Predictors for experiencing psychological distress in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic included a person’s likelihood of having a prior psychiatric diagnosis, loneliness, and stress related to social distancing, according to a new large longitudinal study published in Nature Mental Health. The study was conducted by researchers from the National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health and the National Institute of Mental Health and funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Intramural Research Program.

Determining the effect that the COVID-19 pandemic had on mental health has been challenging and results from past studies have been mixed because of the variance in pre-existing risk, disease impact, and public policy across individuals, time, and locations. This study involved longitudinal, within-person analyses, which compared changes at regular intervals over time both within and across individuals, to identify whether pandemic-related changes affected mental health over time. The research helped clarify the relationships among psychiatric vulnerability (likelihood of having a psychiatric diagnosis), loneliness, social distancing policies, social isolation, and mental health during the pandemic.

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