| Runs away from bonds | The European Central Blank |
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Hi John, here's what you need to know for December 13th in 3:04 minutes.

Today In Brief

  1. Investment bank JPMorgan is advising investors to sell bonds and buy stocks in 2020
  2. Investors who bought into burrito chain Chilango’s crowdfunded bonds risk losing 90% of their money. Read Now
  3. The European Central Bank followed the US in confirming there’d be no change to its key interest rate
1/3

Cruise Control

Cruise Control

What’s Going On Here?

One of the world’s largest investment banks revealed its predictions for 2020 on Thursday – and it sees smooth sailing ahead.

What Does This Mean?

JPMorgan is recommending its clients buy stocks and steer clear of bonds in 2020. The investment bank expects this year's global economic slowdown to turn around and gather momentum in the next – driven both by improving global manufacturing and a strong US labor market which is lowering the risk of a recession in the country.

But corporate America doesn’t seem to agree. A study released on Wednesday showed more than half the US companies surveyed are expecting a recession in 2020 – and bracing for it by cutting costs, paying off debt, and hoarding cash. Still, now the US president’s announced a trade deal is close, those companies – which have borne the brunt of a prolonged US-China trade war – might have a change of heart…

Why Should I Care?

For you personally: What’s the big idea?
JPMorgan is particularly keen on German and emerging market stocks for 2020, as well as those of Japanese banks. The firm, meanwhile, is advising clients to avoid bonds (particularly riskier but higher-yielding ones) and even going as far as to recommend a bet that the price of gold will fall. The biggest risk in 2020, JPMorgan reckons, is the US presidential election – particularly if a successful Democratic Party nominee enforces policies painful to US businesses, like extra regulation and higher taxes.

The bigger picture: A new decade awaits.
2020 is one thing, but the 2020s are quite another – and analysts aren’t as optimistic about the decade as a whole. With global stock valuations sky-high and bond yields hovering near record lows, investment banks are expecting a classic investor portfolio of stocks and bonds to offer abnormally weak returns.

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2/3 Premium

Mini-Bond Meltdown

Mexican restaurant Chilango – London’s answer to Chipotle – became the latest British business to fall victim to the Nightmare on Main Street this week, filing for a form of bankruptcy protection.

Get the full story

3/3

Y’All Ready For Chris?

Y’All Ready For Chris?

What’s Going On Here?

The new European Central Bank (ECB) president, Christine Lagarde, made her policy meeting debut on Thursday, and – cue the entrance anthem – the crowd went mild.

What Does This Mean?

Back in September, the ECB both cut interest rates to a record low of -0.5% and resumed a program of “quantitative easing”. And it stuck to those guns on Thursday, though it did lower its forecast for eurozone economic growth slightly. The bank, it seems, won’t even consider raising rates or halting European bond purchases until inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services increase – hits its target. They're hoping it might encourage spending while prices are lower and, ultimately, boost growth.

With no big surprises from the announcement, the focus now shifts to the bank’s first “strategy review” in 16 years. The review, due in January, will look at whether the inflation target – which hasn’t been met in years – needs adjusting. It’ll also tackle broader issues like inequality, climate change, and technological developments.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Contraction contagion. 
With European manufacturing in a slump as the US-China trade war and Brexit take their toll, it’s no wonder the ECB wants to revive the region’s economy. But new data on Thursday – which showed industrial production in the eurozone contracted again in October – suggests there’s still a long road ahead. The ECB might be worried that the longer the slump continues, the more likely it is to spread to other sectors in the bloc.

Zooming out: Stuck in limbo.
The ECB  certainly doesn’t have the lowest rates in town: Switzerland’s central bank kept its interest rate at -0.75% when it met on Thursday. But while the ECB is worried about inflation and weak growth, the Swiss central bank is more worried about a strong currency that’s hurting exporters. A lower interest rate might discourage investors from keeping their money in Swiss francs and should, in theory, keep the currency from strengthening further.

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💬 Quote

“Make it simple but significant.”

– Don Draper (a character from Mad Men, chosen by Finimizer Dana Chilari)
🤔 Q&A

“Has the ‘gig economy’ muddied the US’s employment figures – and could it be the reason wage growth isn’t even higher?”

– Lizzie in South Africa

“Not as much as you might think, Lizzie. It’s true that informal contract workers who, say, drive for Uber or deliver food for Postmates don’t have set hours and aren’t classified as part- or full-time workers. But there are categories in the government’s official data that include them. Since gig economy jobs tend to have unreliable hours and salaries, it’s certainly possible these workers would be earning more if they were in other jobs, which would push average wages up. But it’s hard to say with much certainty, given that they might be taking gig roles as a second job, or might struggle to find work otherwise.”

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🤷‍♀️ All in a Dana's work

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Meet Dana Chilari, an equity research analyst who, it’s fair to say, has put us to shame with all the plates she keeps spinning. Not only does she have a day job, she’s also started a PhD in behavioral finance and hosts top-notch Finimize Community events in Romania. We’re exhausted just thinking about it…

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