP ICAP
Third quarter performance in constant currency, unless in brackets, which denotes reported currency. Record Group revenue in the third quarter of ÃGBP557m, up 10% (+9% in reported currency). Global Broking revenue increased 9% (+8%), maintaining the good second quarter momentum. Rates, the largest and most profitable asset class, grew 14% (+15%), benefitting from interest rate volatility. Liquidnet delivered a very strong third quarter, with revenue up 28% (+26%). Liquidnet Equities recorded a 24% (+21%) increase, against a backdrop of continued institutional block market activity. Multi-asset agency brokerage revenue was up 33% (+33%), driven by strong growth in Relative Value strategies.
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| | | | | | Regulation & Enforcement | | | CFTC's Mersinger wants new rules for vertical silos; Republican commissioner shares Democrats' concerns about combined FCMs and clearing houses
Janice Kirkel - Risk.net
A change of administration in the White House on November 5 could result in a change of direction at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but on one vexed issue it appears there may be an emerging bipartisan consensus. Whoever runs the CFTC, Republican commissioner Summer Mersinger thinks the agency should prioritise rulemaking that responds to changes in derivatives market structure. "We need to undertake conflicts of interest rulemaking related to what we are calling vertically
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| | | | | | Technology | | | Driving the electronification of FX futures
Eurex
The FX derivatives market's structure currently consists of two highly electronified spaces, with a manual bridge that transfers flow between the two. In the larger OTC market, which dictates norms throughout the FX derivatives ecosystem, swaps and forwards are executed bilaterally. This model is firmly entrenched in firms' working patterns and not a feature that many are willing to move away from, given the strength of their dealer relationships and embedded workflows.
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| | | | | | Strategy | | | The Trump trade is soaring as bitcoin, dollar, bond yields surge
Huileng Tan, Theron Mohamed, and Matthew Fox - Markets Insider
Investors are turning to the Trump trade after the former president clinched a US election victory.
Trump passed the 270-vote Electoral College majority after winning Wisconsin in the early hours of Wednesday.
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The Only Real Trump Trades Ride on Rising Interest Rates
Edward Harrison and William Selway - Bloomberg
Remember when Donald Trump won the White House in 2016 in part on the promise of "Drill, baby, drill?" Well, it turns out that wasn't a boon for oil companies. The energy sector, in fact, was the worst-performing one during the first Trump Administration. Technology shares rose the most. Forecasting how things will play out in the equity market is no more clear with the prospect of Trump 2.0. That's not stopping traders from bidding up would-be winners, like immigrant-detention-center operator Geo Group Inc., or banks that could benefit from laxer regulations. But trying to divine how equity market sectors will perform has a lot to do with the macro economy and idiosyncratic factors beyond the president's control. Despite record highs for Bitcoin on Trump's election, the same might also be true for crypto too, an asset class with too short a history to judge.
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History says US stocks have a 95% chance of finishing the year strong - and it has nothing to do with Trump's victory
James Faris - Business Insider
More than seven decades' worth of data suggest that US stocks will end 2024 on a high note.
Investors were locked into this consequential election, though history indicates that equities could have charged higher under either candidate's leadership.
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| | | | | | Miscellaneous | | | In Donald Trump, Wall Street will get what it wanted - and what it didn't; Election outcome means less red tape, more M&A and more volatility, but health of financial system looks less certain
Financial Times
Wall Street investors have voted with their wallets - and the outcome, as in the election itself, is resounding. No wonder: the return of Republican Donald Trump to the White House, plus a compliant Senate, should be an enormous giveaway for financial firms. They thrive on unstifled market forces, volatility and low taxes. This bonanza could leave them richer now, and weaker later.
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Contraband Whiskey and a Secret Royal Dinner: Wall Street Goes to Riyadh; Are you an international business titan on the hunt for billions of dollars of Saudi oil cash? Prepare for "a mind game."
Rob Copeland - The New York Times
For this article, Rob Copeland made laps around a $93 lunch buffet and strolled the halls of the Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
At exactly 6:19 p.m. last Tuesday, in a gold-trimmed hallway snaking off the lobby of the Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh, a lesson emerged in money, power and what Arabs call wasta, or influence. The scene was opened by Marc Rowan, the private equity billionaire, pacing the carpet leading up the unremarkably named Meeting Room B - where a few minutes earlier chairs had been arranged in a semicircle. Mr. Rowan, clad in a neat suit rather than his usual sweaters, was 11 minutes early - he actually doubled back a few times, apparently unwilling to arrive first - but was soon followed by a dozen or so titans of technology and finance, including top executives of the Carlyle Group, BlackRock, Citi and Standard Chartered, and founders of the giant hedge funds Bridgewater Associates and Third Point.
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