Corn Outlook
30-day outlook: Mid-July is critical to the corn outlook, since scalding conditions during the pollination period could limit the size of the fall harvest. Late June-early July rains over the Corn Belt would greatly diminish the risk of a supply reduction, so it may take another significant shift in the weather pattern to reinvigorate bullish arguments. Confirmation that Friday’s Supreme Court decision will curb the petroleum industry’s need for ethanol would also tend to undercut corn prices.
90-day outlook:Summer weather will obviously be a major factor affecting the corn outlook through the third calendar quarter. Droughty August weather might boost prices significantly, especially if it is seen as reducing harvest prospects for soybeans and sends the soy complex higher. Traders will also be watching corn off-take, especially from the export sector, to see how the recent price decline affects U.S. and global demand for the yellow grain.
