Stronger Bonds, Before and After (And Regardless of) Economic Data Bonds were stronger overnight with 10yr yields hitting roughly 4.25% even before this morning's economic data came out.  Now at the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields are still at 4.25% and they didn't stray too far from that midpoint in either direction. Data was neither friendly nor unfriendly and there was certainly no discernible reaction.  We're left to chalk up the rally to serendipitous, temporary factors such as month-end trading, holiday weekend position squaring, and the proverbial skids being greased by a light liquidity environment.  It was and always will be the plan to basically ignore market movement on Thanksgiving week and tune back in more attentively during jobs report week (i.e. next week).  NOTE: we are not currently planning on scheduled commentary for this Friday's half day unless something momentous happens.  Bonds will be open until 2pm ET. Econ Data / EventsGDP 2.8 vs 2.8 f'cast Jobless Claims213k vs 216k f'cast Continued Claims1.907m vs 1.910m f'cast Core PCE Q/Q 2.1 vs 2.2 f'cast, 2.8 prev Core PCE M/M0.3 vs  0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev Core PCE Y/Y2.8 vs 2.8 f'cast, 2.7 prev Market Movement Recap09:19 AM moderately stronger overnight and no reaction to 8:30AM data.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5.2bps at 4.253 10:14 AM Modest weakness after PCE data.  MBS still up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.8bps at 4.268 but up from lows of 4.24 02:31 PM Near the best levels now.  MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 6.6bps at 4.24
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November 27, 2024
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MBS Commentary
Stronger Bonds, Before and After (And Regardless of) Economic Data Bonds were stronger overnight with 10yr yields hitting roughly 4.25% even before this morning's economic data came out.  Now at the 3pm ... (read more)
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MBS / Treasuries