But EOH's raise looks set to succeed

Good Morning Voornaam,

Are you ready to meet Trive? In the latest Ghost Stories episode, CEO Travis Robson joined me to explain why this multinational trading group is investing heavily in South Africa. Listen to the podcast here to find out more>>>

SENS is finally getting juicy this year

I was right about the EOH share price, which has tasted about as good for shareholders as De Ruyter's poisoned coffee at Eskom. Moving on from cyanide to happiness, there are investors who are keen to jump in and support the rights offer that will get EOH out of balance sheet jail.

This is where I was wrong. I wasn't sure that there would be much support for this raise. After many wrongs made a rights offer, EOH has another shot at survival. Will it flourish? I'm not putting my money in to find out.

Even against a backdrop of tigers on the loose in Gauteng and strong memories of watching Jumanji as a kid, SENS still managed to be exciting yesterday. Aside from Kibo Energy wanting to make synthetic oil, I also used Schroder as an excuse to explain why property values can go down during inflation. Ninety One's AUM was flat in the last quarter, so I used that as an excuse to explain why asset managers are high beta businesses.

But it was right at the end of the day when the most interesting bomb dropped: wholesale management changes at Spar and the appointment of a familiar name or two to the board.

It's all here for you to enjoy in Ghost Bites>>>

Morgan Stanley: IP-oh dear

Morgan Stanley has released its latest quarterly results. The US banks are always worth keeping an eye on, whether you are invested in that sector or not. They are a terrific barometer for activity in the US, particularly in the investment banking side of the businesses.

We focus there, where revenue in the fourth quarter has fallen by 49% year-on-year. This isn't because the bankers finally staged a coup and refused to work 16-hour days. No, this is beca use IPOs and fresh capital issuances have all but disappeared.

This is the crazy thing with financial markets: at the top of the cycle, companies raise money even when they don't need it. This is because when things turn for the worse, it almost doesn't matter whether there is a good reason for the capital raise or not. When investors are bearish, it becomes much harder to raise capital.

Does this make sense?

Not really, as investor demand should be higher when the share prices are lower.

Are markets rational?

No. We know this.

The rand is lagging

Lagging, not lagging in the Afrikaans context. Nobody is laughing. When emerging market currencies do well, we don't seem to be following. Treasury ONE thinks this is because of the electricity crisis, which certainly makes sense. This means that when emerging market currencies do badly, we will likely do even worse.

If you own an oil field, you'll be pleased to know that Brent Crude was up 2% in response to Chinese growth in Q4. It's more likely that you own a car, so I'll just stop there with the bad news.

If you still want to attend the TreasuryONE webinar this morning, you need to move quickly. It's scheduled for 9am and you can still register here>>>

Lend me your ears

Aside from the new Ghost Stories episode with Travis Robson of Trive, there are two other shows that you should make time for:

  • Ghost Wrap, your weekly whirlwind update of the biggest news on the JSE, brought to you by Mazars. Get the latest on Steinhoff, Mondi, Telkom, MTN, Tharisa and Murray & Roberts right here>>>
  • In Episode 107 of Magic Markets, we were joined by Craig Antonie of AnBro Capital Investments to recap 2022 and look ahead to 2023, particularly for growth stocks that took such a hammering last year. Listen to it here>>>

With that, I leave you to navigate the darkness and the wild tigers on this fine Wednesday.

Ghost Bites (EOH | Kibo Energy | Ninety One | Schroder REIT | Spar)

EOH's rights offer is fully underwritten. Kibo looks to synthetic oil. Ninety One's AUM is flat for the quarter. Schroder's property values are lower. There are wholesale changes to the Spar board.

 

Travis Robson is the CEO of Trive South Africa. In this Ghost Stories podcast, he explains how this group is bringing a more in-depth trading experience to the South African market.

 

Ghost Wrap is back! This week, we deal with Steinhoff updates on portfolio companies, Mondi's deal in Italy, Telkom and rain giving up, MTN in trouble in Ghana, Tharisa dealing with rainfall and Murray & Roberts releasing the Bombela circular.

 

Craig Antonie of AnBro Capital Investments joins us to recap a truly awful year for growth stocks. Of course, the real focus was on what might happen going forward.

 
 

You should expect us in your inbox Monday – Friday. If you don’t receive an email, please check your spam, or junk folder and “move us” into your primary inbox to ensure you get it each morning.



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