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| Wednesday, September 28, 2022 |
| Hello and happy Wednesday. John Breech is shouldering the load for Will Brinson on today's "Pick Six" podcast (more below), so you've got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver all the latest in newsletter form. |
| This is the Pick Six Newsletter. Now let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.) |
| We've got betting picks, lots of quarterback news, Week 4 predictions, and more: |
| Today's show: Week 4 betting trends, picks, preview |
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| Tyler Sullivan and John Breech led the "Pick Six NFL Podcast" on Wednesday, previewing and predicting some of Week 4's best matchups from a betting perspective. Some highlights: |
| Sully thinks Bills vs. Ravens could be a sneak peek at this year's AFC Championship, as well as a "good bounce-back spot for Buffalo." He's willing to lay the points in favor of Buffalo, even on the road, because of Josh Allen.Breech is concerned about Hurricane Ian's impact on the Buccaneers ahead of their matchup with the Chiefs (-2.5), considering they've already had to travel for practice. He also expects Andy Reid's team to be more disciplined after Week 3. Sully loves the Dolphins on "Thursday Night Football" as 3.5-point road underdogs. He expects Tua Tagovailoa to play for Miami, but even if that's not the case, he trusts Mike McDaniel's offense to take care of the ball. |
| Catch the full episode (and subscribe for all kinds of daily NFL talk) right here. |
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| 2. Prisco's Picks: Raiders get first win, Eagles stay undefeated |
| Pete Prisco is above .500 on his best bets this year, but he's looking to take the next step this week, predicting every game on the Week 4 schedule. Here's a sampling: |
| Raiders 28, Broncos 24: At 0-3, the Raiders need a victory in the worst way. They have lost some tough games. The Broncos have played well on defense, but the offense has struggled. That's the difference here.Eagles 28, Jaguars 24: This is one of the best games of the weekend. Who could have imagined? Watching the Eagles offense against the Jaguars defense will be a treat. Can the Jaguars contain Jalen Hurts? It won't be easy.Bills 35, Ravens 30: The Bills are playing consecutive road games, which is always tough. But they are also coming off their first loss and have major injury issues. The Ravens have injury problems as well. Both quarterbacks are playing at an MVP level. So look for a lot of points as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson shoot it out. |
| 3. Prescott eyeing Week 5 return; Cowboys smitten with Rush |
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| On the injury front in Dallas, Dak Prescott's absence with a fractured thumb hasn't been nearly as disastrous as it first seemed. That's because backup Cooper Rush, now 3-0 in emergency starts for Prescott, has won back-to-back games to keep the Cowboys afloat in the NFC East. Jerry Jones, who teased Rush's potential as a future starter, is now suggesting the veteran has the "makeup of a top QB." Prescott, meanwhile, is eyeing a Week 5 return against the Rams after initially hinting he'd be back this week against the Commanders. The Pro Bowler had the stitch in his thumb removed Monday. |
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| 4. Tagovailoa aiming to play vs. Bengals despite injuries |
| The Dolphins are under investigation for allowing Tua Tagovailoa to resume playing in Week 3 after a head injury left him clearly dazed, and now the third-year QB is also battling an ankle issue. But all signs point to Tagovailoa suiting up for Thursday's Week 4 matchup with the Bengals. Tua said he's planning to be out there against Cincinnati, and coach Mike McDaniel was even more optimistic addressing reporters this week, saying the only reason Tagovailoa won't play is if it "literally was not possible." |
| 5. QB Power Rankings: Trevor Lawrence climbing top 15 |
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| Every week, we rank all 32 starting QBs from first to worst. Ahead of Week 4, a few youngsters are rising up the ranks after promising growth under center. Here's a look at some notable movers: |
10.) Eagles' Jalen Hurts (+1)
14.) Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence (+1)
15.) Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa (+1)
20.) Lions' Jared Goff (+2)
22.) Seahawks' Geno Smith (+4) |
| 6. Steelers sticking with Trubisky for Week 4 vs. Jets |
| Steel City is eagerly anticipating the debut of rookie Kenny Pickett, but Mike Tomlin isn't making any QB changes anytime soon. Or at least that's what the coach suggested ahead of Sunday's matchup with New York. After declaring that he's seen improvement from starter Mitchell Trubisky "in all areas," Tomlin defended the team's decision-making at the position. |
| "Certainly, we're going to do what's required to handle this week's business, which is to win. I'm open to whatever that entails, but at the same time, we're not going to blow in the wind," Tomlin said. "Sometimes, you've just got to show steely resolve and smile in the face of adversity ... roll our sleeves up, get back to work and wait for our next opportunity." |
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