By Bill Bonner Thursday, October 15, 2020 – Week 31 of the Quarantine SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – Over the weekend, the World Health Organization threw a petard into the Lockdown/No Lockdown debate: WHO warns against COVID-19 lockdowns WHO envoy Dr. David Nabarro said such restrictive measures should only be treated as a last resort, the British magazine the Spectator reported in a video interview. “The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.” Nabarro said tight restrictions cause significant harm, particularly on the global economy. “Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never, ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,” he said. “Look what’s happened to smallholder farmers all over the world. Look what’s happening to poverty levels. It seems that we may well have a doubling of world poverty by next year. We may well have at least a doubling of child malnutrition.” Hungry children? Millions of them? Trillions’ worth of real output are at stake… trillions’ worth of phony stimulus… and millions – maybe billions – of lives. But America’s president looked at the news and saw only his own reflection: “The World Health Organization just admitted that I was right,” he tweeted. And America’s most important “newspaper of record,” The New York Times, could only think of a political angle: Trump Overstates W.H.O.’s Position on Lockdowns Grim Outlook Meanwhile, much of the world – with quack experts in the drivers’ seats – heads for a crack-up. In the UK, GDP is said to be running about 10% below last year… In the U.S., in GDP alone, it looks like the lockdowns will take about $1 trillion out peoples’ pockets. But the losses are not distributed evenly. If the Federal Reserve pushes up a billionaire’s wealth by just 10%… 99 million other people could actually get poorer. But the headlines would still tell us we were all getting richer – on average. At the top, even millions of dollars – up or down – don’t make much difference. But at the very bottom – where the World Bank says there are some 700 million people living on less than $2 per day – an economic slowdown can mark the frontier between life and death. The “experts” say to lock the doors… stay at home… cover up… and stay away. But it wasn’t the medical experts who brought us longer lives; it was the plumbers, the farmers, and the builders. It was the entrepreneurs, tinkers, and business builders, not the public health professionals. Improved living standards raised life expectancies all around the world. This from professors Maryaline Catillon and David M. Cutler, both of Harvard, and Thomas E. Getzen of Temple University: Growth in life expectancy during the last two centuries has been attributed to environmental change, productivity growth, improved nutrition, and better hygiene, rather than to advances in medical care. Keep the plumbers and bakers at home and living standards fall… So, it is reasonable to expect, as the WHO implies, that when the economy goes down, life expectancies will decline, too. And we can guess what happens next: For every year of life saved for the rich geezers by shutting down the economy… there may be hundreds of years lost by the poor all over the world. Do You Know About “Tech Royalty” Investing? Lockdown Again On Monday, we got word that our province here in Argentina – Salta – has gone back into panic mode. There are new cases of the coronavirus in the city; the roads in the region have been closed. From Europe, word comes that Ireland has banned home visits… France has imposed a curfew in its major cities… and London has closed bars and restaurants. A waste of time? Worse? A dear reader, Rich B., comments: Last week, I looked up COVID-19 deaths, as reported by the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 website. It turns out that Sweden – a country that did NOT lock down its businesses and schools – has suffered 575 COVID-19 deaths per million residents. But Sweden’s surviving residents are enjoying the lifestyle that Americans were enjoying a year ago. Lockdown-USA, on the other hand, has suffered 600 deaths per million, high unemployment, and a miserable lifestyle, i.e. alive, but not really living. So who says that lockdowns save lives? Nonsense. Further, Sweden isn’t worried about if/when a vaccine will appear, because its populace is now mostly immune. While other Europeans are now being assaulted by a second wave of the plague, Swedes remain largely unaffected But in the simple-minded view of the Coronavirus Cavalry, détente is out of the question. Only one thing matters: beating the virus. Liberty? Constitutional rights? Happiness? Child hunger? Who cares about those when there’s a killer on the loose! Recommended Link | Reclusive Best-Selling Author Issues Final Warning The Founder of the largest “underground” financial research firm in the world… Has one last warning to readers. Bill Bonner founded The Agora in 1978. Today – after 40+ years in the publishing business – he’s coming forward with his final warning. And not a moment too soon… With offices in 11 countries… millions of daily readers… and two New York Times best-sellers to his name already… Bill’s latest – and last – warning may be the most important of his career. |
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War Footing Within two weeks of President Trump announcing his State of Emergency back in mid-March, it was clear that there was no emergency at all. From the initial numbers coming from Italy, we saw that the killer was no mass-murderer. Instead, he was like a nursing home psychopath, singling out the weakest, the oldest, and the sickest. The first data told us that an old person – over the age of 80 – was about 1,000 times more likely to die from the coronavirus than a person under the age of 20. The prudent approach would have been to bring in a few good detectives; let them figure out how to keep old people and the virus away from each other. Instead, the feds declared war, with almost the whole economy put on a war footing! The One Big Threat You Face on November 3rd. Martial Law Now, seven months and $4 trillion down the drain… the data hasn’t changed much. A lot of people get the virus. But few are harmed by it. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), if you are aged between 20 and 49, there’s no point in worrying about it. Only 0.02% of the people in that age group who get it will die from it. Even from there up to the age of 70, it shouldn’t be a big worry. If you get the disease, you have only a 0.5% chance of dying – that’s one in 200. Over 70, the odds get worse. The old-timers should stay away from it. But even for them, nearly 19 out of 20 who get the disease come out okay. But the sword wavers had their blood up. It suited their vanity… their careers… their lust for power and glory. They saw that by frightening the public with a health scare, they could get away with almost anything. In a matter of days, they had much of the country under martial law. And their field marshal, Anthony Fauci, after sitting in his lonely National Institutes of Health (NIH) barracks polishing his boots for the last 52 years, was now on the cover of magazines… and on TV, at the right-hand side of the Commander-in-Chief himself. Political Issue Then, of course, state governors began grandstanding… and the whole spectacle soon became a sordid political issue. The Democrats were determined to show that Trump was cruel and incompetent, even though he had mostly gone along with the experts’ crackpot advice. The Republicans were afraid to contradict the experts… and couldn’t come up with an alternative anyway. And the result was yet another god-awful debacle, a health crisis made worse by the feds, the media, politics… and the experts themselves. At least the World Health Organization seems to be coming to its senses. Regards, Bill P.S. I have been wrong about some things... and right about some others. I was right, for example, about the Japanese stock market crash… the dot-com bust… the collapse of the housing bubble in 2008. In my last book, Win-Win or Lose, which came out just last year, I can't say I foresaw the global pandemic... but I came close: “Something always happens that the insiders can’t control… [like] lethal pandemics.” I believe that my book is now more important than ever. Because many of the events I saw coming are now happening with frightening speed. Go here to learn more about what I see coming – and to get your own copy of what will most likely be my LAST book. Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@rogueeconomics.com. FEATURED READS What History Teaches Us About Socialism Over the last few months, as the coronavirus crisis ravaged the world’s economies, politics, and societies, dear readers expressed concern over the shift to socialist ideas. In his last book, Bill unpacks both the history behind socialism and its modern ties, explaining why it’s what he calls a win-lose deal… How to Play the Coming Gold Rally Regular Diary readers know Bill is a longtime goldbug. And it seems to be catching on. Gold’s value has rocketed 29% since mid-March. If you want more guidance on how to play the gold rally, look no further than Bill’s friend and colleague, legendary gold investor Doug Casey… MAILBAG Dear readers are thankful for Bill’s Argentine adventure stories… I feel like I know Bill, his family, and acquaintances personally after reading his columns for so many years. His advice and insights are a treasure. But most of all, I am so grateful for his willingness to share the adventures of his family and friends with his readers. I don't take investment advice from anyone, since I feel like I can make enough mistakes on my own. So, all this has been a gift, perhaps one of the best that I have received in recent years. In Frost's (approximate) words, Bill has taken the road less followed. And we are all enriched by his travels. I thank Bill and the rest of you with all my heart. – Gary Just keep on writing about your experiences in San Martín, your home away from home. Many things you write about remind me of some of my youth, without electricity, no indoor toilets, only horses to work with, and basically living off the small acres. Thanks. Best wishes for a safe return. – Dick S. Forgive us for being so prosaic, but the truth is that we never get enough of your slice(s) of life from around the world. Your financial analysis is usually right on the money, as it were, but the observations of life outside our normal realms seems more relevant, and important, than ever. Many thanks… – Jamie L. Have Bill’s stories from Argentina enriched your life, as they have Gary’s? Are Bill’s observations more important now than ever, as Jamie believes? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com. 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