By Michael Shepherd - May 31, 2022 Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up.
Good morning from Augusta. There are two weeks until Maine's June 14 primaries. We are collecting your political mailers through November.
What we're watching today
Two longshots should be a part of Maine's two biggest 2022 races. Here's what it means. Friday brought a bit of a surprise ahead of a key deadline for unenrolled candidates to make Maine's November ballot. Gubernatorial candidate Sam Hunkler, a Beals physician, will be on it alongside Gov. Janet Mills and former Gov. Paul LePage, the only ones who can win the Democratic and Republican nominations in the June 14 primary.
That may not be all in terms of independent longshots. Tiffany Bond, a lawyer and one of the two also-ran candidates who forced a ranked-choice runoff between Rep. Jared Golden of the 2nd District and former Rep. Bruce Poliquin in 2018, said she has enough signatures to make the ballot alongside the Democratic congressman and his Republican rival in November. That is still subject to approval by the secretary of state's office.
The first thing to remember is that the races will be decided by different voting methods. Ranked-choice voting does not apply to general elections for state office, so the winner of the gubernatorial race simply must win the most votes. The voting method will apply to the Golden-Poliquin race if a third candidate makes the ballot and nobody wins a majority of first-round votes.
Ranked-choice voting advanced in Maine as a partial response to LePage's plurality victory in 2010, although it has long been common for governors here to win without majorities. Independent Eliot Cutler overtook the Democratic nominee to nearly beat LePage in that race before receding also-ran status in 2014 in a polarizing race between LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud. (Cutler is now facing child pornography charges after being arrested in March.)
Hunkler is no Cutler, the latter of whom was a wealthy lawyer who spent a career in business and politics before his first campaign. The 2022 candidate is an unknown who largely gathered the 4,000 signatures needed to make the ballot himself. His campaign website indicates a progressive bent but is full of questions rather than stances. He is not taking donations and encourages supporters to ask him to speak at homes and events or make signs. That is similar to Bond, who advocates for charitable donations.
Much has been made about how ranked-choice voting affected Golden's victory in 2018, especially since Poliquin led in the first round before supporters of the eliminated Bond plus another longshot flipped the race in Golden's direction on later choices. Despite the clear math, Poliquin called the voting method a "scam" and LePage wrote "stolen election" on the certification of Golden's victory. Of course, we cannot re-run the election to see whether Golden still would have won if ranked-choice voting simply was not in play.
The additions of Hunkler and Bond to these races may lead to some anxiety among both Democrats and Republicans, respectively, given their history in crowded races. But all of the major candidates here are known quantities, which should make for a less hospitable environment for longshot hopefuls who are not seeking huge platforms. That said, Mills and LePage have polled closely so far and any other candidate in either race makes for a little more uncertainty on the road to Election Day even if they woo few votes.
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What we're reading
— A wave of federal funding and increased state spending at the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention has grown the agency sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic. The cyclical nature of public health spending has advocates worried there may not be so much money for the next pandemic.
— A Calais woman who was sexually abused by her mother's then-boyfriend as a child is pushing for a new law that would establish zones near schools and parks in every Maine municipality where sex offenders could not live. There is no evidence that these types of restrictions make people safer.
— The man whom Loring was named after is among more than 100 Mainers who received the Medal of Honor. Here are four of their stories.
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Follow along today
— Mills will be endorsed by Maine Conservation Voters in her reelection race against LePage at an 11 a.m. event at the Bangor City Forest. The endorsement is one of the first of the 2022 election cycle, but it's no surprise coming from a reliably Democratic-aligned group.
— Some Maine lawmakers are in Augusta on Tuesday for committee hearings. The judiciary panel will talk to the chairs of a committee that reviews police shootings and other uses of deadly force at 9 a.m. The budget panel will approve a financial order at 10 a.m. The commission studying a paid family and medical leave program will talk to an actuarial consultant at 10:30 a.m.
— Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives are expected to advance a gun-control package through a committee on Thursday. Punchbowl News has details on the group of bills. It is not likely to pass the Senate, where a group that includes Susan Collins of Maine is working on a limited compromise measure and will meet on Tuesday, according to The Hill.
