By Michael Shepherd - Oct. 13, 2022
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📷 Former Gov. Paul LePage talks with Linda Sheridan of Levant as he pumps her gas at Dysart's on Broadway in Bangor during a campaign stop on May 18, 2022. (BDN photo by Linda Coan O'Kresik)

Good morning from Augusta. There are 26 days until Election Day.

What we're watching today

Costs are still the top electoral issue, but Republicans have little time to pin it on Democrats. Things looked grim for Democrats in the spring, when Republicans down to the local level were hammering away at President Joe Biden at the outset of a major fuel price spike. Since then, Democratic fortunes have improved from poor to middling nationally, with abortion rights moving into a secondary slot in polling on the issues that matter most to voters.

It is leading to a fascinating final month in which Republicans own the top issue but are behind in polls and prognostications in the biggest Maine races. Gov. Janet Mills has held polling leads on former Gov. Paul LePage, while CNalysis, a forecasting site rating control of the Maine Legislature as a toss-up, made changes this week in Democrats' direction. National experts are split on the reelection case for Rep. Jared Golden of the 2nd District.

The economy has polled as Maine's top issue, with 39 percent in a recent Emerson College poll deeming it so. While more than two-thirds of voters who rank that issue highest are voting for LePage, Democrats owned the secondary issues of abortion and threats to democracy by higher margins. That survey gave Mills a double-digit lead. Many observers expect a tighter margin.

Therein lies the issue for Republicans. Another recent survey from the polling arm of the progressive Maine People's Alliance found that 40 percent of Mainers blamed high costs on federal officials but only 2.6 percent blamed state officials. That may indicate that costs are more potent in the 2nd District race between Golden and former Rep. Bruce Poliquin, a Republican.

LePage and Poliquin are addressing this in different ways, but their solutions would have a mix of different effects. The former governor said he would suspend taxes and fees put into effect since the pandemic began. As the Maine Monitor has reported, there are relatively few. He has criticized the $850 relief checks given out by Mills and the Legislature, saying it would have been better spent by going directly to fuel dealers to cap heating oil costs.

House Republicans' post-election agenda opens the door to future reductions to Medicare and Social Security, something the party has long billed as a way to shore up the program. This was a key issue in the 2018 election between Golden and Poliquin, who has underscored he wants no changes for current enrollees. Poliquin has blamed Democrats for the cost issue, often in vague terms, as he looks to rally Republicans in a conservative district.

The party only has a limited time to stick these issues to Democrats. At the state level, they will be doing to at a steep cash disadvantage with Mills outraising LePage. Democrats lead the outside spending war in that race and are dominating it in legislative races. They also had a slight edge in 2nd District ads during a recent two-week period, according to the Wesleyan Media Project, but Poliquin is poised for more air support down the stretch.

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News and notes

📷 The Shawmut Dam spans the Kennebec River between Fairfield and Benton on Sept. 15, 2021. (AP photo by Robert F. Bukaty)

🐟 The battle over a dam persists with a procedural step.

◉ The Maine Department of Marine Resources issued a statement on Wednesday saying it was "inviting" the owner of the Shawmut Dam to submit a new application for a key water quality permit. The regulator's official step was to formally reject an application ahead of an Oct. 18 deadline to act.

◉ The Mills administration put forward a plan in early 2021 that would have removed this dam and three others. She walked back from a hard line and said she would protect a Skowhegan paper mill that relies on the dam, but LePage has raised the specter of removal absent official steps to end the dispute.

◉ The state said it rejected the application because of new fish-passage information filed before a federal regulator. That move does not change current operations. But the owner, an offshoot of Brookfield Renewable U.S., called it "disappointing" and said it could provide another year of uncertainty.

📮 Republicans catch up a bit on absentee ballots.

◉ Democrats had nearly a 4 to 1 advantage over Republicans in early absentee ballot requests ahead of Election Day, according to data from Secretary of State Shenna Bellows' office as of Tuesday at 3 p.m.

◉ That is still a big edge, but it is down from the 5-to-1 lead the majority party had last week. Democrats had still requested 59 percent of ballots compared with 16 percent for Republicans who are more likely to vote in person.

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What we're reading

📁 At a lobstering rally, Golden agreed with LePage and broke with Mills to urge the state to file its own lawsuit against federal restrictions. Attorney General Aaron Frey said such a move would be "legally insignificant."

🎤 Rep. Chellie Pingree, a Democrat from the 1st District, said Maine would be "Alabama tomorrow" on abortion if Republicans control Augusta in her first debate with longshot GOP challenger Ed Thelander. He apologized for rally comments likening lobster rules to rape.

🚮 The investment firm working with 115 Maine cities and towns to revive a Hampden trash processor says it has found a respected operator.

🚰 Three coastal schools have switched to bottled water after high levels of lead were found in drinking water.

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