Lutnick says “no recession”

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The million-dollar question is: do you believe him?

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March 10, 2025

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Although I know for many traders out there, it’s NOT all that happy.

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On the bright side, there’s one person who isn’t too concerned: new Commerce Secretary and former Cantor Fitzgerald chairman Howard Lutnick (pictured below):

Someone asked Lutnick whether he feared a recession, and his answer is fairly illuminating for what the Trump Administration thinks it’s doing right now:

“Absolutely not… there’s going to be no recession in America… What there’s going to be is global tariffs are going to come down because President Trump has said, ‘You want to charge us 100%? We’re going to charge you 100%.’ You know what they say? They say, ‘No, no, no, no, no, don’t charge us 100%. We’ll bring ours down.’”

Lutnick went on to add:

“We’ll unleash America out to the world. Grow our economy in a way we’ve never grown before. You are going to see over the next two years the greatest set of growth coming from America as Americans. You saw it, 1.3 trillion of new investment coming into America that — think of all those jobs, and remember, each trillion of investment in America is 1% of growth GDP. So, Donald Trump is bringing growth to America. I would never bet on recession. No chance.”

Now, there are two ways to read what Lutnick is saying:

The uncharitable reading would be that he’s tilting at windmills, braying before the storm, etc.—that merely by suggesting a recession is impossible, he’s made it that much more likely.

The superstitious reader in me wants to feel that way.

But to give him a fair judging, I think we need to consider what he’s saying by reading between the lines a little more carefully.

Last week, I talked a lot about how Trump would not have the stomach for long-term market losses, meaning his commitment to his tariff policy might not be as strong as some believe.

Lutnick is hinting at something similar here, stressing that the goal of our tariffs is to lower other countries’ tariffs.

If that is the goal, then Trump doesn’t need to outlast the markets—he just needs to outlast foreign leaders. And some of them have shown a willingness to cave pretty quickly.

The other half of what Lutnick is saying is even more important: that the Trump Administration is fixated on growing our way out of debt and recession.

Companies like Apple (AAPL), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and more have already announced HUGE investments in America during Trump’s first six weeks, and Lutnick suggests there will be more to come.

Give them credit: if Trump forces foreign trading partners to lower their tariffs, lowers his own in turn, and unleashes a wave of massive investments in America, he certainly will revive the markets and the economy very quickly.

The $1,000,000 question is whether he can actually deliver on that.

Lutnick certainly thinks he can… but where do you stand?

You have to weigh your own risks and belief in the system to answer that question. In the meantime, listen to our experts and attend their training sessions—they can make a world of difference.

Stephen Ground

Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub