| | | | Thursday, May 30, 2024 | | Wednesday is rankings day at Fantasy Baseball Today, as Scott White, Frank Stampfl, and I all spend hours combing through our rankings for our latest updates. We talked about some of the biggest risers and fallers on Thursday morning's FBT podcast, and you can see Scott White's breakdown of the biggest movers at each position here – and I'm pleased to see that Scott isn't worried about Pablo Lopez at all. | | Neither am I, as I wrote in looking at the top buy-low candidates here. Lopez is still a top-five starting pitcher in my rankings, and he remains an elite trade target in my updated Trade Values Chart, which you can find here. Yes, his 5.25 ERA is ugly, but that's just about the only thing that's gone wrong for him so far, and that's pretty easy to write off for me. | | We're maintaining that confidence in Lopez even though his struggles look even worse in the context of a pitching landscape that has been far better than expected. Just yesterday, I wrote about five extremely interesting pitching performances to target on the waiver-wire, and on Wednesday, there were many more impressive pitching stars to take note of. I wrote about all of them in the rest of today's newsletter, but I figure you might need help finding hitting a lot more than pitching these days, so I'm making sure to focus on that in today's waiver-wire section. | | That's first up in the rest of today's newsletter, with the biggest news and standout performances to know about following that. Let's get to everything you need to know about from Wednesday's action: | | | | Thursday's top waiver targets | | | | Nolan Gorman, 2B, Cardinals (58%) – April was an absolute disaster for Gorman, but he's already back to being an above-average hitter for the season as a whole, if you can believe it. That'll happen when you homer six times with a 1.200 OPS in a 15-game span as Gorman has done. He's still probably going to be a batting average liability moving forward (.234 expected batting average), but he's also still one of the best sources of power at the second base position and someone who should be more widely rostered than he is. | | Joseph Ortiz, 3B, Brewers (56%) – The Brewers decision to use Ortiz as a part-time player early in the season was a curious one, given that he was one of the centerpieces of the Corbin Burnes trade, and his play since locking up a regular role has made it look even worse. Ortiz has started 19 of 25 games since the start of May and is hitting .295 with an OPS well north of .900 in that span, and he was just moved to the leadoff spot for Wednesday's game. Hitting at the top of the lineup with how well he's been playing could make Ortiz not just a player worth adding in most Fantasy leagues but potentially one who could be worth starting in all formats, especially if he starts running more – he stole his first base of the month as a leadoff hitter. | | Masyn Winn , SS, Cardinals (44%) – Winn has been pretty terrific in his first taste of the majors, hitting .308 after his three-hit showing Wednesday to extend his hitting streak to 18 games. And he's backed it up with a .279 expected batting average – not quite as healthy as his actual mark, though with his all-fields, line-drive approach and athleticism, he might be able to keep outrunning that. Right now, the only problem is, it's kind of an empty batting average – he's going to struggle to hit for much power, and the counting stats aren't great at the bottom of a pretty bad Cardinals lineup. The hope here is that he'll move up in the order before long, and I wouldn't mind seeing him run more – his seven steals are solid, but he could do a lot more with his 87th percentile sprint speed. It's not hard to see Winn turning into a Tim Anderson-type contributor before long, though. | | | | Matt Vierling, OF, Tigers (13%) – With Kerry Carpenter placed on the IL, Vierling could have a path to even more consistent playing time, though honestly, he was earning that long before this injury. Vierling has been one of the Tigers best hitters this season, especially in May, where he entered play Wednesday with a .947 OPS before going 3 for 4 with a homer and four RBI. He hit second in this one and could be a factor in five-outfielder leagues moving forward. | | Josh Bell, 1B, Marlins (41%) – Long one of the most frustratingly inconsistent hitters in the game, this season has been an extremely tough one for Bell, who has been making a ton of weak contact for a while. But he's starting to show signs of turning things around lately with consecutive three-hit games and a .338 average and an OPS over .900 over his past 16 games. When Bell gets hot, he can be a must-start Fantasy player, and he sure looks hot right now. If you're looking for pop on the wire, he's worth a look. | | Spencer Schwellenbach, SP, Braves (23%) – Schwellenbach made his debut Wednesday against the Nationals as the latest fast-moving prospect to make the leap for the Braves, this time from Double-A. The results were fine, with Schwellenbach allowing three earned runs in five innings of work, striking out five and allowing just one walk while throwing 88 pitches – a career-high as a professional, and seeing as he was a reliever in college, likely the most he's ever thrown in a start. He averaged 95.9 mph with his four-seam fastball and showed some whiff upside with his curveball (four), though his slider and cutter both left something to be desired in that regard, with just three combined on 21 swings. Still, there's clearly talent here, and it wasn't a bad debut at all given that he's thrown just 13 innings above A-ball. If Schwellenbach hangs around in the Braves rotation, he'll be backed up by what is still a great lineup, which should put him in line for wins, and there's some strikeout potential. I think I'd rank him around Jake Irvin among yesterday's waiver-wire targets, but in deeper leagues, that still means he's worth a look. | | | | News and Notes | | Edwin Diaz was placed on the 15-day IL with a right shoulder impingement. | | Over his last five appearances Diaz had a 16.62 ERA and a 3.00 WHIP, and I guess we now have our answer for why he was struggling. As long as he gets healthy, I still expect Diaz to be an elite closer, so your only hope here is to stash him and hope he's not out too long. I'd guess Reed Garrett and Adam Ottavino will get some save opportunities moving forward, though both of them have struggled recently as well, and the Mets don't exactly seem like they'll have a ton of save opportunities moving forward. | | Pete Alonso left after getting hit by a pitch on his right hand. X-rays came back negative but he's undergoing additional tests. It's not the same hand as last season, thankfully. | | Tyler O'Neill was officially placed on the IL with right knee inflammation. The Red Sox started Jarren Duran, Ceddane Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu in their outfield with Rob Refsnyder at DH on Wednesday. | | Jordan Westburg was not in the lineup after getting hit in the hand by a pitch on Tuesday. X-rays came back negative, so hopefully it's just a short-term absence. | | Yu Darvish was removed from his start after three innings due to left hamstring tightness. He looked a bit off, so I wonder if that hamstring was affecting him before he was ultimately pulled. | | Alek Manoah was removed from his start Wednesday due to discomfort in his right elbow. I think you can go ahead and drop him if you need the roster spot. | | Kerry Carpenter was placed on the IL with lumbar spine inflammation. Akil Baddoo was recalled. | | Lars Nootbaar was removed in the 8th inning with a left side injury. This guy has really struggled to stay on the field, so we'll keep an eye on this latest issue. | | Trevor Megill has avoided the IL for now but could miss a few days after getting hit by a comebacker on Tuesday night. | | Zach Eflin will throw a bullpen session Thursday. He's been on the IL since May 19 with a back injury, but hopefully this goes well and he can make his return relatively soon. | | Josh Lowe went through a full workout on the field and hit in the batting cage prior to Tuesday's game. It seems way too soon following an oblique injury, but it is also a sign that this is a less serious issue than the prior one that landed him on the IL. | | Josh Jung has resumed swinging a bat. Bruce Bochy said Jung "looks great". A clearer timetable for the third baseman could be established in the coming days as he works his way back from wrist surgery. | | Chris Bassitt will make his next start Sunday as scheduled. He left his previous outing with neck spasms. | | TJ Friedl was activated from the IL and was plugged into the lead off spot against righty Andre Pallante. Mike Ford was designated for assignment. | | The Braves signed Ramon Laureano to a minor-league contract, which makes sense. Maybe he earns some playing time in a platoon with Jarred Kelenic, but he'll need to prove himself before Fantasy players have any interest. | | Rays prospect Junior Caminero was placed on the IL at Triple-A with a Grade 2 left quad strain and he's expected to miss 4-6 weeks. You can probably cut him in all formats at this point, because we may not see him until late-July at this point. | | Wednesday's standouts | | George Kirby, Mariners vs. HOU: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – I wouldn't say Kirby needed an outing like this, but it was sure nice to see after a pretty tough start to the season. His 4.33 ERA entering the start made him one of the more obvious buy-low candidates at the SP position, even if I still don't buy the idea that he's likely to be the ace some hoped for coming into the season. | | Jared Jones, Pirates @DET: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K – Jones is slowing down a bit in a quite literal sense, as his four-seam fastball velocity was down 1.3 mph Wednesday. There have been some fluctuations in his velocity, even within starts at times, that make it fair to wonder if he can sustain his early-season success. Of course, even his relatively slow down in May still comes with a 3.99 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning even after Wednesday, which was his first non-quality start since April. I still have a lot of faith in Jones as a borderline ace, though some doubts are admittedly starting to creep in. | | Paul Skenes, Pirates @DET: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – In fact, I'd say it's fair to wonder if Skenes has already passed his slightly more experienced teammate. Skenes has been pretty much everything you could have hoped for through his first four starts, with 30 strikeouts and only five walks in 22 innings while displaying legitimate ace stuff. The only question, really, is how much the Pirates are going to let him pitch the rest of the way. If he's not facing limitations, I think you can make a case for Skenes as a top-10 pitcher already. | | Shota Imanaga, Cubs @MIL: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – Yeah, something like this was always coming at some point. Not that you should have seen this coming, of course, but Imanaga was obviously never going to sustain an ERA near 1.00, and even after this one, there might still be a full run's worth of regression coming from his 1.86 ERA. he's been tremendous, obviously, but he's also a flyball pitcher with a very good, but less-than-elite strikeout rate, so homers are probably going to be an issue as the weather continues to warm up. I still expect Imanaga to be a top-25 starter the rest of the way, but there also still might be a sell-high window here if someone views him as an ace. | | Mackenzie Gore, Nationals @ATL: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – Without Ronald Acuña, the Braves may not be the matchup we avoid at almost any cost any more, but I don't think that should take away from what Gore did here – the Braves still had seven batting title qualifiers with an OPS north of .800 last season, after all. And, of course, there's the fact that Gore has also had starts like this against, among others, the Dodgers, Phillies, and Rangers this season. He finished May with a 2.60 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and 34 strikeouts in 27.2 innings of work and clearly looks to have made a leap thanks to increased fastball velocity and his improved slider and changeup. You'd like to see him pitch deeper into games more consistently, but that's about the only knock you can make on Gore's game right now. | | Bailey Ober, Twins vs. KC: 5 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – The Royals just have this guy's number. In two starts against them, he's given up a 19.89 ERA with six homers; he's given up four homers and has a 3.02 ERA against everyone else. Which is to say, there probably isn't much reason to worry about that 4.89 ERA, though I'm not entirely willing to just dismiss it as bad luck or an especially bad matchup, either – Ober had trouble with homers at times last season, after all, and he's just a good, not-great strikeout pitcher, so there will be ugly starts like this along the way. On the whole, I'd expect his current ERA to drop by at least a run, though, so there's clearly a buy window if you want to jump in. | | Luis Gil, Yankees @LAA: 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – Gil is genuinely one of the toughest players to rank in Fantasy right now. He just finished off an absurd month of May where he became the first pitcher in Yankees history with 40-plus strikeouts and an ERA below 0.75 for a calendar month, and after walking 19 batters in 24.2 innings in April, he walked just 12 in 38.2 in May. If that control is real, he just might be an ace, but it's a significant outlier for his career dating back to the minors, and Gil has thrown just 29.2 innings over the past two seasons, so there's gotta be an innings limit here at some point. That point could be when Gerritt Cole is ready to come back from the IL, presumably sometime in June. I have him ranked just outside the top 40 at SP right now, but he could drop a lot from there, and might be one of the most obvious sell-high candidates in the game right now. | | Ryan Pepiot, Rays vs. OAK: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Pepiot is a strange pitcher. He's getting a ton of strikeouts, but he almost always has to rely on his four-seam fastball for his swinging strikes, which isn't how most pitchers typically succeed. It can work when you're sporting a near-40% whiff rate with the pitch as he is, but I just don't know how sustainable that is – Luis Castillo had the highest whiff rate among starters with his four-seamer last year at 33%. Pepiot was able to get more whiffs with his changeup Wednesday, which could be huge if it proves repeatable moving forward … but it was also the A's, so skepticism is warranted. I tend to lean toward Pepiot being a sell-high candidate, at least in leagues where his RP eligibility doesn't boost his value. | | Justin Verlander, Astros @SEA: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Alright, well now we have a conundrum on our hands, because that's two nine-strikeout showings in a row from Verlander and three with at least eight in his past four starts after it looks like the days of big strikeout showings from the veteran were well in the past. I want to buy into the idea that Verlander still has some ace stuff left in him, but I think this might be as much about who he was facing as who was pitching – the A's and Mariners are two of the most strikeout-prone lineups in the league right now. That's not to say this definitely isn't for real, but absent a jump in velocity (it was actually down a bit in these two starts) or some change in pitch mix, I don't have much to go on here. I'll just keep riding Verlander, but I'm probably not actively trying to trade for him. | | Cristopher Sanchez , Phillies @SF: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Last season, Sanchez averaged 92.1 mph with his sinker; Wednesday, it was up to 95.8 mph! His velocity has been up all season, but this is a new high, though what's interesting is that it's not like it's helped him generate more whiffs – he actually had no whiffs with the sinker Wednesday and has a whiff rate well below last season's 10.7% rate. His changeup is still an elite pitch, however, and he leaned on a new cutter a bit more today, generating two whiffs on four pitches. Sanchez generates tons of weak contact and groundballs, and after his walk rate spiked in April, he issued just seven free passes over 31 innings in an excellent May. I moved him up in my latest rankings update, and I think he's a top-60 starter the rest of the way. | | Seth Lugo, Royals @MIN: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – I think Lugo can be a useful pitcher for Fantasy, but I also think there might not be a pitcher who is performing over his head more than him right now. That kind of goes without saying when you're talking about someone with a 1.72 ERA, but I still think it's worth looking to see what you can get for him in trade, because his ERA might balloon more than two runs before it's all said and done – his 3.74 xERA attests to that. I'd be looking to move him for one of my buy-low pitchers here or, ideally, an outfielder like Nolan Jones or Seiya Suzuki with difference-making upside. | | James Paxton, Dodgers @NYM: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – Just go ahead and drop him. Paxton pitched on four days' rest for the first time all season Wednesday and the Dodgers pulled him after just three innings. He has as many walks as strikeouts and has gone six innings just four times in 10 starts. There are maybe 110 pitchers I'd rather have on my Fantasy team at this point. | | Corey Seager, SS, Rangers – Remember when Seager was a significant disappointment and people were wondering what was wrong with him? Well, now he's got eight homers in as many games and 11 in the month of May overall, his most in a month ever. This is why we don't worry about superstars who get off to slow starts. | | Will Smith, C, Dodgers – Smith is such a set-it-and-forget-it option at catcher that it's easy to overlook how well he's played this season. He hit his 99th and 100th career homers Wednesday against the Mets and is now hitting .296 with an .876 OPS, his best numbers since the shortened 2020. And he's got the underlying numbers to back it up. He's right there with the best hitters at the position. | | Christian Yelich, OF, Brewers – Given that back injuries were largely blamed for Yelich's fall from MVP status, it was scary to see him go on the IL with a back issue in April, given how hot he was to start the season. Well, the good news here is, he hasn't really slowed down at all since coming back from the IL, hitting .289 in his past 18 games after going 2 for 4 with a long homer Wednesday. He has his best quality of contact metrics since 2020 right now, and with five steals since coming back from the IL, remains a terrific five-category star for Fantasy. | | | | | | | | SailGP | | PGA Tour | Halifax hosts the first ever Sail Grand Prix event in Canada this weekend on CBS Sports Network. Catch the race on Saturday and Sunday at 3 PM ET.
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| | The PGA Tour heads north to the RBC Heritage Canadian Open where the defending champion, Nick Taylor, and the rest of a fantastic field will compete. Watch live this Saturday at 5:30 PM ET and Sunday at 2:30 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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