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| Wednesday, December 18, 2024 |
| It's Wednesday, which means it's matchup day for FFT Newsletter readers! In case you missed it: Dan and I just finished recording this week's Beyond the Box Score Part Two! |
| Week 16 Matchup Notes |
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Will L.A.'s defense rebound on TNF?
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| The Chargers are coming off of an embarrassing 40-17 loss to the Bucs in Week 15, you can listen to Dan's thoughts on L.A.'s defensive performance in that game if you follow this link. |
| We've now seen L.A.'s defense give up 30 or more points in three of the past five games, and yet the Broncos carry a Vegas-implied point total of only 19.75 points into this matchup. That number really surprised me. Denver's offense has put points on the board lately. Well, the team has put points on the board, a lot of the points have been a result of the defense being awesome. |
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| To provide context on how the actual offense has performed in those game, Denver's offensive EPA (expected points added) per play and success rate (gaining half of the yardage required for a first-down on first or second down = a success, while converting a first down on third or fourth down = a success) over the past four games both would rank below the league average over the course of the full season. In other words, this offense hasn't actually been very efficient on a micro-level as of late. I find that especially noteworthy when viewed in conjunction with relatively inviting matchups across that four-game sample. |
| Maybe Vegas is onto something. I haven't been particularly impressed with Denver's offense outside of big plays. The run game has completely fallen apart. |
| Still, I think that I feel less confidence in L.A.'s defense than I do in Denver's offense. The league average pressure rate generated on defense is 34.1%. L.A.'s rate is 33.4% and has dropped below 20% in two of the past four games. Even with Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, this defense has not created pressure at a high rate. Both of those players appear to have taken a step back, statistically, relative to previous seasons. Bosa's pressure rate will mark a new career-low if it doesn't rise before the end of the season. |
| Keeping Bo Nix clean is key |
| Bo Nix has been slightly better overall and way more likely to beat defenses deep when not pressured. When pressured, Nix's deep throw rate is middle of the pack and his accuracy rates are bottom-fourth. When not pressured, those accuracy notes are middle of the pack, and his deep throw rate is near the top. In fact, the only quarterbacks with a higher deep throw rate when not pressured are players who have played partial seasons (Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, etc), it's possible that their rates would drop below Nix's over a larger sample. No QB has more total deep throws from a clean pocket than Nix. |
| Nix is throwing deep more often (relative to the rest of the league) when kept clean, and he's been much more effective as a deep passer when kept clean. When pressured, Nix's accuracy notes on deep passes are among the bottom-five out of 41 qualifiers. When kept clean, he ranks middle of the pack in deep-ball accuracy. |
| Will the Chargers get pressure on Nix? Can L.A.'s defense bounce back? Vegas seems to think so, but I'm not so sure. If the Chargers can't get pressure on Nix, I think that we could see the rookie torch this defense. Starting safety Elijah Molden has not practiced all week with a knee injury. Cornerback Cam Hart has started at times for the Chargers and is in concussion protocol. This defense can be beaten down the field. On throws of 15+ air yards, the Chargers have allowed opponents to rank in the top-half of the league. On throws of 20+ air yards, L.A. has the fourth-highest catchable target rate allowed. |
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| This has been one of the easiest defenses to attack down the field. And the Broncos line has been one of the best at keeping the QB clean. Denver ranks third in pressure allowed over expectation, according to FP Data. |
| The Michael Penix Jr. debut could be a lot of fun! |
| The Falcons only gave him one game of preseason action, and I thought that Penix Jr. looked great in that limited sample. I would have loved to see him more, but we can't ask for much better of a spot to get a longer look at him than in a Week 16 matchup against the Giants of New Jersey. |
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| The Falcons went extremely run-heavy in Week 15, which made it difficult for the pass-catchers to do much for Fantasy purposes. Maybe that changes if Atlanta feels comfortable against a Giants defense missing several key pieces! Maybe the Falcons will prefer to get Penix game reps rather than piling more onto Bijan Robinson's plate. The unknown presents plenty of hypothetical upside for Atlanta's offensive players, especially in this matchup. |
| Will you be getting Strange in Week 16? |
| Brenton Strange has a 38% target per route run rate with Mac Jones at QB and not under pressure, and the Jags have the third-most advantageous pass-blocking matchup grade for Week 16, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite. |
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| Who else is going to draw targets beyond Brian Thomas Jr. for the Jags? |
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| Schematically, the Raiders present neutrally from a coverage standpoint. Opponents have typically not passed deep much against this defense. Vegas ranks bottom-10 in opponent targets going 'out wide,' and above the league average in the percentage of targets that go to the slot, RB, and in-line tight end position. There have been some great TE games against this defense. |
| The most interesting thing that I know about the Vegas defense is that their opponent pass rate over expectation rate is the league's highest -- offenses have attacked through the air at a high rate relative to the expectations on any given play when facing the Raiders. It's possible that we see the Jags lean on the ground game, but if Aidan O'Connell plays and the Raiders (favored by 1.5 points) are able to put points on the board, this could turn into a game with lots of passing for Mac Jones. We saw Strange put up a huge total last week in that type of environment. He's clearly the best available "streamer" at the TE position, in my opinion. |
| Pressure makes diamonds -- Cooper Rush, Rico Dowdle, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton potential Fantasy gems in a shootout? |
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| Dallas vs. Tampa Bay has settled in with the highest over/under on the week (48.5 points), and with just a 3.5-point spread, indications are that a shootout is quite possible. Lately, we've seen both of these offenses put points on the board. Rico Dowdle has been a revelation, Cooper Rush has proved surprisingly serviceable, and CeeDee Lamb has maintained near-elite Fantasy production. With strong offensive line play and supporting cast members like Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks back in action, the Cowboys have been able to keep the ship afloat without Dak Prescott. |
| Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are playing with a ton of confidence right now. The offensive line has been spectacular. I think that the Dallas defense is better than people realize, but this Bucs offense is a lot to deal with at the moment. I think we're going to see points put on the board. |
| One potential path to Fantasy disappointment from this game environment comes through Dallas trying and failing to establish the run. Dan and I laid out why we believe that is a possibility in this week's Beyond the Box Score. If the Cowboys are not able to rush as successfully as we've seen lately, then we could see the Bucs take control and lean on the ground game. Dallas has one of the lowest opponent pass rate over expectation rates -- teams typically choose to lean on the ground game and avoid the pass rush when facing Micah Parsons and the Cowboys. |
| I think that the Cowboys can put the points on the board, though. Even if the run game isn't as effective as it has been lately, I feel pretty good about the Cowboys being able to move the chains with a quick-hitting passing attack. Cooper Rush has the lowest time to throw in the NFL. It's 2.16 seconds! The NFL average is 2.6. The Buccaneers get pressure quickly and often. Todd Bowles' defense has the third-highest blitz rate (38%) on the year and the highest (50%) since the midway point (from Week 10 onward). This blitz-heavy defense ranks 10th in time to pressure (2.49 seconds). That's not close to Rush's time to throw. I'm sure that the Bucs will get to him sometimes, Bowles is quite good at his job. I simply do wonder if Rush's style may slightly offset Tampa's approach. It's hard to pressure a QB when the ball leaves his hand so quickly. |
| Guess who has the lowest pressure rate at the QB position this season? Baker Mayfield! You thought it was gonna be Rush, didn't you? He's second-lowest. Rush takes his name seriously and gets the ball out incredibly quickly, so he's not really affected much by pressure. His time to throw drops to 2.01 seconds when blitzed. |
| Rush has one of the highest passer ratings in the league vs. the blitz! He simply throws to Lamb when he's blitzed, and it usually works. Lamb has accounted for 44% of Rush's targets vs. the blitz. Absurd. |
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| Tampa Bay leads the NFL in Cover-3 usage (47%), which is a single-high zone (with some man concepts - it can be played a variety of ways) which often results in more targets and production for opposing WR1 types. Lamb is that guy, even in his new short-yardage role seemingly designed to accommodate for Rush being in at QB -- in fact, Lamb's target (36%) and yard per route run rate (3.30) when facing Cover-3 with Rush at QB are both much higher than with Dak at QB in 2024. |
| Since the season's halfway point, Tampa's Cover-3 rate is way up (57% - no other team is above 50%).The Bucs have offered single-high safety looks at a hard-to-believe 73% rate. The next-highest rate is 66%, and there are only two teams above 60%. It makes sense, when blitzing half of the time, a defense simply doesn't have as many bodies back to defend as other defenses. |
| I think that this single-high note provides more upside for catch-and-run plays (primarily for Lamb, but for the Cowboys in general), which helps support the idea that Dallas could keep this game competitive and potentially even push it to become fast-paced and high-scoring. |
| So, can we trust Dowdle? Can we trust Rush? Can we potentially even take chances on ancillary pieces of this game such as McMillan, Ferguson, Cade Otton, Rachaad White, or even Cooks? I think it makes sense, if you are in a pinch or playing in deep leagues. The Cowboys secondary is a bit banged-up, and Tampa's has been attackable all year. Both defenses rely on pressuring the QB to disrupt opposing passing games. I'm not sure if that's going to work with two of the quickest releases in the NFL distributing targets for these two offenses! |
| I think you can roll with Adam Thielen again if you have to |
| Arizona has a league-high 63% two-high safety rate since the midway point of the season. This defense keeps everything in front where Budda Baker and the Cardinals deep secondary defenders can scan the field. We've seen the Cardinals allocate additional defensive resources to preventing passes to opposing offense's first reads, and Adam Thielen is Bryce Young's most-frequent first read, but he's not a typical first read option. Most first reads are playing on the perimeter, Thielen is running about 70% of his routes from the slot. With so many short in-breaking routes in his tree, I think we could see Thielen still pile up targets against this defense. |
| Carolina hasn't leaned quite as heavily on Chuba Hubbard as of late, posting a strongly positive pass rate over expectation in three of the past four games. This game has a healthy over/under (46.5 points), and the Panthers are projected to be playing from behind. We may see this turn into a high-volume day for the Carolina pass-catchers. |
| I think that Thielen is the player most-likely to benefit from the way that Arizona's defense presents. The heavy use of two-high safety looks certainly seems like a good note for Thielen. Since Bryce returned, Thielen has accounted for 30% of his targets vs. two-high looks. His 2.72 yard per route run rate vs. two-high during that time is really strong! |
| The Cardinals defense has been susceptible to throws on horizontally-breaking routes, allowing the fifth-highest catchable target rate on such targets: |
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| (Another reminder that the Fantasy Points Data Suite is so cool) |
| Timing-based routes have worked well vs. this zone-heavy coverage scheme. I think that Young and Thielen are capable of exploiting this matchup. |
| Josh Downs also presents an interesting flex option if you need him |
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| Similar to Thielen, Downs is facing a defense that uses a lot of two-high safety coverage schemes and has surrendered easy looks to opposing horizontally-breaking route runners. In fact, no team has a higher opponent catchable target rate than the Titans. Downs has been deadly on those routes. You can see the range that he falls into in terms of route win rate on H-Breaking routes below, courtesy of Fantasy Points Data. |
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| Downs has a massive 43% target per route run rate on H-Breaking routes (down slightly to 39% with Anthony Richardson), and a 37% TPRR against Cover-4 (the scheme that the Titans specialize in). I'd expect him to be the focal point of Indy's passing attack in this matchup. |
| The cherry on top is that Downs may see press coverage. The Chiefs and Jaguars are the only defenses that have used press more than the Titans (77%) in 2024, and Downs ranks top-five in yards per route run vs. press coverage among qualified receivers. |
| I guess you could roll the Chigoziem Okonkwo dice in the Fantasy playoffs! |
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| If grabbing any random TE from the top of the waiver wire to fill in for your Fantasy team is like rolling a D20 (twenty-sided dice that could yield any number from 1-20, inherently presenting a relatively wide range of outcomes), then filling that spot with Chig Okonkwo is like rolling a D100. |
| I downloaded a picture of a D100 from Amazon, for the visual learners among us. |
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| Do you feel lucky? |
| Okonkwo has scored three or fewer Half-PPR points eight different times in 2024. And yet one of the sharpest Fantasy analysts that I know was in my DM's asking me for Okonkwo data first-thing Monday morning. Sick. And even sicker, I had the info he was looking for off of the top of my head! |
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| Why are we curious about Okonkwo? Well, he's shown flashes of being a really productive player with the ball in his hands. And Mason Rudolph went out of his way to get the ball into his hands last week. |
| Okonkwo saw a career-high 10 targets in Week 15. Seven of those came from Rudolph. He ran 10 routes with Rudolph in at QB and drew seven targets. |
| I began researching this matchup curious about Calvin Ridley's splits vs. Cover-3. They're horrible. The Colts use more Cover-3 (42%) than all but two defenses, which often leads to more targets for perimeter receivers. Ridley's problem vs. Cover-3 has not been drawing targets but turning them into production. I was curious if maybe his splits vs. Cover-3 with Rudolph at QB were better, no, they were worse. |
| Guess who has great splits vs. Cover-3 with Rudolph at QB (and over the course of the full season)? Freaking Chig Okonkwo, of course! I don't know what to make of this (my guess is that the perimeter receivers have struggled to get open), and I honestly am not recommending that you play Okonkwo with your season on the line. I have Grant Calcaterra (I hope that I somehow stumble upon this excerpt sometime in the future, this is such a hilarious way to use my time on Earth) ranked ahead of Okonkwo, he presents a safer profile. He ran a route on 92% of Eagles dropbacks in Week 15, Okonkwo's route rate was 53%, for reference. |
| If you need to swing for the fences, I guess that you could roll the dice on Okonkwo in the Fantasy playoffs! Maybe you roll a 100. My preference is definitely to get Strange. Rolling with Brenton Strange feels like rolling five separate twenty-sided dice (D20) -- you could still get up to 100, potentially, and you have no chance of rolling a 1. I hope that you enjoyed this crossover nerd moment involving Fantasy football and table-top games. Best of luck in the semi's, I hope that whichever dice you decide to roll with do show you favor! |
| Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! We do a weekly recap on Mondays and a deep dive with a guest every Thursday; you can find those on YouTube! |
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| | Trips to the NFL Playoffs are on the line in Week 16. Watch it unfold live with a CBS Sports Doubleheader this Sunday starting at 1 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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