Lowest Builder Confidence Since 2014

What a difference 4 months make! In April, the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) recorded a Housing Market Index (aka "builder confidence") of 77.0. While that was off the recent peak, it was still higher than anything else before the pandemic going all the way back to 1998, and the 2nd highest pre-pandemic level since record keeping began in the mid 80's. Homebuilding headwinds are well known at this point. They include things like shortages of materials and labor, but those factors alone weren't enough to put much of a dent in confidence. It wasn't until they were joined by a rapidly rising rate environment colliding with 2 years of record-setting price appreciation that confidence really began to plummet. In and of itself, price appreciation isn't necessarily a bad thing for homebuilding. If it's moderate and stable, it can actually contribute in a positive way. But 2 straight years of 20% price appreciation had already taken a toll on affordability even before 2022's rate spike. When rates jumped at one of the fastest paces on record in the first half of the year, it added up to rapid cooling of what had been an arguably unhealthy frenzy of homebuying demand. A vast majority of builders cited the rate spike as having the biggest impact on buyer demand. Unsurprisingly, the portion of the homebuilder confidence index tracking present-day buyer traffic is leading the way to long-term lows. Whereas the overall headline (which includes things like the 6 month outlook and present level of home sales) is still more than 4 points above 2014's lows, the buyer traffic component is only 1 point higher--effectively back to 2012's levels.

August 15, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Lowest Builder Confidence Since 2014 What a difference 4 months make! In April, the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) recorded a Housing Market Index (aka "builder confidence") of 77.0. While that was off the recent peak, it was still higher than anything else befo... (read more) MBS Commentary Strong Start Reinforcing Lower Range Ceiling The previous week ended with bonds on the run and yields threatening to break up and over the 2.85% technical level. That breakout was somewhat inconclusive by Friday afternoon as a modest rally resulted in levels of 2.849% at the 3pm CME ... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower to Begin The Week After rising above 6% in June and falling briefly below 5% by August 1st, mortgage rates have been calming down and staying slightly flatter in the big picture. Last week's highest levels were seen on Thursday afternoon or Friday morning depend... (read more) Rob Chrisman Capital Markets, TPO, CRM, AI Products; Bloomberg and Wells' Correspondent Florida is the source of a sizeable percentage of home loans and fine lenders, as well as plenty of “Florida Man” stories. (Don’t read if easily offended.) I head to Orlando this morning, where (unlike this week’s rain and lightning) there are an ave... (read more) Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower to Begin The Week 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.25% -0.08% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 5.25% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 4.58% -0.07 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 4.68% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.68% -0.02 0.00 5/1 ARM 5.52% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 4.75% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 8/15 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 4.58% -0.07% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 5.30% -0.40 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 4.45% -0.38 0.80 5/1 Yr. ARM 4.19% -0.31 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/7 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 5.74% -0.08 0.61 15 Yr. Fixed 4.95% +0.07 0.67 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.32% +0.01 0.43 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/27 MBS / Treasuries Strong Start Reinforcing Lower Range Ceiling UMBS 30YR 4.0 99.89 +0.14 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.0 99.89 +0.14 UMBS 4.5 101.17 +0.11 GNMA 4.0 100.80 +0.14 GNMA 4.5 101.59 +0.03 Pricing as of: 8/15 5:41PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 2.7932 -0.0489 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.195 -0.056 5 YR Treasury 2.907 -0.058 7 YR Treasury 2.862 -0.053 10 YR Treasury 2.793 -0.049 30 YR Treasury 3.104 -0.011 Pricing as of: 8/15 5:41PM EST Latest Video Markets are misunderstanding the Fed's inflation response, says former New ... We'll have to continue raising rates unless there's a period of sustained i... The 2pm Bond Report - August 12, 2022 The 9am Bond Report - August 15, 2022 Around the Web CNBC Homebuilders say U.S. is in a 'housing recession' as sentiment turns negative Bloomberg Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated Calculated Risk Blog Housing Inventory August 15th Update: Up 30.3% Year-over-year Eye on Housing Building Materials Prices Increase in July as Concrete Surges Reuters Stocks pause as faltering China knocks oil Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 28% Year-over-year; Inventory growth is slowing CNBC Fed's Barkin says rate increases need to continue until inflation holds at 2% CNBC Ron Insana: The Fed may have retired 'transitory' to soon to describe inflation Eye on Housing Decline in Single-Family Permits in June 2022 Reuters U.S. inflation outlook brightens as import prices drop, consumer sentiment rises Calculated Risk Blog Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy CNBC This was a good week for inflation numbers, but whether it can last is the big question CNBC Treasury yields tick lower as investors digest previous week's data

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