March Market Keys to Watch

Price action: March soybeans rose 21 1/2 cents to $15.48 3/4. May soybeans gained 21 3/4 cents at $15.44. Both contracts closed near the session highs and closed at contract high closes. March soybean meal rose $6.60 at $497.70 and May meal was up $6.70 at $481.60. March bean oil rose 126 points to 62.77 cents and May bean oil gained 120 points at 62.95 cents, near the session high, hitting a four-week high.

Fundamental analysis: The soy complex today got a bullish weekend surprise with a very early frost last Friday and Saturday mornings in Argentina. World Weather Inc. reported frost occurred in portions of Argentina Saturday morning after similar conditions occurred briefly Friday in southwestern areas. Crop damage was significant, and the impact was greatest on soybeans, said the forecaster. “A killing freezing was not suspected, but leaf damage may have been great enough to impact the more immature crops and their production potential.”

The fully bullish technical postures in soybeans and soybean meal continue to invite speculative, chart-based buying interest in those markets. The chart posture for soybean oil futures have also improved lately.

USDA this morning reported U.S. soybean export inspections of 1.578 MMT for week ended Feb. 16, down 115,222 MT (58.0 million bu.) from the previous week. Cumulative inspections are around 3.5% ahead of last year’s pace.

Technical analysis: The soybean futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A four-month-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $16.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $15.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $15.46 1/4 and then at $15.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $15.30 and then at $15.25.

The soybean meal futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at $500.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $465.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $485.30 and then at the contract high of $488.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $477.80 and then at last week’s low of $472.10.

Soybean oil futures bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field, but the bulls have momentum. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 66.17 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 58.22 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 63.23 cents and then at 64.00 cents. First support is seen at 62.00 cents and then at today’s low of 61.21 cents.

What to do: Get current with advised cash sales. Be prepared to advance sales.

Hedgers: You have 70% of 2022-crop sold in the cash market. No 2023-crop sales have been advised.

Cash-only marketers: You have 70% of 2022-crop sold. No 2023-crop sales have been advised.