Starmer (pictured above) knows that his party’s strong position is a trap when it comes to interpreting these results: it means that anything short of triumph might look like defeat. But it is fair to interpret their results through the prism of the mountain to climb to win the next election – with a bigger swing needed than Tony Blair managed in 1997. That means, Rob Ford wrote, that “nothing less than a knockout blow will do”. Whatever the message from the centre, local candidates are less guarded. In Plymouth, Jamie Grierson reported, Labour campaigners “sense that this election is theirs to lose”. Canvassers tell him they are optimistic they can win the 12 out of 19 seats in contention that they need to take control of the council: “Last year, people were chasing Labour from their doorsteps,” says Tudor Evans, the party’s local leader. “This year, they are chasing them but to catch up and ask them for a poster to put in their window.” Lib Dems | Hopes of picking off Tories in the “blue wall” Most of the areas where the third party hopes to pick up seats are traditional Conservative heartlands where even the disillusioned are wary of Labour. But they have real hopes of making the kind of showing that could leave big Conservative names like Michael Gove and Dominic Raab anxious about their prospects in the general election. Polly Toynbee went canvassing with the Liberal Democrats in Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath constituency, where the majority of Tory councillors are not standing again: “Running for the hills,” a Lib Dem tells her. “Before, there was no point in following the fortunes of forlorn opposition candidates trying to knock down impenetrable home-county blue walls,” she writes. “There is now.” Tactical voting | Denied by the centre, but happening organically Voters who hope that Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens will form the fabled “progressive alliance” might be cheered by places like Bracknell Forest, where, Michael Savage wrote in the Observer, only one of the three parties is standing in 12 of the 15 seats up for grabs. “To believe that this arrangement is the result of some bizarre coincidence stretches credulity,” Michael wrote. Local party figures are unwilling to acknowledge as much on the record, but one tells him that “It’s really a story about how to make the best of it in a borough which is heavily skewed [towards the Tories]. Focus your attention on where you’re going to win.” Labour and Lib Dem HQs fear that an explicit tactical alliance could be offputting for some of their target voters. But John Curtice told Polly Toynbee: “The last time I saw tactical voting on this scale was before the 1997 election when voters just wanted to get the Conservatives out.” Toynbee adds: “It needs no secret pacts, just each party reserving all energy for its own winnables.” Voter ID | People may stay away – but it’s impossible to know how many Today’s vote is also the first mass use of voter ID in the UK outside of Northern Ireland – and there are serious concerns about the impact. The number of voters without the necessary ID is thought to be about 2 million; by 23 April, only 50,000 had applied for a special voter certificate that would be acceptable in lieu of ID. Gaby Hinsliff notes: “Those at greatest risk of disenfranchisement are … disproportionately likely to be unemployed, disabled or lacking educational qualifications, and those who have never voted before.” The problem of voter impersonation is almost unknown in Britain. Official data released last month showed just seven allegations of “personation” at polling stations in 2022, with none leading to police action. While the government has promised to review the system to see how many are disenfranchised under the new rules, last week a minister refused to say whether the number of voters turned away because they lack ID will be recorded. That suggests that the true extent of the problem may be very hard to gauge. |