So we’re in the strange place where Paul Ryan—globalist, RINO, scourge of tru-cons everywhere—is now wholly aligned with Donald Trump—populist avenger, conqueror, and the truest of true-conservatives. They became teamed up in pursuit of a healthcare reform package that exactly no one really liked. And in the aftermath of its failure, Trump has decided to target . . . the House Freedom Caucus? Yes. Oh yes. It is on. There were a lot of ways to read the healthcare debacle kabuki. You could plausibly argue that it was: (1) A sincere attempt to begin reversing Obamacare given a crippling set of political and legislative strictures. (2) A tacit acknowledgment that Obamacare is unlikely to be reversed, but a sincere attempt to improve it, however marginally. (3) A cynical gambit designed to appear to be an attempt to reverse Obamacare—but that was really designed to fail in such a manner as to cause the least amount of damage to congressional Republicans and President Trump. (4) A cynical gambit designed to fail and to cause serious damage to someone within the Republican power structure. There’s at least some evidence to support each of these views. But now that Obamacare repeal/replace/reform is at least temporarily dead, President Trump seems intent on going after conservatives in Congress. He said he wants to “fight” the Freedom Caucus (and Democrats!) in 2018. His social media director was tweeting about the need to beat Justin Amash in the primary. Mark Sanford says that Trump dispatched his former colleague Mick Mulvaney to deliver a personal message from the president to Sanford: “‘The president asked me to look you square in the eyes and to say that he hoped that you voted ‘no’ on this bill so he could run (a primary challenger) against you in 2018.’” And meanwhile, one of Trump’s big intellectual defenders is saying that it’s time for Trump to start working with Democrats to push Canadian-style, single-payer universal healthcare. I bring all of this up because during the campaign I often wrote that Trump would neither repeal Obamacare nor build a border wall paid for by Mexico. Accomplishing either of those tasks would require an enormous expenditure of political capital. Either would provoke extreme political opposition and ground the rest of his agenda to a stop. To pursue either of them all the way would mean paying an intense political price in exchange for a real policy gain. My suspicion was that at the end of the day, congressional Republicans would not want to bite either of these bullets and Trump would be neither willing nor able to convince them to do so. I’ve long suspected that Trumpism isn’t an agenda or a worldview so much as a pose. After all, that’s what the “take him seriously, not literally” argument amounts to. It’s an attempt to make Trump’s success un-falsifiable and remove any means by which to measure his success or failure. The reason Trump’s supporters have done this is so that he can’t be judged by, say, whether or not he repeals Obamacare. Instead, they want him to be judged by the more elastic criteria of whether or not he looks, acts, and sounds like Donald Trump. And for all I know, in our debased culture that might turn out to be enough. I’ve already given you the Substandard plug, so I’ll close by reminding you one more time: There’s a new episode tomorrow. You should subscribe on iTunes or Google Play. It’s great. Best, JVL |