Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my baseline team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes.

Projected Offensive Plays – (25th)

Projected Passing TDs – 23.8 (22nd)

Projected Rushing TDs – 19.1 (12th)

Notable coaching changes:

• Hired Mike LaFleur as offensive coordinator
• Promoted Chris Shula to defensive coordinator

The Rams had to rework the coaching staff after seeing a number of coaches poached this offseason. In addition to new offensive and defensive coordinators, Sean McVay will be working with a new special teams coordinator, offensive assistant, pass game coordinator, quarterbacks coach, assistant offensive line coach, game management coordinator, inside linebackers coach, and defensive line coach.

I have no way of knowing how much, if at all, these changes might impact McVay's operation. Clearly, the Atlanta Falcons believed enough in Raheem Morris, Zac Robinson, and company as individual coaches to turn the keys to the company over to the former McVay helpers. It's possible that the changes might be felt in a tangible way. If considering which teams overachieved relative to expectations in 2023, the Rams have to be near the very top. If the infrastructure is diminished in any way, it could result in regression from 2023 to 2024.

Notable offensive line changes

• Let center Coleman Shelton walk in free agency
• Signed guard Jonah Jackson
• Drafted a center in Round 6 and a guard in Round 7

L.A.'s offensive line was at the heart of this team's surprising resurgence. Left tackle Alaric Johnson was an undrafted free agent who had little experience through two seasons and then held down the fort in an admirable way in his first starting opportunity. The Rams traded for Kevin Dotson on the cheap in training camp, and he finished 2023 with the second-best PFF grade of any guard. Dotson hadn't posted a grade higher than 70 in three seasons with the Steelers, but the former fourth-round pick graded out as L.A.'s best lineman in 2023.

Those two performances truly came out of nowhere, and as a result, I have no idea what to make of this line. If the performances from Johnson and Dotson are sustainable, this unit could be top-five. We could just see Kyren Williams and this line bully opponents in the run game again in 2024. Jonah Jackson has been an effective run blocker for the Detroit Lions, and L.A. gave him $31 million guaranteed with up to $54 million available over three years. This line could be even better than last year!

The Rams elevated their man/gap concept rush rate from 30% (28th) in 2022 to 54% (3rd) in 2023. McVay's move to more "duo" running and less zone-blocked runs was a perfect recipe for success for Williams and this offensive line. If you're unfamiliar with duo runs, this link should take you to the moment where Nate Tice describes offensive line action on duo runs, why he expects duo to continue to be used more at the NFL level, and how the Rams made an effective transition to more duo usage in 2023. 

McVay has been reworking his offensive line and creating a unit built specifically for bully-ball man/gap running. That rush scheme is perfect to accentuate Kyren's strengths, too. Williams was way more effective as a man/gap rusher at the collegiate level than as a zone rusher. Among running backs who have been selected in the NFL Draft dating back to 2017, Williams ranked fifth percentile in rushing EPA per snap and ninth percentile in yards per rush on a 244-attempt sample of zone-schemed rushes. He's one of the worst zone rushers to come out of the draft in recent memory. On man/gap runs, Williams ranked 92nd percentile in rushing EPA per snap among 80 running backs who registered at least 75 career man/gap attempts.

Guess who ranked dead last as a man/gap rusher among that group? Cam Akers, who McVay seemed to repeatedly try to replace. Interesting! On the surface level, it seemed as if there was no reason for McVay's apparent disdain for the occasionally explosive rusher out of Florida State. After seeing what McVay did in the run game in 2023 (fifth in rush success rate, one of eight teams with a positive rushing EPA), what do we think?

Kyren Williams was the league's premier workhorse RB in 2023. And the Rams really leaned into him and the bully-ball offensive approach when in scoring distance.

Williams (82%) and Christian McCaffrey (80%) were the only two backs with a snap rate of 80% or higher. He was one of seven backs to run a route on at least half of the offense's dropbacks. The FantasyPoints Data Suite's expected Fantasy points model only had CMC (20.0) with a higher Fantasy point per game expectation than Williams (19.4) in 2023.

What type of workload can we expect from Williams in 2024? I've been projecting Williams as if he's going to again work as the key cog in L.A.'s offense. But might the rookie Blake Corum sub in more than I'm expecting? Brett Kollman of the Bootleg Football Podcast said he wouldn't be surprised if the two backs finished within 20 carries of each other's total by season end!

Depending on what percentage of the rushing volume Williams actually ends up with, we could absolutely see him vault back into the top-three discussion among Fantasy running backs. Williams doesn't bring the receiving upside that Breece Hall or CMC do, but he could challenge Bijan Robinson from an overall workload standpoint and his offense may produce more scoring opportunities. The Rams sit at 11th in rushing yards and touchdowns in my projections.

With a 60% share of the rushing attempts and touchdowns, Williams projects for 279 PPR points. That would have placed him as the RB4 in 2023. In this scenario, Corum projects for 25% of the rush attempts and 23% of the rushing TDs. The floor projection that I created for Williams -- a worst-case usage scenario, assuming he remains healthy -- is 50% of the rush attempts and just 45% of the rushing touchdowns with Corum (who excelled in short-yardage situations at Michigan) taking on a 35% rush share and 38% of the rushing TDs. In this scenario, Williams still projects for 242.9 PPR points. That point total would have placed as Fantasy's RB10 in 2023.

The top of the range of outcomes for Williams is really out of control. It's basically just exactly what we saw last year from a usage perspective but in an improved Rams offense. If Cooper Kupp is healthy and the line is improved, this offense has the ability to be one of the absolute best in the league. Last year, Williams joined CMC as the only two backs to average more than 20 PPR points per game.

Currently, the Rams are projected for the 12th most points. That's based off of Vegas lookahead lines, I don't modify those projected point totals at all. If I bump L.A. to the same projected point total as the Cincinnati Bengals (sixth overall) and give Williams the workload that he held in 2023 (65% of rush attempts and rushing touchdowns), his projected point total climbs to 296. That doesn't touch CMC's 391 points from 2023, but it would have finished above every other RB. That 300+ point upside is really only accessible to a handful of backs. Typically, 80+ targets are required to access it, but I see a path for Williams to get there through touchdown upside. Unlike other workhorse running backs (Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Derrick Henry), Williams could face no competition for red zone rushing opportunities in his offense. That's what we saw in 2023. If the Rams grabbed Corum as an insurance pick rather than a backfield complement, and Williams fills the role that he thrived in last year, he may be one of the most valuable Fantasy players at any position.

I hear some speculate that Nacua won't match last year's usage if Cooper Kupp rebounds in 2024. I get the sentiment, it is not lost on me just what a black hole a healthy Kupp was when operating as L.A.'s target vacuum. I just want to make sure that we are not understating just how impressive and unprecedented what Nacua just showed us was. Not relative to expectations. I'm not calling his rookie season unprecedented because he was a fifth-round pick. It was unprecedented for any player of his age, ever.

When both Nacua and Kupp were on the field together in 2023, Nacua was still the clear WR1 in L.A.'s offense.

Nacua's rookie season target per route run rate even with Kupp on the field was elite.

Now, to be fair, Aiyuk draws targets significantly deeper down the field than Nacua. He has not come close to sniffing 26.8%, though. Aiyuk's career best is 24%. Chase's career-best is 26%, and that came in 2022 on a shorter aDOT than Nacua's. Wilson's rate hasn't been above 25% in either of his first two seasons. We're focusing on targets specifically because that's the closest we can come to isolating a WR from his QB play. Targets are still heavily influenced by coaching and QB play, but not nearly as much as production metrics that are so heavily reliant on competent QB play.

Nacua demanded target volume at an elite rate as a rookie, even while sharing the field with Matthew Stafford's breakfast buddy. He did exactly what we saw him do at the collegiate level when healthy, Nacua won at all levels of the field and constantly provided his QB with a reliable target.

The unknown here is Kupp's health. He apparently battled through a litany of injuries, how much did that impact the target distribution?

Kupp's decline in play, whether due to health or age, is clearly represented in his 2023 data. His performance vs. man coverage has appeared to be on the decline in each of the past two seasons, and his ESPN Open Score tells a similar story -- Kupp has struggled to win one one-on-one matchups and create separation.

The Rams attempted to work around Kupp's limitations by scripting him more quick-hitting targets as the pre-snap motion man. When not used that way and asked to win on his own, Kupp rarely did.

Maybe Kupp bounces back! Even if he were to return to 80-90% of the player we have seen at his peak, I still am not so sure that Kupp would cut into Nacua's targets in a meaningful way. We've seen both Kupp and Robert Woods produce top-12 Fantasy results in this offense. No disrespect to Bobby Trees, but Nacua presents a higher upside outlook than he ever did, and Kupp's almost certainly not the same player that he was during his run with Woods as a teammate. I can reasonably project both players to fill a high-volume role with Nacua's efficiency allowing him to remain in the top-10 Fantasy WR discussion.

And there are several paths to upside, too! He could simply take a step forward in Year 2. The offense could exceed expectations and produce more passing touchdowns than last year. Nacua was one of seven receivers to score 280+ PPR points in 2023. The other six averaged 11 touchdowns as a group, with A.J. Brown's seven being the lowest total. Nacua only had six. There's definitely room for him to again finish as a top-five Fantasy WR, even with Kupp returning to form. 

I spent a good portion of today's newsletter fixated on Nacua because he's the Ram you have to feel the most conviction in casting a bet on. You can justify gambling on Kupp because he doesn't cost you a Round 1 selection. Even Kyren Williams can sometimes be found at the Round 2-3 turn. Nacua is almost certainly going to cost you a top-12 selection to acquire. I believe that he's worth it. I am psyched for Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2024. I have Nico Collins projected to put up 1,500+ yards. Drake London is likely going to fill the "Puka Nacua" role in Atlanta's offense, of course I'm excited for his potential. I'm drafting Nacua ahead of all of them.

You can find my rankings on SportsLine!

The L.A. player who I want to mention is Colby Parkinson. The Rams gave him $15.5 million of guaranteed money. I'm expecting Parkinson to play a full-time role, and we've seen the L.A. tight end be productive in Fantasy before. I'm only projecting Parkinson for a 12.5% target share, and that's still enough for him to sit as the TE16 in my projections. He and Demarcus Robinson are free in Fantasy drafts, and the two are projected to play meaningful roles in what could be one of the best offenses in the NFL.

I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July and into the first week of August! Tuesday, we will be covering the San Francisco 49ers. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way.