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Hi John, here's what you need to know for October 5th in 3:14 minutes.

💰 Where can you find the best return for your investment: stocks or bonds? That’s (potentially) the million dollar question, and one we’ve asked a couple of Goldman Sachs experts to answer for you on October 8th. Get your tickets here

Today's big stories

  1. The US economy added fewer jobs than expected in September
  2. It's not just American bank stocks that look like a bargain at the moment – Read Now
  3. An activist investor wants two large investment managers to join forces
1/3

Last Chance Saloon

Last Chance Saloon

What’s Going On Here?

Friday’s US jobs report was the last before November’s presidential election, but no one’s riding off into the sunset just yet: the country added a lower-than-expected 661,000 new jobs in September.

What Does This Mean?

Economists had predicted the US would add 859,000 jobs in September, but the actual figure fell short – and that's despite the 145,000 jobs added to the previous months’ totals. That suggests the economy’s growth has slowed from August’s sharp recovery.

It’s true that the unemployment rate fell by more than expected, from 8.4% in August to 7.9% last month. But that was more down to a drop in “labor force participation” than a bump in job numbers (tweet this). In other words, more out-of-work people than expected stopped looking for jobs. They’re not counted among the “labor force” or the unemployed, which reduces the unemployment rate. It’ll likely rise soon in any case – especially if last week’s job cuts from United Airlines, American Airlines, and Disney are anything to go by.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: He’s aced another test.
Investors usually pay close attention to US jobs reports as they’re a pretty good indicator of how the economy’s doing. Economic growth figures, after all, are too backward-looking by the time they’re released, and survey data can be unreliable. But those investors might’ve been more concerned by the news that the US president tested positive for coronavirus, which seemed to cause stock markets across the globe to fall on Friday.

The bigger picture: You shall not pass.
The Federal Reserve’s been asking the US government to spend more on battling coronavirus, and the House of Representatives obliged by putting forward a new $2.2 trillion support package late last week. But it still needs approval from the rest of the government, and investors hoping the president’s first-hand experience of the pandemic will break the impasse could be sorely disappointed.

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2/3 Premium

(More) Banks Are Going Cheap

What’s Going On Here?

It’s not just American banks that look cheap right now: with an index of big-name European bank stocks just hitting its lowest level since the 1980s, you could pick up a bargain.

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3/3

Spice Up Your Life

Spice Up Your Life

What’s Going On Here?

Investment managers need some love like they’ve never needed love before – so late last week an activist investor revealed his plans to make two of them become one.

What Does This Mean?

Activist investors’ schtick is buying a sizable stake in a company and using it to influence the company’s strategy. Except activist Trian Fund Management has gone one step further: it’s bought 9.9% stakes in two firms – Invesco and Janus Henderson – and is trying to get both of them to do its bidding.

Invesco and Janus Henderson are already products of mergers and acquisitions, and Trian now wants them to join forces. The reason’s pretty straightforward: the more money an investment manager looks after, the more profitable it should be. That’s because more money brings in more fees, even as the investment manager’s costs – like analysts and technology – stay put. That extra profit, Trian hopes, should boost the combined company’s value and make it a fiercer rival to the world’s biggest investment manager, BlackRock.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Eat or be eaten.
Investors have increasingly been pulling their cash out of pricey and underperforming “active” funds in favor of low-cost “passive” funds that don’t require much tinkering. That’s come as a blow to investment managers’ earnings, and driven plenty of them to cut fees in a bid to win investors back. Adding insult to injury, this year’s record low interest rates have forced some funds to abandon fees altogether so their bond investors can earn any sort of a return.

For you personally: Get while the getting’s good.
A world with fewer investment managers would be good for their profits, since it’d relieve some of the pressure to win your business with lower fees. But that’s not the fragmented and competitive world we live in, so you can reap the rewards instead. Keep your eyes peeled for low-fee introductory deals: those savings, with compounding, will eventually add up to something much, much bigger.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Always be nice to people on the way up, because you’ll meet the same people on the way down.”

– Wilson Mizner (an American playwright, raconteur, and entrepreneur)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: What’s The Scam?

“Why are companies like electric vehicle maker Tesla and online grocer Ocado more valuable than the biggest names in the autos and UK grocery industries, even though they earn a fraction of the profit?”

– Stuart in Wiltshire, UK

“Hate to disappoint, Sam, but there’s no clear answer: a company’s share price, after all, reflects the opinions of lots of investors, rather than one cohesive viewpoint. On the one hand, Tesla and Ocado’s values might reflect how optimistic plenty of investors are about their growth. A company’s theoretically worth the present value of its future cash flows, which means investors will push its share price up if they expect it to earn more money further down the line. And if, at the same time, they take a more pessimistic position on industry stalwarts and push their share prices lower, the smaller company’s valuation could overtake them. On the other hand, we could be witnessing ‘irrational exuberance’, where investor enthusiasm pushes company valuations higher than seems sensible when you compare them to the company’s earnings potential. That could explain why Tesla, for example, is worth more than Toyota despite producing a fraction of the vehicles of each year.”

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