Lack of Existing Home Listings Boost Builder Confidence

Home builders’ attitudes about the market for newly constructed homes continued to improve in May, partially due to the lack of available pre-owned homes for sale. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index which measures builder confidence jumped 5 points to 50, the fifth straight month the index has risen. It was also the first time the index has reached the midpoint of the index since July 2022. NAHB’s chief economist Robert Dietz said “New home construction is taking on an increased role in the marketplace because many homeowners with loans well below current mortgage rates are electing to stay put, and this is keeping the supply of existing homes at a very low level. In March, 33 percent of homes listed for sale were new homes in various stages of construction. That share from 2000-2019 was a 12.7 percent average. With limited available housing inventory, new construction will continue to be a significant part of prospective buyers’ search in the quarters ahead.” While optimism is rising, builders remain cautious in the face of ongoing industry challenges. In addition to shortages of building materials – Dietz specifically cited transformers – tightened conditions for construction and development loans are also hampering builders. Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of both current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate the traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

May 16, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Lack of Existing Home Listings Boost Builder Confidence Home builders’ attitudes about the market for newly constructed homes continued to improve in May, partially due to the lack of available pre-owned homes for sale. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Mar... (read more) MBS Commentary Breaking Down The Paradoxical Reaction to Retail Sales Breaking Down The Paradoxical Reaction to Retail Sales Today's Retail Sales headline may have missed the mark versus forecasts, but the internal components told a more upbeat tale. Sales were up ju... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Inch Up to 2-Week Highs Mortgage rates didn't change much today. The average lender was only a hair higher than yesterday afternoon. But that was enough for today's rates to be the highest we've since May 1st, just over 2 weeks ago. The fact that rates rose at ... (read more) Rob Chrisman Referral, Credit, Jumbo, Marketing, Online App Products; Fed Thoughts While Rates Tread Water While Academy Mortgage is in the headlines again about its data breach and ransomware, from which no company seems immune, remember that, “In a democracy it's your vote that counts. In feudalism it's your count that votes.” Setting mortgage rates isn... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.69% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.69% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.05% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.34% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% +0.02 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.85% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.34% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 5/16 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.05% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% -0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/11 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.55% +0.12 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.03% +0.14 0.56 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% +0.12 0.50 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/26 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.05 -0.14 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 99.05 -0.14 UMBS 5.5 100.42 -0.11 GNMA 5.0 99.27 -0.13 GNMA 5.5 100.28 -0.08 Pricing as of: 5/16 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.5400 +0.0320 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.086 +0.076 5 YR Treasury 3.529 +0.057 7 YR Treasury 3.530 +0.043 10 YR Treasury 3.540 +0.032 30 YR Treasury 3.856 +0.011 Pricing as of: 5/16 5:31PM EST Latest Video Demand will return to housing market in greater extent if rates fall, says ... Home Depot is facing a headwind from low home sales, says Bleakley's Peter ... Mick Mulvaney on debt ceiling talks: Treasury Sec. Yellen 'doing the opposi... Business inventories fall 0.1%; homebuilder confidence rises 5 points to 50 Around the Web CNBC Stashing cash: 71% of Americans are setting more money aside amid recession fears, new report finds CNBC Homebuilder sentiment pulls out of negative territory for the first time in nearly a year Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in April CNBC Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time despite slide in mortgage demand CNBC Treasury yields fall as investors weigh Fed rate policy path FHFA FHFA Requests Input on the Enterprises’ Single-Family Pricing Framework CNBC Retail sales rose 0.4% in April, less than expected as consumers struggle with inflation Calculated Risk Blog NY Fed Q1 Report: Household Debt Increases, Mortgage Loan Growth Slows Calculated Risk Blog NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in May Eye on Housing Year-over-Year Decline for Single-Family Permits in March 2023 Calculated Risk Blog Housing May 15th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Increased 0.5% in April

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