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Corn
USDA last Thursday morning reported U.S. corn export sales of 257,300 MT for the week ended May 4, up from the previous week’s net cancellations and up 11% from the prior four-week average. Sales have been disappointing considering the late-April drop in futures prices. With U.S. corn planting over half done the crop is off to a good start. A large Brazil safrinha crop adds to bearish price prospects. The U.S. dollar index Friday hit a five-week high, adding another negative element for the corn market. At this point it appears a serious weather scare this summer may be the only factor that would give corn prices a solid boost. Charts included below.
Soybeans
A record Brazilian soybean crop coupled with China’s desire to rely less on the U.S. has reduced U.S. soybean export business notably. Though the reduction in export sales and shipments is not completely out of ordinary for this time of year, China has been persistently stating it looks to reduce its reliance on imports. Traders will continue to closely monitor U.S. exports to gauge China’s activity and the overall health of the global economy. Most recently, USDA reported export sales of 62,200 MT for week ended May 2, which was down 79% from the previous week and 68% from the four-week average. Increases were primarily for Indonesia, the Netherlands and Japan. In the same week, shipments during the week were reported at 411,000 MT, down 27% from the previous week and 18% from the four-week average. Top destinations were Indonesia (82,600 MT), China (74,300 MT) and China (72,300 MT). Charts included below.
Wheat
USDA last Thursday reported old-crop U.S. wheat export sales of 26,300 MT, a marketing-year low. Net sales of 333,600 MT were reported for 2023-24. U.S. wheat needs to be more price-competitive on the world market for exports to improve and in turn for sustained price uptrends to be sustained—especially for the beleaguered SRW market. Last week’s surge in the U.S. dollar index to a five-week high won’t help U.S. wheat’s position on the export front. We continue to view any significant price rallies as selling opportunities. Charts included below.
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