Vanguard awaits a "correction" | China's tech bubble goes pop |
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Hi John, here's what you need to know for December 24th in 3:08 minutes.

🎄 The Finimize team are all making their way home for the holidays, wherever that may be: New York, Zürich, Sydney, or Bolton. That means we’ll be taking a break from the newsletter for a few days. So from all of us here at Finimize HQ, we hope you have a delightful Christmas, and we’ll see you on the 30th.

Today's big stories

  1. According to one of the world’s largest investment managers, there’s a 50% chance US stocks fall 10% next year
  2. The eurozone economy’s gotten weaker and weaker throughout 2019 and probably won’t improve much next year, according to Goldman Sachs – Read now
  3. China’s technology industry dragged the country’s stock market into its first major decline for six weeks
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Peaks And Troughs

Peaks And Troughs

What’s Going On Here?

Vanguard – one of the world’s largest investment managers, stewarding almost $6 trillion of investments – warned on Monday that there’s a 50% chance US stocks fall 10% next year (tweet this).

What Does This Mean?

A market decline between 10% and 20% is known as a “correction” – with anything bigger a “bear market”. If Vanguard’s right, investors are currently over-optimistic about 2020: most expect economic growth to accelerate, thanks to the economy-boosting effects of this year’s interest rate cuts and a cooling US-China trade war. Happy campers have snapped up stocks in anticipation: the US market is on track for its biggest annual rise in six years.

But Vanguard cautions that these investors may have gotten ahead of themselves. If economic and company profit growth ends up disappointing, it thinks investors could start selling off newly expensive US stocks en masse – pushing their prices down over 10% on average.

Why Should I Care?

For you personally: The course of true stocks never did run smooth.
Stocks’ values fluctuate – but in the long term, stock markets tend to rise. One way in which far-seeing investors try to take advantage of that without gambling on precisely when to buy is “dollar-cost averaging”. That’s when you invest a set amount every week or month, effectively paying the average price of the stock over time instead of its given price on any one day. If you’re investing the same amount each month, you’ll simply get more bang for your buck when prices go down.

For markets: Looking for entry points.
Vanguard suggests that many US stocks currently appear expensive compared to their expected profits: their “price-to-earnings ratio” is high. While “value” stocks – which appear cheaper compared to their expected earnings – do exist, Vanguard is more minded to keep hold of its cash for now. It reckons investors might want to wait until stock prices come down overall before buying in 2020.

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2/3 Premium Story

Euro Moan

The eurozone economy has weakened throughout the year and, according to a report from investment bank Goldman Sachs, things won’t get much better in 2020 unless a messy Brexit is avoided.
Get the full story in the Finimize app

3/3

Acute Puncture

Acute Puncture

What’s Going On Here?

Investors suffered from a spot of déjà vu on Monday as last year’s pre-Christmas tech stock selloff repeated itself – only this time in China. Investors suffered from a spot of déjà vu…

What Does This Mean?

The Chinese government’s imaginatively named “Big Fund”, which invests heavily in homegrown computer chipmakers, unexpectedly announced over the weekend that it was reducing its stake in three of the largest. The $20 billion fund owns as much as 16% of the tech firms, so freaked-out fellow investors followed suit and sold.

Chinese semiconductor stocks fell 3.5% on Monday, dragging down the overall Chinese market 1.4% in its biggest one-day drop for six weeks. Still, Chinese chipmakers aren’t fried just yet: in October, China launched an even bigger Big Fund to invest another $29 billion in them.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: All your baskets in one egg.
Investment funds are an easy way for investors big and small to spread their money across a pot of different stocks. But the upshot is that many companies are now largely owned by just a handful of funds with considerable power over stock prices. Saudi Aramco is another example: its newly public stock attracted $1 billion of foreign investment last week after it was included in a major emerging markets index of companies, effectively forcing funds tracking the index to buy it.

The bigger picture: Broken china.
Another reason for Monday’s selloff may have been investors’ desire to lock in their 2019 gains ahead of the festive period – a sorely needed holiday, given the prospects for next year. Chinese economic growth is expected to slow in 2020, potentially hitting stocks worldwide. The country’s government is now responding with reduced tariffs on $390 billion worth of overseas goods, including costly pork, as well as plans to help struggling private companies compete with state-owned rivals. That could spur growth – and perhaps help China overtake the US as the world’s biggest economy before the next decade is out.

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💬 Quote of the day

“It’s Christmas Eve. It’s the one night of the year when we all act a little nicer, we smile a little easier, we cheer a little more. For a couple of hours out of the whole year, we are the people that we always hoped we would be.”

– Frank Cross (a selfish TV exec from 1988 comedy Scrooged)
Tweet this
🤔 Q&A

“What’s the difference between a company’s earnings and its earnings per share?”

– Josh in Florida, USA

“A company’s earnings per share is simply the amount of profit it makes in a given period (a.k.a. its earnings) divided by the number of shares the company has. For example, if Finimize had $100 of profit and 1,000 shares outstanding, its earnings per share would be $0.10 ($100/1,000). It’s a closely watched figure among investors, but it can be heavily influenced by companies buying back their own shares – which reduces the number of shares in circulation and therefore boosts earnings per share, even if total earnings haven’t increased.”

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