Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats are projected to win the German election, with the far-right AfD in second place. Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), the winners of the last election in 2021, are projected to fall to third place.

If confirmed, the results would be the worst in the SPD's more than 100-year history, while also marking the first time since World War Two that the Christian Democrats and SPD did not take the first two places in a national election. 

Projections offer little clarity as to whether the liberal FDP and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) would hit the 5% threshold needed to gain seats in the Bundestag. Their fate will be critical in determining whether Merz needs a two-party or three-party coalition to form a government.